Slots, Systems and Scammers

Introduction

It amazes me that there are still folks out there who are willing to pay, sometimes big money, for supposed ways to win in the casinos. A recent thread here alerted me to a guy who, apparently, sells books of secrets for winning at slot machines.

I’m not going to say who the person is or include any links to his website, because quite frankly, I wouldn’t want to give him the traffic. That being said, here are a few of the slots that he purports to know (and is willing to share) winning ways:

1. Lightning Link
2. Dragon Link
3. Top Dollar
4. Pinball
5. Wheel of Fortune
6. Double Gold

I haven’t had the opportunity to play Pinball and have no interest in playing the other machines because, from what I can tell, I don’t see any easy way to beat them.

As I understand it, most Lightning Link games have some sort of Progressive, so generally speaking, there is a mathematical point (based on the probabilities) that a machine should become positive expected value, but there’s no reason to believe that anything else about the machines is beatable.

These packages claim to teach people the, “Slot lingo,” and teach definitions for things such as, Mini, Maxi, Mega and Grand Jackpots...which are apparent to, literally anyone with passable intelligence, just by looking at the game screen.

Apparently, he is known to the casinos and sponsors airport terminals who allow them to advertise his books there. It’s also possible that he has some of his customers watch him play, possibly for payment on their part, so that they can see what he does.

LEGITIMACY?

How could any of this be legitimate?

If there was a way to beat Lightning Link, for example, then it would have something to do with the top progressives, assuming a certain paytable/RTP. I’m not sure how one goes about making a book out of that, it’s just here’s the number, this is when it’s good.

It’s not different than a Video Poker Royal Flush progressive for a typical game, except with Slots, there’s no real strategy other than just spinning. In Video Poker, you would have to be making optimal holds the entire time.

According to the Wizard of Odds Video Poker analyzer, for example, assuming Optimal Strategy for the change in Royal Flush value on 9/6 Jacks or Better, you would want the Royal to return 4,880 credits ($1,220 on a quarters game) for the return to be over 100% and anything else would be more than that.

Slots aren’t really any different as long as you know the total, “Base,” RTP and the probability of the Progressive(s) for a given bet amount. You would just take the increase from base for the progressive and see what percentage return that represents compared to the amount that you are betting.

If someone is claiming there is anything more than that to beating Lightning Link, such as betting certain amounts at certain times, or what have you, I would need to see some amazing proof of that. There are plenty of variable-state machines out there, some discussed on this Forum, such as Ocean Magic, where advantages are known. These (and others) have been disclosed for free, here and there.

Anyway, folks such as these will offer various forms of supposed, “Proof.” THey’ll have testimonies from people, videos of themselves hitting huge jackpots and the like.

One of the videos, for example, showed a $2,500 jackpot, except he was betting $50 per spin. That’s less than some Video Poker four of a kinds, depending on the game. Do you want to know how you can hit a $2,500 slot jackpot playing $50 per spin?

Play long enough.

That’s literally all there is to it. Just hitting jackpots doesn’t mean you’re profitable. Even if some of these videos aren’t being edited with other segments cropped in, (you can keep loading a machine with something like $100 and make it look like you hit something the third time even though it was the fiftieth) the person posting a video still decides where it starts and ends, so that’s just a matter of being selective about what you put in the video.‘

After a jackpot, they might say something like, “And here comes another jackpot,” and then it happens. Is that legitimate? Well, he might have legitimately hit another jackpot, but I’m sure he wouldn’t have put up a video where he says, “Here comes another jackpot,” and then it doesn’t happen! Being careful with what you say gives a person the opportunity to end the video with the first jackpot if they fail to hit the second, so it means nothing.

It’s important to remember that, just because someone has a lot of money and plays high-limit slots (and sells information) that does not automatically prevent that person from being a scammer. If someone can convince enough people to buy the books, then the sales of the products could quite conceivably cover the expected loss on the games.

Also, this person has mentioned specific casinos in some of the videos. I don’t want to get too conspiratorial, but I wonder if there’s anything going on behind the scenes where this person is getting comps or free play for getting people to go to the casinos and play these high-denomination slot games? I wouldn’t be surprised.

Another thing that shouldn’t necessarily be trusted is testimonials. If you ever hear something along the lines of, “I have watched this guy play,” then a couple of things are possible:

1. They are being paid to say that.
2. They did watch him play and win.

Even #2 still proves nothing. People fall for limited sample sizes, so if someone enters a casino with someone else who claims to be able to beat the slot machines and then sees them win, perhaps even once, then that’s it. It’s a believer!

If you want someone to be able to honestly say they saw you win on slots in a casino, then all you need to do to make that happen is go to the casino with enough people.

