What is the optimal positive progression after winning a hand?
September 17th, 2012 at 12:53:17 PM
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I have been trying to tweak my positive progression betting system for years and now I am looking to you, the experts.
I play basic strategy with the exception of splitting 5s and 6s ONLY against a dealer's 5 or 6 show card. I play only at 8 deck manually shuffled shoes with the dealer hitting soft 17s.
For my scenario, 1 unit = $5. After every loss, I revert back to the initial bet. If there is a push, the wager remains the same. After each shoe, I start back at the initial bet.
Initial bet: 5 units
After 1st win: Keep 2 units, increase 3 units to 8 total units
After 2nd win: Keep 4 units, increase 4 units to 12 total units
After 3rd win: Keep 8 units, increase 4 units to 16 total units
After 4th win: Keep 12 units, increase 4 units to 20 total units
After 5th win: Keep 15 units, increase 5 units to 25 total units
What is the optimum positive progression that should be used?
I play basic strategy with the exception of splitting 5s and 6s ONLY against a dealer's 5 or 6 show card. I play only at 8 deck manually shuffled shoes with the dealer hitting soft 17s.
For my scenario, 1 unit = $5. After every loss, I revert back to the initial bet. If there is a push, the wager remains the same. After each shoe, I start back at the initial bet.
Initial bet: 5 units
After 1st win: Keep 2 units, increase 3 units to 8 total units
After 2nd win: Keep 4 units, increase 4 units to 12 total units
After 3rd win: Keep 8 units, increase 4 units to 16 total units
After 4th win: Keep 12 units, increase 4 units to 20 total units
After 5th win: Keep 15 units, increase 5 units to 25 total units
What is the optimum positive progression that should be used?
September 17th, 2012 at 12:55:16 PM
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I can not give a valid answer if you are no charting the dealer's before starting any progression. I never start my progression until the dealer has won 5 hands in a row.
September 17th, 2012 at 1:06:00 PM
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Since you aren't counting, and are deviating from BS, the optimum positive progression is: as small as possible. That is, don't increase your bet, or, if you insist on increasing your bet, increase it by $1.
In case there was any doubt, I am being completely serious.
In case there was any doubt, I am being completely serious.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
September 17th, 2012 at 1:18:04 PM
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" In case there was any doubt, I am being completely serious. "
As are both I and John Patrick .
As are both I and John Patrick .
September 17th, 2012 at 1:25:13 PM
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How have you done thus far? How often do you get your max bet out and what is your bankroll?
Even without the answers to those questions this is a recipe for disaster.
Even without the answers to those questions this is a recipe for disaster.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
September 17th, 2012 at 1:30:31 PM
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Why?Quote: TaxmanCPAAfter each shoe, I start back at the initial bet.
Unless you're card counting, there's no reason for this. And doing this may get you flagged as a counter. Note that the opposite is also true. If you maintain your progression even thru the shuffle, then any concerns that you are counting will likely be erased.
As far as the progression program goes, it seems like before every planned casino trip, I bust out Excel and try to work the numbers and progressions differently, trying to answer this very question.
Then, when I get to the casino, I generally do whatever feels right at the time. Sticking to a rigid program sounds too much like work. I'm there to have fun.
Personally, I start at 2 or 3 units, then press 1 unit until I get to 6 units, then press 2 units.
There are exceptions, of course.
When playing craps, I place the 6 and 8, and press them up to $42, where I'll stay for at least two hits. $42 pays $49. There's something fun and sexy about dropping a single white and picking up two greens.... Of course, if I can, I'll continue on until I get to $84. Dropping two whites and picking up a black is even more sexy.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
September 17th, 2012 at 1:45:32 PM
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Quote: TaxmanCPAWhat is the optimum positive progression that should be used?
Optimum for what goal?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
September 17th, 2012 at 2:01:48 PM
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You're in the wrong forum. "Betting Systems" overrides "Blackjack," and there's a reason: the only system that decreases the edge is betting the count*. You can't add up a bunch of negative numbers and get a positive one, or even a greater negative one.
So it depends on what you mean by "optimal." All progressive systems will give you larger and fewer wins. You'll actually increase the edge ever-so-slightly in blackjack with any progressive system, since player wins tend to coincide with cards that benefit the player leaving the shoe. If you want to change the edge, all of "the experts" will tell you the same thing: don't bother (or learn to count). So - assuming what you want is to win big relatively infrequently, it's a matter of where you're willing to make the trade-off. Depending on what your goals are, you might be better off playing craps.
(Also, that deviation lowers your edge with no real upside. I suppose some cowardice in splitting sixes is forgivable, but stop splitting fives, period.)
