minnesotajoe
Joined: Dec 18, 2010
• Posts: 168
July 1st, 2012 at 4:26:19 PM permalink
American Roulette with 0 and 00.. Probability of any random number winning is 1-38; Pays 35-1.

I am asking, what is the probability that any random number will hit at least once within 50 spins.
------
I have a :sigh: betting system for roulette.

Total Bankroll: 450\$
Play the same number, each spin, until
1. it hits once... leave
2. 50 losses in a row and lost 450\$
------
Spins 1-20 bet 5\$ per spin.
Spins 21-40 bet 10\$ per spin.
Spins 41-50 bet 15\$ per spin.

If the number hits at any time, you will have a profit.. the amount that you profit depends on which spin it hits on. I made a chart earlier, I am pretty sure that "ideally" you win on Spin 21... but I would always take Spin 1, personally.
----------------
I understand that on each and every spin.. I have a 1-38 probability of winning.
I understand that the piece of ivory does not have a memory.
I understand that the past results have zero effect on the future.
Roulette tables at casinos have the tree that shows the previous numbers that hit. These numbers have 0 effect on the future bets.

I suggest picking a number that has not hit for the entire tree. Then going with that for the 50 spins. If the tree shows the previous 20 winning numbers... and willing to bet 50 spins.... The history has zero effect on the future... So now I would like to know.. what is the probability that a number will hit at least once during 70 spins....
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
• Posts: 1246
July 1st, 2012 at 5:33:56 PM permalink
You want the probability it hits at least once in 50 spins (which was the original question), not 70 spins (the wrong question).

The answer is 1-(37/38)^50 = 73.64%

Good luck!
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
Switch
Joined: Apr 29, 2010
• Posts: 933
July 1st, 2012 at 5:33:59 PM permalink
Not too difficult to calculate Joe.

The probability that you will NOT hit after 1 spin is 37/38.

So, the probability that you will NOT hit after 50 spins is (37/38)^50 (to the power of 50).

This equals 0.2635763 or roughly 1 in every 3.8 times.

So, you will have a 73.6% success rate of hitting your number within 50 spins but you will lose your complete bankroll every 3.8 goes.

edit: beaten by 3 seconds :-)
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 13528
July 1st, 2012 at 5:34:08 PM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

what is the probability that any random number will hit at least once within 50 spins.

1.0. There is a 1.0 probability that a random number will hit each and every spin.
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
• Posts: 5328
July 1st, 2012 at 6:06:44 PM permalink
" Not too difficult to calculate Joe. "

I respectfully beg to differ. Not all of us are math ***** !
s2dbaker
Joined: Jun 10, 2010
• Posts: 3259
July 2nd, 2012 at 1:22:00 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

" Not too difficult to calculate Joe. "

I respectfully beg to differ. Not all of us are math ***** !

Math Stars?
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
• Posts: 5328
July 2nd, 2012 at 2:02:51 PM permalink
Close , very, very, close !
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
• Posts: 2463
July 4th, 2012 at 12:30:13 PM permalink
removed
silly
I Heart Vi Hart
FatGeezus
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
• Posts: 475
July 5th, 2012 at 7:51:02 AM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

Math Stars?

Chocolate stars.
buzzpaff
Joined: Mar 8, 2011