Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1518
  • Posts: 27036
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
June 17th, 2012 at 5:13:04 PM permalink
What kind of variable and software supports so many significant digits? Personally, I use C++ and they best I know of is the 64-bit integer, which can support unsigned integers as high as 2^64 -1 =~ 1.84 *10^19.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
7craps
7craps
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
June 17th, 2012 at 5:22:24 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Buzzpaff, could you run a simulation of this system for me. It's for single zero roulette. Only problem is that it has to be a roulette simulator. The system requires that you rebet the last bet whenever a zero comes up. That way the progression itself is 50/50 18 blacks vs. 18 reds. What you do is basically D'Alembert the Martingale, but instead of dropping back down to 1 unit after a win, you just bet half the last bet. So you double the bet every time you lose, and you bet half of the last bet when you win. Like this 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-32-16-8-4-2-1. And, if a zero comes up you bet the same amount again. So, if you bet 32 and a zero come up, you don't double the bet, you just bet 32 again.

If you, or anybody else, can run that simulation you'll see the game wins outright.
Feel free to post the results here. I think the bankroll would be too high to play in real life. If it's playable in real life, I'd be happy to take a Vegas kick back on the winnings :) But, I think the bankroll would be to high, and the casinos won't have a High Roller table that would handle the biggest bets on that progression.

I've got another game that wins outright, and also is playable in real life casino play.

Nope. It does not win outright.

But you will never believe another's simulation results and I charge $250,000 US to show my code and results.
I doubt you would pay me or even understand my code if you did pay me.

So, Roulette Xtreme 2.0 software, I think $30 after 30 days free use, has a basic D'Alembert_System
here is a bit of that code.

"system "D'Alembert_System"

{D'Alembert System
is one of the oldest money management plans there are, for "even chances"
betting, all having in common that you add and subtract a fixed
amount to your bet, after a loss or win.
}
method "main"
begin
While Starting a New Session
begin
Clear All Records;
Clear Record "Initial Bet" data;
Clear Record "Current Layout to Bet" data;
Put 1 on Record "Initial Bet" data;
Call "Setup Layout";
call "Make Bets";
Exit;
end

While Record "Current Layout to Bet" layout has lost each time
begin
"

I even adjusted it to your progression, way too easy, and 1 million players out of 1 million players busted out a $100,000 starting bankroll.
I was pissed off. I thought you said your progression is a winner, oh I see... my code is just flat out wrong.

So I gave them all a $1 million bankroll. and re-ran the simulation after running the first in manual mode to make sure my code was working 100% correctly. It was.
It took 18 hours as the Roulette Xtreme is NOT a super fast sim program.

Again, 1 million players played your progression and ALL 1 million busted out with a $1 million starting bankroll.

Now, some took a long time to bust, but they all busted out.
Good news... Many increased their bankroll, a few 2 to 3 times, but they all busted out...
they ALL crashed and burned.


Go and pay the $30, study the program on how to code it, they give you a FREE help pdf on doing just that,
so you can prove to yourself that my simulation results are all wrong.

Code the program yourself, any 10 year old could do it.
After that, You will have your proof and we will then give both code and results to the Wizard, pay him $10,000 US so he can see who is actually right.
and I will then pay you $500,000 US for your code and proof once the Wizard says I messed up my simulation and yours was perfect.

Easy money

Maybe your other HE beater is even better
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
teliot
teliot
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
June 17th, 2012 at 5:26:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What kind of variable and software supports so many significant digits? Personally, I use C++ and they best I know of is the 64-bit integer, which can support unsigned integers as high as 2^64 -1 =~ 1.84 *10^19.

This is Java -- it's fantastic for this type of study. All these operations are "string" operations, so the length is bounded only by the maximum string length. You really can't do much in C/C++, using their standard data types, to explore progressions with exponentially increasing wagers.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 548
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
June 17th, 2012 at 5:47:46 PM permalink
Did you remember to rebet the same amount after a zero hits? $10 million dollars for the D'Alemberting of a Martingale system may be a bit low of a bankroll, don't you think? If you're simulator can't handle a higher bankroll and higher bets you may have to do the math for yourself. Let me help you out.