*If you do this, don't come crying to me when they boot you. Remember, there's nothing but your losses keeping that table there.
So it depends on what you mean by "optimal." All progressive systems will give you larger and fewer wins. You'll actually increase the edge ever-so-slightly in blackjack with any progressive system, since player wins tend to coincide with cards that benefit the player leaving the shoe. If you want to change the edge, all of "the experts" will tell you the same thing: don't bother (or learn to count). So - assuming what you want is to win big relatively infrequently, it's a matter of where you're willing to make the trade-off. Depending on what your goals are, you might be better off playing craps.
(Also, that deviation lowers your edge with no real upside. I suppose some cowardice in splitting sixes is forgivable, but stop splitting fives, period.)
*If you do this, don't come crying to me when they boot you. Remember, there's nothing but your losses keeping that table there.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
September 17th, 2012 at 2:52:03 PM
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All I will say is that if a winning streak is going and the cards are favorable, it is much easier to go from a 25 unit bet to a 40 unit bet after the next winning hand and bumping it up as I'm 'playing with house money'.
DJ, thank you for the tip for not backing down to the initial bet on a new shoe. I started continuing the progression on a new shoe this past trip, and you were correct, the concerns of counting is erased.
Basically, I am trying to gradually increase my bet on a win streak so that when cards are extremely favorable, the progression is masking the favorable cards. I never ever will go and multiply a bet when the cards are favorable. That is just screaming that I would be counting cards.
DJ, thank you for the tip for not backing down to the initial bet on a new shoe. I started continuing the progression on a new shoe this past trip, and you were correct, the concerns of counting is erased.
Basically, I am trying to gradually increase my bet on a win streak so that when cards are extremely favorable, the progression is masking the favorable cards. I never ever will go and multiply a bet when the cards are favorable. That is just screaming that I would be counting cards.
September 17th, 2012 at 2:58:11 PM
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House money?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
September 17th, 2012 at 2:58:20 PM
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Quote: TaxmanCPAAll I will say is that if a winning streak is going and the cards are favorable, it is much easier to go from a 25 unit bet to a 40 unit bet after the next winning hand and bumping it up as I'm 'playing with house money'.
DJ, thank you for the tip for not backing down to the initial bet on a new shoe. I started continuing the progression on a new shoe this past trip, and you were correct, the concerns of counting is erased.
Basically, I am trying to gradually increase my bet on a win streak so that when cards are extremely favorable, the progression is masking the favorable cards. I never ever will go and multiply a bet when the cards are favorable. That is just screaming that I would be counting cards.
You should scrap the progression and start counting. Learn the KO Count. It's a simple, but very effective count.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
September 17th, 2012 at 3:02:53 PM
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I know of a progression system you can use to get a million bucks- guaranteed.
But you'll have to start with about five million.
But you'll have to start with about five million.
"I don't have a gambling problem. I have a financial problem."
September 17th, 2012 at 3:58:28 PM
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DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 17th, 2012 at 4:14:53 PM
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Quote: DanMahownyYou should scrap the progression and start counting. Learn the KO Count. It's a simple, but very effective count.
I am very familiar with the KO Count and other systems.
September 17th, 2012 at 4:21:01 PM
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I got as far as. "splitting fives".
Couldn't bring myself to continue.
Life's too short
Couldn't bring myself to continue.
Life's too short
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief.
- Proverb.
September 17th, 2012 at 5:28:04 PM
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If one were to increase after a win, the optimal amount IMHO is the win% of the game involved, ties included. Thus Blackjack is very close to a 10:7 bet or a 14:10 bet.
10-14-20-28.... Baccarat would increase by about 45% every win (100-145-210-305...) PGP would be 30% or 9:7 (25-32-41-53...)
10-14-20-28.... Baccarat would increase by about 45% every win (100-145-210-305...) PGP would be 30% or 9:7 (25-32-41-53...)
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
September 17th, 2012 at 5:30:10 PM
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Quote: DanMahownyI know of a progression system you can use to get a million bucks- guaranteed.
But you'll have to start with about five million.
I have used Dan Mahowny's system. Drove to Vegas in a $500 car and came back home on a $ 150,000 bus.
September 17th, 2012 at 6:03:27 PM
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What tools have you been using? A sledge hammer and a pry bar?Quote: TaxmanCPAI have been trying to tweak my positive progression betting system for years and now I am looking to you, the experts.
Come on, you are a tax guy and I am sure you use tools (software tax programs) in your trade.
QFIT comes to mind.
$85 can save you lots of time.
http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-simulation.htm
This can be easily programmed.Quote: TaxmanCPAI play basic strategy with the exception of splitting 5s and 6s ONLY against a dealer's 5 or 6 show card. I play only at 8 deck manually shuffled shoes with the dealer hitting soft 17s.
