baccarat system - Can someone explain the stats.
October 25th, 2012 at 5:25:03 PM
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I'm new to this site, and hoping someone can explain the stats to me.
A couple of months ago, I met someone with another baccarat system that was winning him money. I blew it off and just assumed it was working because of a early lucky streak. Basically he was betting Player on baccarat. He would only bet on a new shoe, and martingale the first 4 hands. If the shoe started with 4 bankers (ties ignored) then he lost. After he won a hand, he would leave the shoe and go find a new one.
I know the odds of a 4 banker streak is approximately 6.4%, so eventually he will hit some big losses. However, I got thinking, and here is where a probability pro can help me. Are the odds that a streak will happen at a specific point always 6.4%? Whether he had said that he always plays this method on the 10th hand, or the 20th hand, does the fact that he picks a specific point in the shoe to play affect the odds of getting a run? Also, he only played twice a day. If the casino starts 500 new shoes in a day, and he only plays two of them, what are the odds that a shoe will start with a 4 run banker, and he is betting on one of those shoes? Or is the math no matter how you look at it going to equal 6.4%?
Personally a system is a system, so by no means do I think this works. I just have a lot of free time at work so my brain ponders such questions.
A couple of months ago, I met someone with another baccarat system that was winning him money. I blew it off and just assumed it was working because of a early lucky streak. Basically he was betting Player on baccarat. He would only bet on a new shoe, and martingale the first 4 hands. If the shoe started with 4 bankers (ties ignored) then he lost. After he won a hand, he would leave the shoe and go find a new one.
I know the odds of a 4 banker streak is approximately 6.4%, so eventually he will hit some big losses. However, I got thinking, and here is where a probability pro can help me. Are the odds that a streak will happen at a specific point always 6.4%? Whether he had said that he always plays this method on the 10th hand, or the 20th hand, does the fact that he picks a specific point in the shoe to play affect the odds of getting a run? Also, he only played twice a day. If the casino starts 500 new shoes in a day, and he only plays two of them, what are the odds that a shoe will start with a 4 run banker, and he is betting on one of those shoes? Or is the math no matter how you look at it going to equal 6.4%?
Personally a system is a system, so by no means do I think this works. I just have a lot of free time at work so my brain ponders such questions.
I can show you how to guarantee wins at a casino. Simply buy a casino.
October 25th, 2012 at 6:17:43 PM
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Quote: mic00A couple of months ago, I met someone with another baccarat system that was winning him money.
Welcome to the forum....
The phraseology needs to be corrected. You met someone 'with another baccarat system that as of now has him ahead'. Your saying 'that was winning him money' implies that it will continue to do so.
In a truly randomly shuffled 8 deck shoe when you start is insignificant.
October 25th, 2012 at 8:08:21 PM
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hand #1 bet 1P.
win 49.3175% +1
lose -1 50.6825%
50.7% lost hand 1, hand #2 bet 2P.
win nets+1/3 risked, 24.9953% (total 74.3128%)
lost net -3, 25.6872%
25.7% lost hands 1-2, hand #3 bet 4P.
win net+1/7 risked, 12.6683% (total 86.9811%)
lost net -7, 13.0189%
13.0% lost hands 1-3, hand #4 bet 8P.
win net+1/15 risked, 6.4206% (total 93.4017%)
lost net -15, 6.5983%
6.5983% nets a lost -15 = -0.989745
93.4017% nets a win +1 = +0.934017
total = -0.054728
A quick look at my own database of 282 bacc cards I've personally played over several years:
BBBB=16 #16 #31 #55 #67 #91 #106 #110 #117 #148 #157 #184 #188 #199 #222 #225 #261
BBBp=16
BBpB=19
BBpp=19
BpBB=13
BpBp=17
BppB=25
Bppp=12
pBBB=20
pBBp=21
pBpB=17
pBpp=18
ppBB=16
ppBp=25
pppB=8
pppp=20 #5 #29 #42 #54 #87 #99 #131 #142 #143 #159 #173 #192 #213 #221 #231 #242 #244 #256 #262 #266
If I had played marty on the first 4 Player...
hand 1: 145w-137L
hand 2: 67w-70L
hand 3: 38w-32L
hand 4: 16w-16L
16*-15 = -240
266*+1 = +266
total +16/1092
win 49.3175% +1
lose -1 50.6825%
50.7% lost hand 1, hand #2 bet 2P.
win nets+1/3 risked, 24.9953% (total 74.3128%)
lost net -3, 25.6872%
25.7% lost hands 1-2, hand #3 bet 4P.
win net+1/7 risked, 12.6683% (total 86.9811%)
lost net -7, 13.0189%
13.0% lost hands 1-3, hand #4 bet 8P.
win net+1/15 risked, 6.4206% (total 93.4017%)
lost net -15, 6.5983%
6.5983% nets a lost -15 = -0.989745
93.4017% nets a win +1 = +0.934017
total = -0.054728
A quick look at my own database of 282 bacc cards I've personally played over several years:
BBBB=16 #16 #31 #55 #67 #91 #106 #110 #117 #148 #157 #184 #188 #199 #222 #225 #261
BBBp=16
BBpB=19
BBpp=19
BpBB=13
BpBp=17
BppB=25
Bppp=12
pBBB=20
pBBp=21
pBpB=17
pBpp=18
ppBB=16
ppBp=25
pppB=8
pppp=20 #5 #29 #42 #54 #87 #99 #131 #142 #143 #159 #173 #192 #213 #221 #231 #242 #244 #256 #262 #266
If I had played marty on the first 4 Player...
hand 1: 145w-137L
hand 2: 67w-70L
hand 3: 38w-32L
hand 4: 16w-16L
16*-15 = -240
266*+1 = +266
total +16/1092