If you played a regular D'alembert system and just rebet the zeros on a single zero roulette game. The D'alembert would win outright, IF (and here's the part that is pure fantasy) the bets stayed under 18. See, once it gets over 18 the D'alembert rebet the zero would lose. However, what would happen if the bets just never got higher then 18. If you produced 18 reds and 18 blacks and 1 zero every 37 trials. The zero would be the amount you pay to the house, so as long as it's not over 18 that you pay to the house, the game would win outright. Too bad that's not what happens in real life.

D'Alemberting the Martingale wins outright, the math supports it. If you can't do the math I can't help you. What kind of bankroll you would need is beyond me. I can see it getting expensive for a while. But, then again, maybe not too expensive.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
  • Threads: 112
  • Posts: 5328
Joined: Mar 8, 2011
June 17th, 2012 at 5:51:18 PM permalink
" You're going to steal my game and pass it off as your own buzzpaff. :) That's mean. Why wouldn't you just kick me down some money from the winnings? "


It's not personal. It's business.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 548
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
June 17th, 2012 at 5:57:08 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Here is a sample run:

42863, -241207412449447036140971876821778455157534251978759957126409300637
42864, -662456579123675782932643987556460184433114633580956402143653210781
42866, 601290920899010457442372344647585003393626511225632932908078519651
42871, 1233164670910353577629880510749607597306997083628927600433944384867
139114, -3466484941094692118866955177500041225330884766622371610520556102223
139115, 3273501725692967829799798594254866443078401339012771509755346460081
139116, 6643495059086797804133175480132320277283044391830343069893297741233
139123, 13383481725874457752799929251887227945692330497465486190169200303537



One more thing, you're results still don't make any kind of sense.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 548
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
June 17th, 2012 at 5:57:53 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

" You're going to steal my game and pass it off as your own buzzpaff. :) That's mean. Why wouldn't you just kick me down some money from the winnings? "


It's not personal. It's business.



LOL. That's mean, BuzzPaff.
tupp
tupp
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 519
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
June 17th, 2012 at 7:07:33 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Here is a sample run:


1, -1
2, 1
5, 3
9, 7
22, 18
43, 40
67, -60
69, 132
109, 353
113, 737
133, -383
134, 1665
136, -1407
137, -5503
139, 6785
168, 13665
197, -11743
198, -44511
201, 53793
205, 119329
210, -134623
212, 258593
218, 520737
274, -533983
275, 1563169
277, 3136033
350, 6298145
577, 12775074
671, 26037922
694, 53825186
703, -42643806
704, -176861534
705, -445296990
706, -982167902
707, -1519038814
710, 360009378
716, 729108130
778, 1646612130
876, 3350793890
1003, 6788183714
1095, 13956249250
1185, 31383582370
1188, -28745959774
1189, -97465436510
1190, -234904389982
1191, -509782296926
1197, 74333255330
1208, 366391031458
1211, 778707891874
1219, -1076717979998
1220, -3275741235550
1221, -7673787746654
1222, -16469880768862
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1226, 18714491319970
1229, 53898863408802
3465, 113930966307550
3488, 297549408146142
3572, 602801323807454
3695, 1206020890596062
3825, 2462590882452190
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6025, -4434992758739412569348
6028, 2648556965565055251196
6031, 7370923448434700464892
6056, -18823453136232862829828
6057, -56602384999190024539396
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6059, -283275976176932994796804
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6245, 120978755771055118002195149564
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9714, 6580164991905394865322712194527146748
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11577, 3763715660499825789332228819515881698044
11618, 9569783546088338322176058058820426806012
11628, -7104052433037646387529297705336215555332
11630, 25563054791372446104954664608113532744444
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11812, 297447336733206493496318072139036053353212
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11819, -660787808516156219616544822388823230106884
11820, -2054584383424320165962527214429345824230660
11821, -3448380958332484112308509606469868418354436
11822, -6235974108148812005000474390550913606601988
11823, -11811160407781467790384403958713003983097092
11826, -17386346707414123575768333526875094359592196
11827, -39687091905944746717304051799523455865572612
11828, 4914398491116499565767384745773267146388220
11830, -61987837104475369858839770072171817371553028
11831, 27215143689647122707303103018421628652368636
11832, 71816634086708368990374539563718351664329468
11840, -218093053494189731849589797980710347913415940
11841, -574904976670679702114161290343084132009102596
11842, -1288528823023659642643304275067831700200475908
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11850, 1922778485564750089737839156193532356660703996
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11899, 118421871402688725381120431412508572863902397180
11934, 242592420668107235033191310754614649729201353468
12143, 485436385507506455732944514884618982348575093500
12208, 1102631809622039981798087053798435035388089086716
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12220, 8044764586943828843265590009200779378753768665852
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12323, 196578475802630305291540933429601288914369066709756
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42220, 5274324930444724143775525372856315546791768527211648355
42228, -3729086372142372899079763411651750906968323815617014429
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42262, -11870468932992407459108481993387768444942875402217400989
42265, -24130433259919518325975258210590241913892788379686218397
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42268, -48650361913773740059708810644995188851792614334623853213
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42395, -4819811830728632375910891938782191372657802400466643921565
42396, -11096913566115313139746681361989857788760157844930678434461
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42462, -5691873984091061404411136109364927964361391835084881912605341
42463, -12119626161127022506578984478729578374450203810216053253810845
42469, -15333502249645003057662908663411903579494609797781638924413597
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42471, -53900015311860769670669998879599806040027481648568666971646621
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42745, 21345700197186848116402403020617085779414565888912327984771290467
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42752, 179314137700022628163279444546122734257757208989735994866237756771
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42864, -662456579123675782932643987556460184433114633580956402143653210781
42866, 601290920899010457442372344647585003393626511225632932908078519651
42871, 1233164670910353577629880510749607597306997083628927600433944384867
139114, -3466484941094692118866955177500041225330884766622371610520556102223
139115, 3273501725692967829799798594254866443078401339012771509755346460081
139116, 6643495059086797804133175480132320277283044391830343069893297741233
139123, 13383481725874457752799929251887227945692330497465486190169200303537


I usually walk away at $601290920899010457442372344647585003393626511225632932908078519650.
thecesspit
thecesspit
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
June 17th, 2012 at 8:26:02 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Quote: teliot

Here is a sample run:

42863, -241207412449447036140971876821778455157534251978759957126409300637
42864, -662456579123675782932643987556460184433114633580956402143653210781
42866, 601290920899010457442372344647585003393626511225632932908078519651
42871, 1233164670910353577629880510749607597306997083628927600433944384867
139114, -3466484941094692118866955177500041225330884766622371610520556102223
139115, 3273501725692967829799798594254866443078401339012771509755346460081
139116, 6643495059086797804133175480132320277283044391830343069893297741233
139123, 13383481725874457752799929251887227945692330497465486190169200303537



One more thing, you're results still don't make any kind of sense.



Make sense to me. He's done what you asked for. They show a clear pattern. You not said what doesn't make sense, so it's hard to help you.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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June 17th, 2012 at 8:39:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What kind of variable and software supports so many significant digits? Personally, I use C++ and they best I know of is the 64-bit integer, which can support unsigned integers as high as 2^64 -1 =~ 1.84 *10^19.



Apparently, that's 1 thing that doesn't make sense. The computer programming stuff is way over my head. Right?

Maybe, you should send the Wizard that program. If it's better than the one he has, I'm sure he'll appreciate you sending it to him.
rdw4potus
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June 17th, 2012 at 9:24:41 PM permalink
I really wasn't sure about this thread. Then I made it through page 5. That was some funny stuff!

Of course this system fails. Every bet is subjected to the same house edge. How would piling on more negative expectation bets result in an expected win instead of a bigger expected loss? What are the odds that a professional gaming mathematician with a PhD messed this up instead of the guy with the insane system messing this up?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
mustangsally
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June 17th, 2012 at 9:33:35 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I really wasn't sure about this thread. Then I made it through page 5. That was some funny stuff!

Of course this system fails. Every bet is subjected to the same house edge. How would piling on more negative expectation bets result in an expected win instead of a bigger expected loss?

