135steward
135steward
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March 8th, 2012 at 4:54:22 PM permalink
This seems simple enough. But am I simply wrong?:

Say I hold a Jack, and draw four cards. I figure I have four chances of drawing at least one more jack from the remaining cards,or:

3/47 + 3/46 + 1/15 + 3/44 = about 26.4% chance. Did I do that right?
Doc
Doc
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March 8th, 2012 at 5:13:35 PM permalink
That method gives a very rough approximation, but it is not really correct. I think to find the chances of "at least one more jack" it is easier to subtract from 100% the chance of not getting any more jacks.

P= 1 - (44/47)*(43/46)*(42/45)*(41/44) = 0.2389 = 23.89%


Edit: My original post had an error in the calculation. Now corrected, I think.
135steward
135steward
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March 10th, 2012 at 3:30:00 PM permalink
Thanks for your help. It looks like I have a lot of studying to do. : )
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