Voting
October 26th, 2012 at 7:44:48 AM
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I see an interesting parallel between betting systems and voting.
Betting systems are meant to overcome the house edge. The idea being if you find a combination of bets, a progression, or something else, you'll win consistently. In voting, some people seem to believe their one vote can somehow have an effect that will be decisive, or otherwise compeltely disproportional to its actual effect.
In both cases the root cause, to use the vulgar term, is a kind of self-delusion. In gambling obviously a rigged game, which all games are payout-wise, cannot be beaten by combining bets or using progressions. In an election, one single vote cannot count for mroe than one single vote, whatever the vote happens to be.
Any thoughts?
Betting systems are meant to overcome the house edge. The idea being if you find a combination of bets, a progression, or something else, you'll win consistently. In voting, some people seem to believe their one vote can somehow have an effect that will be decisive, or otherwise compeltely disproportional to its actual effect.
In both cases the root cause, to use the vulgar term, is a kind of self-delusion. In gambling obviously a rigged game, which all games are payout-wise, cannot be beaten by combining bets or using progressions. In an election, one single vote cannot count for mroe than one single vote, whatever the vote happens to be.
Any thoughts?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 7:57:47 AM
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The vast majority of voters identify firmly with one party, and their numbers are pretty close.
So the swing votes in swing districts in swing states indeed have a disproportionate effect on the outcome.
It's small grains of sand dropped on a finely balanced scale.
Of course, the two-party system in itself is pretty broken.
So the swing votes in swing districts in swing states indeed have a disproportionate effect on the outcome.
It's small grains of sand dropped on a finely balanced scale.
Of course, the two-party system in itself is pretty broken.
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October 26th, 2012 at 8:03:47 AM
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2 states decide their electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner take all, so I suppose if you are in a state that always votes one way, then you could move to Nebraska or Maine and try to have your '1 vote' count proportionally more towards garnering a single electoral vote
October 26th, 2012 at 8:09:07 AM
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I see no parallel whatsoever.
Why can't one vote be decisive? Maybe not in a presidential race under our current system, but for state or local races it can.
Why can't one vote be decisive? Maybe not in a presidential race under our current system, but for state or local races it can.
October 26th, 2012 at 8:15:40 AM
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Quote: slyther2 states decide their electoral votes by congressional district instead of winner take all, so I suppose if you are in a state that always votes one way, then you could move to Nebraska or Maine and try to have your '1 vote' count proportionally more towards garnering a single electoral vote
I wonder if you'd do better in a small swing state, or in ME-2 or NE-2. At least this year, you'd probably be more likely to cast a decisive vote as a resident of IA or NV or NH.
I think more states should go to proportional voting. The interplay with congressional districting is fascinating.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 26th, 2012 at 8:21:14 AM
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Name one election with, oh, over 2,000 ballots that was decided by one vote.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 8:36:47 AM
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Quote: NareedQuote: FarFromVegasOkay! :P
So that's one election out of how many millions?
You said one! And there were over 3000 votes, so it fit your criteria. :P
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
October 26th, 2012 at 8:39:01 AM
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Quote: FarFromVegasYou said one! And there were over 3000 votes, so it fit your criteria. :P
Yes, it does. But 1) if I understand the article correctly, new electiosn were required later, and 2) how many elections have there been in the world, and out of those how many were decided by one vote?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 8:39:54 AM
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Quote: NareedQuote: FarFromVegasYou said one! And there were over 3000 votes, so it fit your criteria. :P
Yes, it does. But 1) if I understand the article correctly, new electiosn were required later, and 2) how many elections have there been in the world, and out of those how many were decided by one vote?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_close_election_results
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October 26th, 2012 at 8:42:15 AM
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Quote: NareedQuote: FarFromVegasYou said one! And there were over 3000 votes, so it fit your criteria. :P
Yes, it does. But 1) if I understand the article correctly, new electiosn were required later, and 2) how many elections have there been in the world, and out of those how many were decided by one vote?
Are you trying to change the original terms of the bet????
(Okay, with the HBC ended things are getting dull...;) )
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
October 26th, 2012 at 8:43:21 AM
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Quote: mipletQuote: NareedQuote: FarFromVegasYou said one! And there were over 3000 votes, so it fit your criteria. :P
Yes, it does. But 1) if I understand the article correctly, new electiosn were required later, and 2) how many elections have there been in the world, and out of those how many were decided by one vote?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_close_election_results
Sooo..Canada, eh?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 26th, 2012 at 8:44:35 AM
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Quote: FarFromVegasAre you trying to change the original terms of the bet????
What bet?
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 8:46:20 AM
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Quote: NareedWhat bet?
No bet at all. I was channeling the HBC thread.
Each of us is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.
Preparing for a fight about your bad decision is not as smart as making a good decision.
October 26th, 2012 at 8:49:12 AM
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Quote: NareedName one election with, oh, over 2,000 ballots that was decided by one vote.
2008 Alaska state house rep, district 7 results: out of 9999 votes cast, the republican won by a single vote.
http://www.adn.com/2008/11/03/577002/2008-alaska-general-election-results.html
October 26th, 2012 at 8:51:28 AM
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Actually there is one often-repeated instance where the difference of a single vote is HUGE. I mean, VERY BIG. I mean, HUMONGUOUS (however that's spelled).
But your vote never counts there.
But your vote never counts there.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 8:55:11 AM
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Quote: NareedActually there is one often-repeated instance where the difference of a single vote is HUGE. I mean, VERY BIG. I mean, HUMONGUOUS (however that's spelled).
But your vote never counts there.
On the president's desk?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 26th, 2012 at 8:56:04 AM
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Last year, we had an election in neighboring North Las Vegas for city council that ended in a tie. There were only 300 and some votes though. Fitting for Las Vegas area, the winner was determined by drawing cards. The winner drew a king, the loser a 5. lol
October 26th, 2012 at 8:58:57 AM
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Quote: rdw4potusOn the president's desk?
No.
But it isn't very far from there, as global distances go.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 9:11:26 AM
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Quote: NareedNo.
But it isn't very far from there, as global distances go.
lol. got it. took much longer than it should've. 1 First Street NE?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
October 26th, 2012 at 9:13:29 AM
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Quote: rdw4potuslol. got it. took much longer than it should've. 1 First Street NE?
Do I look like someone who knows street addressess in, pressumably, Washington DC?? ;)
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
October 26th, 2012 at 9:19:29 AM
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Quote: NareedDo I look like someone who knows street addressess in, pressumably, Washington DC?? ;)
That's the address of the US Supreme Court
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
