Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 27th, 2020 at 3:41:30 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes.



This article mentions that the President is historically very quiet online during the Big Game. However, didn't his campaign buy some ad time this year? If so, he may try to draw attention to the ad, or comment on it afterwards. Will he be at the game?

Just based on past behavior, the under seems the best bet, but if there is controversy, or if the game is a blowout snoozer, he'll start tweeting. Maybe best to stay away from this one.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard 
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January 27th, 2020 at 5:46:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Just based on past behavior, the under seems the best bet, but if there is controversy, or if the game is a blowout snoozer, he'll start tweeting. Maybe best to stay away from this one.



How about we split the difference and you give me +120 on at least one Tweet?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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January 27th, 2020 at 5:49:38 PM permalink
I finally looked at the Stations, Boyd, and William Hill props and I'm simply not finding anything very good. The only one that stands out is Boyd has (or probably had) under 7.5 punts at -115. I put that fair at -156. I show the mean number of punts to be 6.93.

How far I have fallen, I barely gamble at all any longer, even on the Super Bowl.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MJGolf
MJGolf
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January 30th, 2020 at 3:11:14 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


How far I have fallen, I barely gamble at all any longer, even on the Super Bowl.



I was wondering. So no big pronouncements or prop bet advice like you have in past on GWAE or here? LOL

I was looking forward to the read in advance of a trip to Vegas Superbowl Sunday.
unJon
unJon
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January 30th, 2020 at 8:40:35 PM permalink
It sounds like both Trump and Bloomberg are running Super Bowl ads. I find it hard to believe Trump will resist tweeting after one of those runs.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffreyChuckleberry
January 30th, 2020 at 8:51:59 PM permalink
Quote: MJGolf

I was wondering. So no big pronouncements or prop bet advice like you have in past on GWAE or here? LOL

I was looking forward to the read in advance of a trip to Vegas Superbowl Sunday.



I made about a dozen bets today. I will post some prop suggestions tomorrow, barring some extenuating circumstances.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 31st, 2020 at 12:23:51 PM permalink
Here's a few prop touts by Charles Curtis and Steven Ruiz at USA Today that were published yesterday afternoon. I like the advice to lay money on a Jimmy Garappolo interception. What do you think about betting both sides of "winning margin 6 or less"?:

Quote: 2020 Superbowl 54: Best prop bets you can make


1. Which player will score a touchdown in the game? (Patrick Mahomes +370)

2. How many passing yards will Jimmy Garoppolo record? (Over 300.5 +330)

5. Winning margin (49ers by 1-6 +325; Chiefs by 1-6 +310)
I think it’s going to be a tight game either way, so these feel like easy bets to throws some cash on. — CC

6. Will an offensive lineman score a touchdown? (DraftKings; Yes +3300)
The odds are SO GOOD and I can just see one of these creative offensive teams going for it. — CC

9. Will Jimmy Garoppolo throw an interception? (Yes -135)
Garoppolo threw 13 picks during the regular season and defenders dropped another eight. He puts the ball in dangerous spots a lot, and the Chiefs have capitalized on opposing quarterbacks’ mistakes this season. — SR

10. What will be the result of the 1st drive of the game? (Any outcome other than a TD, FG or Safety +105)

11. First scoring play (Chiefs TD +150)

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
AcesAndEights
January 31st, 2020 at 1:55:46 PM permalink
This has been a lousy year for prop hunting for me. William Hill had some juicy bets, but the lines had all moved against me by the time I saw them. A few still had value. The following bets are all I have made so far:

Bet Odds Fair Location
Last score touchdown -170 -234 William Hill
First score touchdown -170 -212 William Hill
No KC touchdown in 4th qtr 190 173 William Hill
49'ers first score TD -160 -196 William Hill
Game never tied after 0-0 110 -107 William Hill
Team with more field goals -- 49'ers 120 100 William Hill
No safety -800 -1548 Golden Nugget
No overtime -1100 -1614 Golden Nugget
No 2-pt conversion -270 -485 Circa


I'm sure there are other things I could bet, but I haven't been out much this year looking.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 31st, 2020 at 2:03:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This has been a lousy year for prop hunting for me. William Hill had some juicy bets, but the lines had all moved against me by the time I saw them. A few still had value. The following bets are all I have made so far:

Bet Odds Fair Location
Last score touchdown -170 -234 William Hill
First score touchdown -170 -212 William Hill
No KC touchdown in 4th qtr 190 173 William Hill
49'ers first score TD -160 -196 William Hill
Game never tied after 0-0 110 -107 William Hill
Team with more field goals -- 49'ers 120 100 William Hill
No safety -800 -1548 Golden Nugget
No overtime -1100 -1614 Golden Nugget
No 2-pt conversion -270 -485 Circa


I'm sure there are other things I could bet, but I haven't been out much this year looking.



Thanks for these Wizard. When the fair line on a prop is about double the line you find (e.g. "No safety"), do you double up on your wager, or do even higher multiples since it's so juicy?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard 
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January 31st, 2020 at 2:42:18 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks for these Wizard. When the fair line on a prop is about double the line you find (e.g. "No safety"), do you double up on your wager, or do even higher multiples since it's so juicy?



You're welcome. I certainly bet more as the odds bet better. Roughly, in proportion to my advantage.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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