Outrageous craps stystem claim

On u tube is a craps "method" (mind you, not system! lol) selling for large bucks. This ignoramous claims to be able to win 80 - 90% of his bets. He is a flat bettor. He uses very severe stoploss/stopgain. (This is a very important part of his idiotic "method" lol). Alot of his bets are lay bets, (of which he would naturally win about 60% of). I get the impression that most of the other bets are place.

I say, if he CAN win 85% of his hands (even if, say, 50% of his bets are lay) he is pretty well assured to be able to win almost 100% of his sessions.

What is the math of this? Over the long term, what % of sessions will he win.

Of course, you can guess where this is all going-- The same guestions most rational people try to ask these scammers, bet never get a rational answer.

I have been thinking about my somewhat impetuous guestion.

Obviously if he can win 85% of his bets, he can win 85% of his sessions--just make each session one bet long.

And , obviously, he can win 100% of his sessions --just make his session infinitely long (or just life long!)

I wonder if these system scammers are ever embarrassed at themselves.

Quote: ray37

guestion

I have never seen this word before, so I looked it up. It appears to be correct in its usage here.

Quote: urban dictionary definition of "guestion"

Guestion: a question that includes a guess or assumption in it.

The following ARE guestions:

"There's about 5000 jellybeans in that jar wouldnt you say?"

"You've got a laptop in that bag dont you?"

"You probably just got dumped, thats why ya look so sad isnt it?

The following are NOT guestions:

"How many jellybeans do you think are in that jar?"

"What do you have in that bag?"

"Why do you look so sad?"

You might try growing up a bit

ray37,
I have a betting (pattern, system, method, scheme) I thought up that WinCraps consistently shows me to have an 82% win rate. But, like every other system, it is still a loser over time. So, to answer your question, yes, I do think it is possible for someone to play craps in such a way that they can extract a win a large percentage of the time, but they will not be able to use that betting scheme to guarantee themselves to be a winner over their lifetime.

Here is my scheme, in case you were interested. It uses the strategy to put a lot of money at risk for a very short period of time, and use 'house' money to propel to the big wins.

Wait for shooter to set a point (has no effect, other than to align your interests with the shooter's).
Bet $515 across 4,5,6,8,9 ($75,$100,$120,$120,$100) - (Winning bet will pay $140, $147 for the 4, $145 if you get the cheap Buy on the 5/9)
Lay the 10 for $1127 ($1100 Lay and $27 vig).
As soon as one of your bets hits, take all bets down, and bet $128 across (4,5,6,8,9,10).

A winning box bet will pay $140 - $128 across, which guarantees you a win of at least $12 for this shooter. (And much more if he rolls more numbers)
A PSO wins you $550 - $27 vig = $523 - $515 across = $8

THE ONLY WAY this loses money is for the shooter, on his FIRST point, to roll a 10 BEFORE he rolls a 4,5,6,7,8, or 9.
So 3 ways to lose versus 27 ways to win, and 6 rolls are NOP (2,3,11,12).

Of course when a new shooter does eventually roll the 10, you lose $1127, which is usually more than you can manage to win on the other shooters.

I say usually because this scheme does end up positive quite often.

In WinCraps, I set up one shooter to be a 'session'. I then will auto-roll 100 'sessions' to gather my data. So I am looking at 100 'shooters', which I figure is close to an 8 hour craps game. The 'winning' shooters is usually around 82 of the 100. And depending on how big their wins were, I have had times where after 100 shooters the finishing bankroll mean was a positive number. Of course most of the time the mean is negative, which is the expected outcome. But this scheme is the first time I have had multiple positive means returned for over 100 shooters.

I was trying to tweak the auto-bet to figure out the optimal pressing strategy (one unit at a time, pull/press, parlay, etc) when I totally hosed the code, and ended up having to trash everything.

The other problem with this scheme is it is a nightmare to enact.
You are setting all this up RIGHT AFTER the shooter has set the point. It takes a while for the dealer to set up the $515 (only because it is an odd bet), and then the $1127 Lay bet as well. Meanwhile, the shooter is giving you the stink eye, waiting for the dice. Finally it gets set up, and if the shooter then 7s out, you get paid $550, and now get daggers. Or, if the shooter rolls a box number, you get paid ~$140, and then announce you want to take down all of your bets, so down come the box numbers, and then they have to grab the $1100 Lay bet, and grab the $27 in vig, and push that all down to you, take the $140 that you just got paid, and set it up as $128 across. By now the shooter is PISSSSSSSSED, since you have taken extra time on 2 consecutive rolls.

I made 2 bets with a scaled down version of this (both winners), but quickly decided it would only be a good scheme to use sometime when I have a table to myself. There is too much delay in getting the bets up and down.

This is also an easy bet to track so you can play what if. I have had a few craps sessions where there were none or only one 10 rolled right after the new shooter's first point is set. Those sessions would all be very nice wins. But the last time I played, both sessions had a number of 10s thrown as the first number, after the new shooter's first point was set, including one string of 3 new shooters in a row doing it. That would have been catastrophic.

Quote: RaleighCraps

ray37,
I have a betting (pattern, system, method, scheme) I thought up that WinCraps consistently shows me to have an 82% win rate.

That's different than winning 80% of your bets. You're not winning anywhere close to 80% of your bets with your system, but the ones you do win make up for all the losers (usually, that is). The OP says the system is based on flat betting, not a progression, which means that 80% of the actual wagers must win. There aren't any such wagers in craps. The highest hit-rate bet is no-4 which wins less than 67% of the time. No single bet wins 80% of the time. Not even close.