For those who claim to have bought these products and to have won themselves, once again, it’s a slot machine...some people WILL win whether they follow the methods outlined in the book, or not. Some people will win whether they heard of this guy, or not. If you needed a book of secrets to sometimes be a short-term winner, and everyone else to ever play the games lost, then there would be no reason to ever play and people would stop.

Again, you end up with people basing their statements on really small sample sizes. They bought the book and had a profitable trip...well, that can happen if you don’t buy the book. Does anyone realistically believe that taking a certain amount of spins before changing bets, or whatever other voodoo is proposed actually changes the long-term expectation of a game?

I’d certainly hope not, but I know there are people out there who do.

Next thing you know, there are people out there pimping the book and swearing that the dude knows what he is talking about. That’s because they’ve either witnessed him win in a very small sample size or have won themselves in a small sample size.

Anyway, if you want to make videos of yourself winning huge jackpots on various slot machines, then the only thing required is enough money to make that happen. Whatever the -EV of the play is, then you hope to make that up with sales of your books or if people pay you for live lessons.

It’s really not hard to fake evidence or cherry-pick sessions with the Internet and all sorts of computer tools at your disposal, so my advice to anyone is not to buy anything that anyone is selling, when it comes to winning at slots and also to treat any information you get for free with caution.

OTHER SCAMS

That brings us to the concept of, “System Sellers,” which do what they say on the box. Of course, we’re going to dive into the concept of why systems even exist much more deeply in my next article, but for now, we’ll focus just on the snake oil salesman aspect.

If you want to hop on over to PokerFraudAlert, then you’ll see quite a thread about one of the better known sellers of gambling systems on there. It won’t be hard to find. I’m not going to publish his name on this website because I’d really prefer that Google not associate us with this guy.

Anyway, there’s a Youtube video of a guy who literally lost his life savings playing a system that was promoted by this guy during a paid, “Lesson.”

How people fall for any of it is completely beyond me.

Let’s assume, just for fun, that there actually could be a repeatable betting system that had the expectation of profit. Keep in mind that we’re also not talking about any complex betting strategy or novelty game for which systems haven’t been thoroughly debunked time and time again; we’re talking about Blackjack, Roulette and Baccarat.

That’s right. He switches games all the time. If a system doesn’t seem to be working on one, then he’ll, “Develop,” and market a system for a different game. By itself, you’d think that would be enough to tell potential buyers something---are also casino table games supposed to be able to be conquered by betting systems? Why even switch games if any of these systems were actually working, much less all of them?

The entire casino revenue model is predicated upon the fact that betting systems don’t work. In all of these decades, or even hundreds of years of these (or similar) games, do you really think that this is the guy who finally cracked the code? Gambling math and computing getting easier and easier to do and understand...and the secret hasn’t been discovered yet?

If there was any way of simply ordering bets that resulted in infallible winning, then it would have been discovered long ago and applicable casino table games would simply not be offered anymore.

Anyway, the guy in the video (if you choose to find it) probably ran into one of the worse sessions that a person could catch, but sooner or later, such a session becomes all but inevitable, anyway.

If it proves anything, then what it proves is that the hook upon which the hat of betting systems hangs, high probability of an individual attempt winning, isn’t securely fastened into the wall. To wit, there’s simply no system that comes with a 100% probability of winning an individual trial, and consequently, that losing run can come at anytime...even during the first trial.

And, the system seller himself? He got killed also.

Actually, it makes me wonder if the casinos aren’t sometimes complicit, at least, to a degree. For instance, not only is this guy taking money for giving, “Lessons,” on his system, and selling the systems themselves, but is it not also possible that he’s getting some form of comps or match play kickbacks for bringing well-bankrolled (at least, for one session) players into the casinos?

For me, this guy is widely-enough regarded as a scammer that he would be, “86 on sight,” were he seen in any casino that I ran.

Listen, if you really want to find a system that you subjectively, “Like,” there are enough out there available for free. By paying for systems, you’re just reducing your own bankroll and increasing the probability that the almost-inevitable disastrous session comes sooner than later.

Oh, but all of these folks are giving testimonials about winning and seeing this guy win! Okay, even if you wanted to assume that they’re not lying, which they may well be, of course the dude is going to win some sessions. You’ll win some sessions, whatever that may mean to you, simply by flat betting and not playing too long.

Winning some sessions is meaningless in the long run.

As far as the casinos are concerned, it’s just as important that some people win as it is for some people to lose. Could you imagine if games were designed such that no players ever got ahead at any point? Nobody would ever play the games. Some people have to win, and all people must have the perception that they could win at any given time, or the entire concept of a casino fails.

WINNING SLOTS?

There might be some exceptions, but your best bet for finding information on how to win on slot machines would be to look into what I call, “Variable-State machines,” which are sometimes called, “Perpetual-State machines.”

Here are a few assumptions you should start with:

1.) While it’s probably true that not everyone wanting to charge you for information is a scammer, most people who want money to share information probably are scammers.