Would be way better off moving over to Craps where one can make 4 bets with 0% house edge and even do a progression on those bets only with high enough odds.
Quote: rdw4potus

What are the odds that a professional gaming mathematician with a PhD messed this up instead of the guy with the insane system messing this up?

That is so silly!

Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
gameterror
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June 18th, 2012 at 4:26:29 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

This is Java -- it's fantastic for this type of study. All these operations are "string" operations, so the length is bounded only by the maximum string length. You really can't do much in C/C++, using their standard data types, to explore progressions with exponentially increasing wagers.



you can do the same with c++. just create your own class for big numbers. this is not something java specific. java also doesn't have standard types for this. you could code your own c++ big integer class and define the operators and use it
Things have never been so swell I have never failed to fail
Tiltpoul
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June 18th, 2012 at 6:43:59 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I really wasn't sure about this thread. Then I made it through page 5. That was some funny stuff!



I agree. I saw the thread in betting systems, so did my check to see if the poster was a newbie, where I would give my standard Welcome to the Forum, please read the site about betting systems... blah blah blah. He wasn't so I didn't find it necessary.

Then it became the most civilized mudslinging I've seen on here. The OP was very polite about his disagreements and told teliot that there was no way the math could be correct. Nearly every math person has chimed in and said how the system will fail in the future. Yet the OP has questioned the math. Heck, you've got one poster willing to give a LOT of money if it can work...

Okay, back to my regularly scheduled life...
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
EvenBob
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June 18th, 2012 at 11:12:16 AM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

Nearly every math person has chimed in and said how the system will fail in the future. Yet the OP has questioned the math.



This happens all the time on roulette forums. A guy
will chime in that he has the Grail, he just needs
it tested. So a couple mathguys test it and proclaim
it dead in the water. The OP goes batshit berzerk
and calls them names and questions their sanity
and is never seen again. For entertainment value
you can't beat it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
buzzpaff
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June 18th, 2012 at 11:48:24 AM permalink
" The OP goes batshit berzerk
and calls them names and questions their sanity
and is never seen again. "

Possibly the OP has decided not to share his system with ungrateful people.
And now lives on the Isle of Mann to avoid the taxes on his winnings.
I mean that's what my cousin did !
Wizard
Administrator
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June 18th, 2012 at 11:51:44 AM permalink
A bit off topic, but suppose there is a betting system as follows, based on the toss of a coin. Fractional betting is allowed. No minimum or maximum bet.

w(n) = wager on n-th bet.
w(1)=1
w(n)=2*w(n-1) if w(n-1) lost, and w(n-1)/2 if w(n-1) won, where n>1. In other words, double your bet after a loss, and cut it in half after a win.

This seems to be the same system you were discussing, but there is no 1 unit minimum.

What is the expecected wager of the n-th bet?

(5/4)^n
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mrjjj
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June 18th, 2012 at 12:49:22 PM permalink
I agree with EvenBob and Buzzpaff. Why? Dont post your method expecting people (math guys, whatever) to test it AND

"Possibly the OP has decided not to share his system with ungrateful people" >>> I also agree with this.

In regards to roulette, if you have something 'special' (no such thing as a HG), keep it to yourself and march on. Tweak it along the way ONLY IF NEEDED.

Ken
guido111
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June 18th, 2012 at 1:06:13 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

I agree with EvenBob and Buzzpaff. Why? Dont post your method expecting people (math guys, whatever) to test it...
In regards to roulette, if you have something 'special' (no such thing as a HG), keep it to yourself and march on. Tweak it along the way ONLY IF NEEDED.
Ken

This forum has people that (like to) test the "cant lose" betting systems.
It is a simple challenge to accept.

Even "teliot" on Father's Day ran a simulation.
I'm impressed!

Many betting systems can be evaluated over time with just EV and Average Bet, but that is too challenging for most system creators.

I must admit, the OP came up with a good one (different) this time.
But it still remains filed away in the "betting system" folder
mrjjj
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June 18th, 2012 at 1:16:16 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

This forum has people that (like to) test the "cant lose" betting systems.
It is a simple challenge to accept.