Not that I couldn't make one. The "No-7" bet wins if any number other than 7 is rolled and loses on 7. It wins 83% of the time and pays 7-for-6 for a house edge of 2.78%. But it doesn't exist. The Iron Cross spread is similar but that's four bets, not one. But if you're considering everything you put on the table for any roll as "one bet", then playing the Iron Cross gets you to 83% hit rate.

Quote: RaleighCraps

... I made 2 bets with a scaled down version of this (both winners), but quickly decided it would only be a good scheme to use sometime when I have a table to myself. There is too much delay in getting the bets up and down.

If you had tried this at my end of the table at Harrah's Cherokee on Tuesday, while that novice dealer was working the base at the other end, you would have had no trouble getting all of your bets up and down while she was trying to make her payouts and set things up down there. At least the other players at your/my end could have been entertained watching them move all your chips around, rather than getting bored waiting for the dice to move out. ;-)

Come to think of it, that wasn't you down at the other end, giving the new girl such a hard time, was it?

Quote: Doc

........Come to think of it, that wasn't you down at the other end, giving the new girl such a hard time, was it?

I consider that a personal insult, and will hope the new mod takes swift and appropriate action (that is NONE, of course. lol). I am easy on break in dealers. When we played at the Golden Gate one night, I was betting $110 inside and pressing it by 25 or 30. When I got to 75 on the 5/9 and 90 on the 6/8 the poor girl was panicking so bad she could not figure out the payouts. I had to tell her $105 each time. I can only guess she was still trying to do the math, instead of the process.

I won't even make an experienced crew try to handle this bet, unless I have a table to myself. It is just too unwieldy. I have thought about talking with the box about allowing this to be done as a call bet, since it is only one roll, but I'm sure procedure would not allow for it.

Quote: MathExtremist

That's different than winning 80% of your bets. You're not winning anywhere close to 80% of your bets with your system, but the ones you do win make up for all the losers (usually, that is). The OP says the system is based on flat betting, not a progression, which means that 80% of the actual wagers must win. There aren't any such wagers in craps. The highest hit-rate bet is no-4 which wins less than 67% of the time. No single bet wins 80% of the time. Not even close.

Not that I couldn't make one. The "No-7" bet wins if any number other than 7 is rolled and loses on 7. It wins 83% of the time and pays 7-for-6 for a house edge of 2.78%. But it doesn't exist. The Iron Cross spread is similar but that's four bets, not one. But if you're considering everything you put on the table for any roll as "one bet", then playing the Iron Cross gets you to 83% hit rate.

That is an interesting point. Can you consider the iron cross as 1 'bet', or must it be considered as 4 bets?

If you always play the bets as 1 combined play, then I think you should be able to consider the iron cross as a single bet system.
And, of course, a single bet that ends up losing, like all the rest of them do.

I've been charting betting systems, and they all lose in the long run with random data.

The ones that seem to do the best in the long run are the 4 and 10 starting with $25 each and pressing really really hard.

Basically you put the house in the position that there's not going to be too many 4's or 10's between the sevens. And randomly, with even distribution, that does generally happen .. eventually. It can take nearly 1000 throws for the big win and you draw down constantly with big pressure, but when you hit, it goes to the moon.

With random data, these 4/10 press strategies can last tens of thousands of rolls with drawdowns of less than $1000 and climbing into the tens of thousands.

I'll probably be talking more about this later, but it's one of the best holes in Vegas craps due to the lower edges.

In other words, it's essentially a progression; it's quite likely that you'll hit a big hit early enough that if you walk away, you'll be far better off for it, but if you keep at it, it will screw you. It's comparable to betting a single number in roulette until you hit. You'll probably walk away ahead, and you may be dozens of units up, but if you keep at it, your long downswings will make up for it, and just a smidgen more.

Quote: Ahigh

It can take nearly 1000 throws for the big win and you draw down constantly with big pressure, but when you hit, it goes to the moon.

Twenty hours of rolls accompanied by a major downdraft and no guaranty of success? Sorry, but the astronauts had a much better time of it going to the Moon.

RalleighCraps you very easily can set this bet up, and just tell the dealer when to turn it "on" and "off." There is no need to rush a dealer in setting up the bet, and certainly no reason to remove the chips from the layout.

Quote: AlanMendelson

RalleighCraps you very easily can set this bet up, and just tell the dealer when to turn it "on" and "off." There is no need to rush a dealer in setting up the bet, and certainly no reason to remove the chips from the layout.

I thought about doing that, but a key component is when the $515 bet (with the $1100 Lay 10) across hits, then that is all turned off, but it is replaced with $128 across. So you would already have all of the bets associated with your position at the rail on the felt, and marked OFF. Where would they set up the new $128 bet across?

It's done all the time, to have "one line" off and another "on." All the dealer has to do is switch buttons.

Even on a crowded table they can figure it out.

Quote: AlanMendelson

It's done all the time, to have "one line" off and another "on." All the dealer has to do is switch buttons.

Even on a crowded table they can figure it out.

Thanks for that info. I just assumed that would be a mess, but it sounds like it can be done. That would certainly be the way to go about it. That way, after a 7 out, I could just set the $515 back up right away before the come out roll, but have it OFF. Turn it ON after the point is set. Much quicker.