-Do you remember the old adage, “I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine?”

It’s kind of like that. Information is the same as money when it comes to beating these sorts of slot machines. Someone legitimate probably isn’t going to want any money from you for, “Showing you the plays,” they figure that you’ll do the same for them one day as you come into plays. Absent that, they might want to know how a particular casino you may visit markets or will want you to keep an eye out for potentially profitable promotions, both online and in land casinos.

That’s how the whole thing usually works amongst legitimate, “Slot hustlers,” or, “Vultures.” Information is money. If I give you information and you’re going to later give me information that I might not have come about, in turn, then I have basically given you money (Expected Value, anyway) and you have given money back to me.

2.) Most information that you find is going to be lousy. I’m sorry to say so, but that’s the way of it. Most of the information you get, especially in-person, is going to be non-information. The internet (Forums, Twitter, Discord...if you can get an in) will usually be your best resource and you’ll want to combine this with your own observations.

3.) People will help you for free, if you look around enough. Just look at this forum: Someone asks a gambling question, and sooner or later, someone else answers. These answers will sometimes be private if you happen to be asking about a play that’s not already fairly well-known, whereas some other guys won’t even discuss well-known ones.

If you had an idea about a particular slot machine, you could PM me and I would see if I think there could be anything to it. I’m not going to ask for any payment. If you offer me something, then I will thank you and refuse. It’s quite possible that you’re already helping me by possibly drawing my attention to a play that hasn’t made it to me yet, or perhaps a machine that I erroneously thought could just be ignored.

Another thing to realize is that slot advantage play isn’t the hardest thing in the world, (especially not if you already know the sorts of concepts that you are looking for) but it’s not the easiest.

Listen, gambling in a casino is playing a game that you’re expected to lose. If you want to be expected to win, then you usually have to see some kind of angle on a particular game AND the angle has to be legitimate. It’s like a college not really known for football finding a way to upset a highly-ranked team.

Systems, books you have to pay for that consist mostly of betting progressions, knowing the, “Lingo,” isn’t going to cut it. You’ll maybe score some touchdowns (that people without the books also would have scored), but you’re not going to win the games in the long run. You can luck your way into the opposing team fumbling deep in their own territory and someone scooping up the rock and pounding it in for a touchdown. Luck is not a plan.

CONCLUSION

As ever, if the information is really so reliable, then why would they ever sell it?

On high-denomination machines, no less!

I’ll help a person learn vulturing plays, but if I ever have a nearly foolproof angle that almost nobody else knows on a high-denomination game, I can promise that I’ll become a closed book really quickly.

Also, think about a guy who sells books and has his face everywhere advertising that he can beat the hell out of high-denomination machines almost at will being allowed into these casinos! If what he is saying is true, would they really let him in there all the time? Why are these machines becoming even more popular elsewhere?

Slot machines that are easily beatable for big numbers, or even strong (but not huge) numbers tend to disappear pretty quickly, not spread.

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Posted by Mission146

Comments

Mission146 Sep 14, 2021

Oh, and there are a couple of beatable, "Wheel of Fortune," based games, so he may or may not be talking about those...I somehow doubt it.

FastEddie Sep 14, 2021

Why would they sell it ? Sometimes the seller has a. Terminal dicease and wants to share something with his fellow man. Or he is just a regular Joe who wants to give a working man a break. There is always a story some fool will fall for.
As for system with fine tuning some will show great promise. Turf Magazine back when Vehas had the monopoly on casinos had new systems
Every month. With appropriate tie breakers to show a good profit.
At least Bob has the good sense to keep his system to himself. And McDawg is a step ahead in denying he has one!

Mission146 Sep 14, 2021

I don't think the terminal disease is the case with the guy in the first section, but wanting to, "Share something," is what he claims.

If he wants to share it, then he could just share it. When I go to the grocery store and purchase produce, would you call that the store, "Sharing," the produce with me?

You should like my next article on systems. It'll be out tomorrow or the next day.

odiousgambit Sep 14, 2021

One of the things I keep noticing these days is that, if you are a gambler, everybody wants a piece of you. Not a chunk because you are necessarily a winner, if you are a loser at gambling then you are giving away your money and everyone wants in on it. The House, naturally, depends on situation #2, we expect that. But also the tax collector, he too doesn't care if you actually are a loser at gambling. In fact situation #2 might be the one that bothers these folks the least when they 'get some'. ............ and of course my point is that book sellers of this type are just one more vulture out there

Mission146 Sep 15, 2021

That's quite a good observation; I never thought of that. I guess maybe that's the thinking, "If they are going to probably lose this money anyway, then I might as well get a piece."

I can't say I'm a fan of that mentality because they may well lose more than they otherwise might have if they are believing in a system.