Even "teliot" on Father's Day ran a simulation.
I'm impressed!

Many betting systems can be evaluated over time with just EV and Average Bet, but that is too challenging for most system creators.

I must admit, the OP came up with a good one (different) this time.
But it still remains filed away in the "betting system" folder




PART of my point is this....lets say an anti-method guy (bias) tested something and the results were not 'terrible' (open to interpretation I guess), I feel that SOME (not all) of the testers would not post the actual results (let the arguing begin). It is my opinion, I'm entitled to it and I was polite.

Also, I have been playing two methods for YEARS (not posted) with GREAT results BUT if the two were 'tested', it would probably end up being filed away in the "betting system" folder. THANK GOD I have never relied on 'buddies' at the various boards to help me pay my bills, I would be fu***d.

Ken
guido111
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June 18th, 2012 at 1:34:52 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

PART of my point is this....lets say an anti-method guy (bias) tested something and the results were not 'terrible' (open to interpretation I guess), I feel that SOME (not all) of the testers would not post the actual results (let the arguing begin). It is my opinion, I'm entitled to it and I was polite.

Also, I have been playing two methods for YEARS (not posted) with GREAT results BUT if the two were 'tested', it would probably end up being filed away in the "betting system" folder. THANK GOD I have never relied on 'buddies' at the various boards to help me pay my bills, I would be fu***d.

Ken

Understandable.
But ALL betting systems win sometimes, but not all the time.

When you say you have been playing for YEARS, I would only want to know exactly how many times you actually made that progression bet.

The truth of ALL betting systems is every system will fail in a casino sooner or later and if millions played a system, it would be front page news on how poorly it did overall for everyone, not just how well it did for a few.

We know the few that did win, would hold seminars and charge big bucks to sell the winning system for them. They would just say those that lost using the system did not play it right or come up with a few other good "weasel' clauses.

cute


Testing a system shows its strengths and weaknesses over time.
And time is what we really want to know about,
the number of times a system can be "safely" played until a progression is busted.
(safely is relative of course depending on the bet size and starting bankroll)

Guessing and one player playing a system for years will never give the correct answers that are required to compare systems.

Some betting systems are way better than others.
But we know some are down-right awful.
Woldus
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:19:45 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Did you remember to rebet the same amount after a zero hits? $10 million dollars for the D'Alemberting of a Martingale system may be a bit low of a bankroll, don't you think? If you're simulator can't handle a higher bankroll and higher bets you may have to do the math for yourself. Let me help you out.

D'Alemberting the Martingale wins outright, the math supports it. If you can't do the math I can't help you. What kind of bankroll you would need is beyond me. I can see it getting expensive for a while. But, then again, maybe not too expensive.



I enjoyed reading up to this point and was really impressed with the EXTENSIVE help and courtesy given to the OP. I'm willing to take my punishment for this part though...DO YOUR OWN FUCKING MATH! I'm astounded at how dense you are! If you were talking to some rando in the subway about your magic beans and they disagreed I could understand you not getting on board - but check out some of the pedigrees here as well as the voluminous posts about betting systems.

You started the thread suggesting you had a "winner" but needed someone here to run the math - then after multiple well-reasoned and documented responses showing how you're system is not going to win you claim the people you asked to help you are wrong...ROFLMAO!
Woldus
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:19:45 PM permalink
Duplicate...sorry
thecesspit
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:19:46 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

PART of my point is this....lets say an anti-method guy (bias) tested something and the results were not 'terrible' (open to interpretation I guess), I feel that SOME (not all) of the testers would not post the actual results (let the arguing begin). It is my opinion, I'm entitled to it and I was polite.

Also, I have been playing two methods for YEARS (not posted) with GREAT results BUT if the two were 'tested', it would probably end up being filed away in the "betting system" folder. THANK GOD I have never relied on 'buddies' at the various boards to help me pay my bills, I would be fu***d.

