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MauiSunset
MauiSunset
Joined: Jun 5, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
June 13th, 2012 at 5:55:26 AM permalink
When a Roulette player finally realizes that the Odds Table and the Payout Table can't be changed then the only way to "win" at Roulette is to "Understand Random Numbers", and/or to Play with an Advantage, "Advantage Play (AP)", by finding numbers that spin out too frequently and thus should be bet on.

Right.

There are folks who claim they can "read" random numbers like a fortune teller "reads" your hand. Sadly I can't do either.

I don't know of a single case of clairvoyance that is documented - in ANYTHING that has a random probability of happening. This applies to gambling and investing. But maybe there is a case documented? If so I'd love to get a link. (Stocks go up because there is inflation in an economy and some companies do a good job, but no super secret technical indicator that exists. A monkey throwing darts at the WSJ will out perform 80% of the Wizards of Wall street; I remember reading actual studies of monkeys doing just that)


That leaves AP. This seems to be the last bastion for folks to brag they can "beat Roulette" and never have to prove it. How would they prove it since the wheel at a particular Roulette table may have been swapped out for maintenance, like a diamond mark wearing down or chipping off.

Certainly AP doesn't work in online Roulette since there is no wear or tear on the circuit board.

So I ask if anyone has a documented case of anyone being able to demonstrate AP for Roulette in an open casino? I mean where someone demonstrated this ability over and over again to witnesses and the witnesses filed sworn affidavits with a penalty of perjury that could be used in a court of law as evidence of this ability)

Thanks for any input........
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 13th, 2012 at 6:22:28 AM permalink
Quote: MauiSunset

A monkey throwing darts at the WSJ will out perform 80% of the Wizards of Wall street; I remember reading actual studies of monkeys doing just that)

That is because such stories get good media play but when the dart-throwing monkeys do poorly, its not quite such a newsworthy item.

>So I ask if anyone has a documented case of anyone being able to demonstrate AP for Roulette in an open casino?
Of course not. Wheels used to be less finely manufactured and wheels used to be less strictly monitored. Also maintenance personnel were allowed to move a table for vacuuming purposes from time to time with no leveling or testing being conducted. Those days are long past!

The "annunciator" or "marquee" or "history display" shows the latest "x" spins but that information is not discarded. Its part of the monitoring situation.

Do people win on weird premonitions sometimes? Sure. Do you have repeats and missing numbers? Of course but often its in the mind of the observer more than anything else. Can you bet on "repeats" Sure? You might even win. Of course you can also bet on a "missing number" being "due" and win on that from time to time.

Random? I don't know if its a random wheel or not, but usually its random enough! Random enough for the casino that can hire all those statisticians and all those computer experts, but apparently its never random enough for someone who wants to sell you his secret super-duper technique for detecting wheel bias.
MauiSunset
MauiSunset
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June 13th, 2012 at 6:40:49 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff


...
>So I ask if anyone has a documented case of anyone being able to demonstrate AP for Roulette in an open casino?
Of course not. Wheels used to be less finely manufactured and wheels used to be less strictly monitored. Also maintenance personnel were allowed to move a table for vacuuming purposes from time to time with no leveling or testing being conducted. Those days are long past!
...



OK, the maintenance folks move a Roulette table for a poker tournament and place it somewhere else. There is a "bubble level" on all regulated Roulette tables, required by the local gaming commission, that I play at and it's part of the compass which is used to detect Roulette balls with a magnetic core. Every time I check that bubble, which is part of my ritual before sitting down at a new table, that bubble is dead center. I ask the dealer where that leveling bubble is and they show me - I have every right to see it; it's no big deal.

I guess the Roulette wheel could have been damaged in transit but every time I see a Roulette table moved the Roulette wheel is removed so that $3,000 wheel isn't hurt.

Maybe at cheap casinos they move the Roulette wheels around and none of the players care if they feel like the table is doing a Titanic but not the places I gamble at....
WongBo
WongBo
Joined: Feb 3, 2012
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June 13th, 2012 at 1:16:54 PM permalink
oh dear god, not another AP roulette thread....
do a search and you will find the last flame war on this subject.
mrjjj is the resident expert on AP roulette, perhaps you should speak with him.
In a bet, there is a fool and a thief. - Proverb.
MauiSunset
MauiSunset
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June 13th, 2012 at 1:44:52 PM permalink
Quote: WongBo

oh dear god, not another AP roulette thread....
do a search and you will find the last flame war on this subject.
mrjjj is the resident expert on AP roulette, perhaps you should speak with him.



Mr J has deleted and modified many of my posts on other websites over this topic; so there is no need to debate this with him.