For my scenario, 1 unit = $5. After every loss, I revert back to the initial bet. If there is a push, the wager remains the same. After each shoe, I start back at the initial bet.
Initial bet: 5 units
After 1st win: Keep 2 units, increase 3 units to 8 total units
After 2nd win: Keep 4 units, increase 4 units to 12 total units
After 3rd win: Keep 8 units, increase 4 units to 16 total units
After 4th win: Keep 12 units, increase 4 units to 20 total units
After 5th win: Keep 15 units, increase 5 units to 25 total units
I have 2 programs that can do it.
You should have at least one.
A big time saver.
Just charge an extra $85 to one of your tax clients. Done deal.
My best guess, from running a few sims, is after your $25 bet wins, make it $26.Quote: TaxmanCPAWhat is the optimum positive progression that should be used?
I think someone else already suggested this.
Not enough thrill and excitement for ya!?
OK.
Walter Thomason claims to have a great system. Google his name. He is still alive and well!
http://www.qfit.com/blackjack-progression-systems.htm
http://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless5.htm
My suggestion.
Pay $85 for the QFIT BJ simulator and run your own sims.
Can't afford the 85 bucks?
How about $10?
http://www.dreammakersproducts.com/page2.htm
Blackjack Simulator Pro!
(This can do what you want, way slower than QFIT)
Only you can prevent forest fires.
Good Luck Taxman!
Sounds like a Beatles song
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
September 17th, 2012 at 7:55:29 PM
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Quote: TaxmanCPAI am very familiar with the KO Count and other systems.
Question for Admins: If I call someone who knows how to count but doesn't a monkey, is that considered a personal insult? Is the use of a progression a mitigating factor?
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
September 17th, 2012 at 8:01:29 PM
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Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
September 17th, 2012 at 8:27:26 PM
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Using your system, after winning five in a row you $160. Definitely not optimal. If you were to double your bet size after each win, you would have $800
September 23rd, 2012 at 7:13:17 AM
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I assume that since you're not following basic strategy and not counting that you are playing for entertainment value. I use a basic progression that will keep you at the table a long time and also allows for some upside potential if you get a nice winning streak. The progression is on a win and starts over on a loss. I "jump" to next level in the progression following a BJ, Win on a Double, Win of at least 1.5x on splits, or after a surrender. (1,1,1.5,1.5,2,2,3,3,5,5,7,7,10) Usually to get up very far in the progression you will have to have several "jumps" ahead. But on the long losing streaks you are only betting one unit.
September 27th, 2012 at 3:25:12 PM
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There are a lot of good answers here. For any player not to foloow basic strategy is beyond me.
Anyway: let's assume that a player does not want to count but wants to have the best chance at a win.
I would follow what wrongway does above but cap the bet at 8. I would also walk away after 4 straight losses as Walter Thomason writes in Twenty First Century Blackjack. I have that book and talked to Walter 10 years ago as we both live in Fort Lauderdale. I avoid negative variance and do not need to implement the 4 straight losing hands and walk rule as I buy in with only 5 units. Thanks for sharing that 7Craps.
Counters deal with negative variance as they are pros and should not over bet their bankroll. The recreational player might want to consider it.Yeah, yeah, I know the sims with a billion hands.
I will post the way I play when I am not counting in a new thread.
Anyway: let's assume that a player does not want to count but wants to have the best chance at a win.
I would follow what wrongway does above but cap the bet at 8. I would also walk away after 4 straight losses as Walter Thomason writes in Twenty First Century Blackjack. I have that book and talked to Walter 10 years ago as we both live in Fort Lauderdale. I avoid negative variance and do not need to implement the 4 straight losing hands and walk rule as I buy in with only 5 units. Thanks for sharing that 7Craps.
Counters deal with negative variance as they are pros and should not over bet their bankroll. The recreational player might want to consider it.Yeah, yeah, I know the sims with a billion hands.
I will post the way I play when I am not counting in a new thread.
September 27th, 2012 at 3:28:24 PM
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OMG here we go again with that Kelly Bullshit. It is so useful in games with a negative expectation. ROFLMAO
September 27th, 2012 at 4:22:58 PM
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Buzz,
I was thinking the same thing but Soda posted for a reason. Maybe someone will research Kelly Criterion and know that the optimal bet size for a negative expectation bet is ZERO. Let's hope so!!!!
I was thinking the same thing but Soda posted for a reason. Maybe someone will research Kelly Criterion and know that the optimal bet size for a negative expectation bet is ZERO. Let's hope so!!!!