Ken



If we are talking Roulette, and the test uses a RNG (even one using a entropy source, before we start on that route), the method will show the same loss as all the others. 5.26% per bet. It's not bias, it's actually using an unbiased measuring stick. Consistency, Ken, one of your watchwords. You might not like the stick being used, but at least it's always the same one. I would publish if I found something that was "not terrible", as I'd expect I had made an error in my code over finding the holy-grail of gambling

Some folks will argue a psuedo-Random Number Generator will have a bias that is not truly random and is no good. I don't agree with them, but eliminating points of friction in a test is reasonable way to go.

I was going to do a quick test of JyBrd system (which is a betting progression system), but teliot got there first and faster and better.

It is possible (but completely unproven) that using a roulette wheel to provide the source data would give you different results. For a betting progression system, I'd be highly skeptical if that was shown. For a system that looks a previous results (your systems, as I understand them always look at previous spins) such a phenomena would be interesting.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
7craps
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:34:14 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I was going to do a quick test of JyBrd system (which is a betting progression system), but teliot got there first and faster and better.

It is very possible that the OP can do the math on his own or even run a simulation on his own.
Maybe he wanted to see what others came up with first.
NOT!

I even pointed the way to a cheap Roulette simulator that anyone can program any method, with a little learning curve, or even pay the website to do if for you.

For simulations, I have found that even when we hold their hand and walk them through each and every step together, on their own, they are clueless!
They blame the code that someone else wrote on the simulation's failure or the results failure because they do not understand what the sim spit out.
I have seen this many, many times, that the only flaw was they not following every setup instruction to the letter.

Next!
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
mustangsally
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:39:30 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit


It is possible (but completely unproven) that using a roulette wheel to provide the source data would give you different results. For a betting progression system, I'd be highly skeptical if that was shown. For a system that looks a previous results (your systems, as I understand them always look at previous spins) such a phenomena would be interesting.

There are millions of actual recorded Roulette spins available on the web. You just have to believe that claim that they are real and in order.

I have found most gamblers that have some sense of math knowledge refuse to believe what a computer simulation can show since each spin on a Roulette wheel can never be duplicated by a computer.
That then means a computer simulation for Roulette and the results are useless and meaningless.
I Heart Vi Hart
thecesspit
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:47:09 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

There are millions of actual recorded Roulette spins available on the web. You just have to believe that claim that they are real and in order.



I've not looked recently, but I'd figure there also is a "true" random source of noise somewhere available on the internet.

Quote:

I have found most gamblers that have some sense of math knowledge refuse to believe what a computer simulation can show since each spin on a Roulette wheel can never be duplicated by a computer.
That then means a computer simulation for Roulette and the results are useless and meaningless.



Hmm, are you saying IT IS useless or YOU believe it to be useless or OTHERS believe it to be so?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
thecesspit
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June 18th, 2012 at 2:48:16 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Apparently, that's 1 thing that doesn't make sense. The computer programming stuff is way over my head. Right?

Maybe, you should send the Wizard that program. If it's better than the one he has, I'm sure he'll appreciate you sending it to him.



He doesn't need to send it. He published it for all to see.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 4:23:15 PM permalink
Didn't mean to skip out on you guys today, but I had things to do today.

Someone pointed out that there was an offer of $500,000 if the game is a winner. I don't think that's a real offer, but I'll of course take the $500,000:) I know there's a real offer from MichaelBlueJay out there. I've got a little change I can make to this game that will make the math for this game extremely simple to do. I'm curious if it shows the game to be and outright winner (at some point winning and never going into the negative again) will that win the challenge? I mean the game obviously won't meet the table limit qualifications, but if it wins outright, showing that a betting system can indeed beat a HE game. Does that win the challenge?

I'll post the change I'm making to the system tonight or tomorrow, either way, but I'm just curious if that wins the challenge or not? Anyone else want to throw monies on the table?

I haven't heard much talk about the math on this game, except the regular every bet is subject to a HE so the game would lose.

Here's something 3 losses 2 wins D'alembert Lose 16-17-18 Win 19-18 Total loss of 14 units.

3 losses 2 wins D'alembert the Martingale Lose 16-32-64 Win 128-64 Total Win of 80 units.

That's a negative HE isn't it? 3 losses and only 2 wins? That would count as an HE, right?
rdw4potus
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June 18th, 2012 at 5:24:51 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

The system requires that you rebet the last bet whenever a zero comes up. That way the progression itself is 50/50 18 blacks vs. 18 reds.