I'm simply asking for any verifiable cases of folks using AP or Reading Random Numbers "beating Roulette". If this could be done then there should be sworn affidavits backing up the claims.

I know there are many scams out there over these topics but I can't find a single case that is documented to be true; just scam after scam.

That's all I'm asking for........
Gabes22
Gabes22
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June 13th, 2012 at 2:00:12 PM permalink
If the numbers are truly random then there is no way to predermine their outcome. Now, there are cases of people finding biases in certain wheels finding that specific numbers come up with enough frequency to overcome the house edge on that particular number or set of numbers, however this takes hours and hours of studying the specific wheels and IMO might raise some suspicion in a casino.
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
MauiSunset
MauiSunset
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:40:26 PM permalink
Quote: Gabes22

If the numbers are truly random then there is no way to predermine their outcome. Now, there are cases of people finding biases in certain wheels finding that specific numbers come up with enough frequency to overcome the house edge on that particular number or set of numbers, however this takes hours and hours of studying the specific wheels and IMO might raise some suspicion in a casino.



Has any AP player ever demonstrated that wheels are so lopsided that observing 38 spins (American wheel) would give them some kind of edge?

If it takes 1 minute per spin, in Vegas this can be done because of automated chip sorting machines, then that would be just 38 minutes of standing around a table and writing down spins. The pit boss is going to have a chat with you.

Every Roulette player knows that what the Marquee shows is totally inaccurate - spins are posted wrong all the time so actual spins would have to be recorded.

Since there are 38 slots on the wheel and the "Roulette Law of Thirds" points out that 1/3 of those 38 spins won't even show up and 1/3 will be duplicates, triplicates, and quadrupedal occurrences that means another 12 or so spins or 50 spins - about 1 hours worth of Roulette spins.

AP players brag about winning at Roulette but their antics around a Roulette table would result in their removal from the casino.

So has any person or group bought a wheel and table, from the same sources as casinos do, and demonstrated this ability? I sure haven't ever seen this but maybe there is a case of this happening....
mrjjj
mrjjj
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
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June 13th, 2012 at 4:46:18 PM permalink
Quote: MauiSunset

When a Roulette player finally realizes that the Odds Table and the Payout Table can't be changed then the only way to "win" at Roulette is to "Understand Random Numbers", and/or to Play with an Advantage, "Advantage Play (AP)", by finding numbers that spin out too frequently and thus should be bet on.

Right.

There are folks who claim they can "read" random numbers like a fortune teller "reads" your hand. Sadly I can't do either.

I don't know of a single case of clairvoyance that is documented - in ANYTHING that has a random probability of happening. This applies to gambling and investing. But maybe there is a case documented? If so I'd love to get a link. (Stocks go up because there is inflation in an economy and some companies do a good job, but no super secret technical indicator that exists. A monkey throwing darts at the WSJ will out perform 80% of the Wizards of Wall street; I remember reading actual studies of monkeys doing just that)


That leaves AP. This seems to be the last bastion for folks to brag they can "beat Roulette" and never have to prove it. How would they prove it since the wheel at a particular Roulette table may have been swapped out for maintenance, like a diamond mark wearing down or chipping off.

Certainly AP doesn't work in online Roulette since there is no wear or tear on the circuit board.

So I ask if anyone has a documented case of anyone being able to demonstrate AP for Roulette in an open casino? I mean where someone demonstrated this ability over and over again to witnesses and the witnesses filed sworn affidavits with a penalty of perjury that could be used in a court of law as evidence of this ability)

Thanks for any input........




I brought this subject up before. A couple of my methods rely on playing repeaters and/or numbers that are hitting alot, call it whatever you wish.

Lets PRETEND (a real longshot) that the wheel is a bit bias and out of coincidence, I am betting on a few of those bias numbers. So what?

Why does my PLAN need a TITLE as to WHY I am betting on those numbers? My goal is to leave the casino with a profit REGARDLESS of why/how.

Ken
MauiSunset
MauiSunset
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June 13th, 2012 at 5:19:24 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

I brought this subject up before. A couple of my methods rely on playing repeaters and/or numbers that are hitting alot, call it whatever you wish.

Lets PRETEND (a real longshot) that the wheel is a bit bias and out of coincidence, I am betting on a few of those bias numbers. So what?

Why does my PLAN need a TITLE as to WHY I am betting on those numbers? My goal is to leave the casino with a profit REGARDLESS of why/how.

Ken



My goal is to win the Powerball lottery by any means too.

Big deal......
Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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June 13th, 2012 at 5:37:16 PM permalink
I have two wheels.

Regarding the law of the third.

1. It's nonsense.
2. There is no such law.
3. I believe that nobody would ever mistake Mr. Jjj. for an AP player.

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