Sure, the progression is 50/50 on the blacks & reds. And it loses the value of the last bet whenever a zero comes up. and that happens 1/37th of the time. And 1/37th is the house edge in single-0 roulette.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 5:30:55 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Sure, the progression is 50/50 on the blacks & reds. And it loses the value of the last bet whenever a zero comes up. and that happens 1/37th of the time. And 1/37th is the house edge in single-0 roulette.



Exactly.
rdw4potus
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June 18th, 2012 at 5:32:24 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Exactly.



So you accept now that it's a loser?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 5:52:58 PM permalink
No, you're helping me prove it's a winner. 18 reds vs 18 blacks and 1 zero, and all you have to pay the house is whatever the zero lands on.

Lose 5 win 4 1-2-4-8-16 = -31 16-8-4-2-1 = 31. Broke even on that scenario. There's other scenarios, of course, win 1 lose 2 win 1 lose 3 win 2 etc. Question becomes how rare is lose 4 in a row, have a zero hit, then win 4 in a row vs. win 1 lose 2 win 1 lose 3 win 3 etc. have a zero hit somewhere there. Somebody grab a mathematician. LOL But I personally come up with, the game wins outright.

Try this lose 5 win 4 zero lands on first bet.

1-1-2-4-8 total loss of 16 units

16-8-4-2 Total win of 30 units.

Net profit 14 units vs the 1st scenario where the zero landed on 16 and that ...... broke even, right? Those 2 scenarios produce a profit of 14 units, right?

I can make a change to the system that will make the math easier to do.
Mission146
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June 18th, 2012 at 5:53:06 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

Did you remember to rebet the same amount after a zero hits? $10 million dollars for the D'Alemberting of a Martingale system may be a bit low of a bankroll, don't you think? If you're simulator can't handle a higher bankroll and higher bets you may have to do the math for yourself. Let me help you out.



If that's too low of a bankroll, I have absolutely zero use for your system, even if it works. I suspect the same would be the case for some 99.9999%+ of gamblers.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 5:55:31 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

If that's too low of a bankroll, I have absolutely zero use for your system, even if it works. I suspect the same would be the case for some 99.9999%+ of gamblers.



It's just a novelty game Mission146. But, it shows a betting system can beat an HE game, outright.
EvenBob
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June 18th, 2012 at 6:00:53 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

It's just a novelty game Mission146. But, it shows a betting system can beat an HE game, outright.



Have you read this thread? It shows just the opposite, its
a loser. Why do you keep using the word 'outright'? What
do you mean? Either it wins or it doesn't, whats outright got
to do with anything.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Mission146
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June 18th, 2012 at 6:09:39 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

It's just a novelty game Mission146. But, it shows a betting system can beat an HE game, outright.



If you really want to know one of the major reasons the system fails (even aside from basically ignoring a loss on zero) it is because when you take your biggest theoretical loss on a roll, you can no longer double the bet due to Table Maximum. Furthermore, losing streaks, however small and spread out, will eventually run you into the table limit.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
rdw4potus
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June 18th, 2012 at 6:10:42 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

No, you're helping me prove it's a winner. 18 reds vs 18 blacks and 1 zero, and all you have to pay the house is whatever the zero lands on.

Lose 5 win 4 1-2-4-8-16 = -31 16-8-4-2-1 = 31. Broke even on that scenario. There's other scenarios, of course, win 1 lose 2 win 1 lose 3 win 2 etc. Question becomes how rare is lose 4 in a row, have a zero hit, then win 4 in a row vs. win 1 lose 2 win 1 lose 3 win 3 etc. have a zero hit somewhere there. Somebody grab a mathematician. LOL But I personally come up with, the game wins outright.

Try this lose 5 win 4 zero lands on first bet.

1-1-2-4-8 total loss of 16 units

16-8-4-2 Total win of 30 units.

Net profit 14 units vs the 1st scenario where the zero landed on 16 and that ...... broke even, right? Those 2 scenarios produce a profit of 14 units, right?

I can make a change to the system that will make the math easier to do.



It seems like you don't trust the math or programming of the experts who have responded so far. Let's try this general scenario.

You might win, you might lose. If you ignore 0, winning and losing are a 50/50 shot. Your bet might be 1, it might be 100; so, you might win or lose 1, you might win or lose 100. On average, your average bet will be some number n. Since (ignoring 0) wins and losses are equally likely to occur, that average bet n applies equally to your wins and losses. That's a break even game, not a winner. Then, you accept an average loss of n units when a 0 hits. A 0 hits 1/37th of the time. That makes this progression a loser at a rate of exactly 1/37th of the total wager per spin. And that's exactly what's expected to happen, since the house edge in roulette is a constant and not a variable.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 6:14:00 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Either it wins or it doesn't, whats outright got
to do with anything.



It means you're not ahead some of the time, and behind some of the time. The game ,after a certain point, is always ahead. In other words, it's profitable, unlike the martingale. The martingale just eventually breaks even, it's not a profitable system.
AcesAndEights
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June 18th, 2012 at 6:14:57 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

I usually walk away at $601290920899010457442372344647585003393626511225632932908078519650.


This is the best post in this thread. I award you one internets!
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
buzzpaff
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June 18th, 2012 at 7:32:22 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Sure, the progression is 50/50 on the blacks & reds. And it loses the value of the last bet whenever a zero comes up. and that happens 1/37th of the time. And 1/37th is the house edge in single-0 roulette.



We are having an intelligent discussion here. Please do not muddy up the waters with facts. Thanks for your co-operation.
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 7:55:18 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

We are having an intelligent discussion here. Please do not muddy up the waters with facts. Thanks for your co-operation.



LOL.
weaselman
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June 18th, 2012 at 7:59:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

What kind of variable and software supports so many significant digits? Personally, I use C++ and they best I know of is the 64-bit integer, which can support unsigned integers as high as 2^64 -1 =~ 1.84 *10^19.


Sounds like you are looking for a BigInt library.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
EvenBob
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June 18th, 2012 at 8:49:37 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

The game ,after a certain point, is always ahead.



Yes, thats every system players fantasy. And thats what it is, a fantasy.
You can only get ahead and stay ahead by making correct bets, not
goofing around with the money managment.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
JyBrd0403
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June 18th, 2012 at 9:07:52 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You can only get ahead and stay ahead by making correct bets, not
goofing around with the money managment.



I'll give you a $20 bankroll and a $5 minimum table. 19 reds and 18 blacks on a roulette table. Do you need a higher bankroll, or do you win that game outright?

Does making the correct bets matter, in this situation?
EvenBob
EvenBob
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Joined: Jul 18, 2010
June 18th, 2012 at 9:11:46 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

I'll give you a $20 bankroll and a $5 minimum table. 19 reds and 18 blacks on a roulette table.



Can you post a pic of that table, I'd like to see it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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Joined: Jan 25, 2010
June 18th, 2012 at 9:14:29 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Can you post a pic of that table, I'd like to see it.



Use your imagination. Or make the damn table yourself. Ya know.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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June 18th, 2012 at 9:17:42 PM permalink
I can provide the plans for a digital version of that table. I include it in my package for AP roulette training. Pm me for the
price of the training package. And yes, i do take paypal.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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June 18th, 2012 at 9:24:24 PM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

I'll give you a $20 bankroll and a $5 minimum table. 19 reds and 18 blacks on a roulette table. Do you need a higher bankroll, or do you win that game outright?

Does making the correct bets matter, in this situation?



You need a higher bankroll. What happens if you get unlucky and lose the first 4 spins in a row? Also, yes, making the correct bets matters. Would you bet on black on that table?
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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Joined: Jan 25, 2010
June 18th, 2012 at 9:28:04 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

You need a higher bankroll. What happens if you get unlucky and lose the first 4 spins in a row? Also, yes, making the correct bets matters. Would you bet on black on that table?



You just said it didn't matter (you need a higher bankroll). In that case why not bet for black? It might just win. Either way, you're going to lose your bankroll on this positive expectation game. Bet black or red in this situation and see what happens, right? I mean it doesn't matter, right?
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