Question about elo.
February 28th, 2012 at 11:05:59 PM
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Given that a person has achieved an accurate elo rating to reflect their skill, and that person never improves or gets worse, over time they will remain around their elo in rating. However, i was wondering between what elo values would they remain between 90% of the time (or 95% of the time) given any given K factor, (K32 and K24 are the most important ones) [ignoring that other player's elo will also deviate from their true skill level or other inconvieniences]. Anyone know the answer? Or have an elo simulation already built on their computer to find out between what values the player would deviate between?
February 29th, 2012 at 12:08:30 AM
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The Elo rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in two-player games such as chess, but today it is also used in many other games. It is also used as a rating system for multiplayer competition in a number of video games,[1] and has been adapted to team sports including association football, American college football, basketball, and Major League Baseball.
More at Wikipedia.
More at Wikipedia.
February 29th, 2012 at 12:28:40 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffMore at Wikipedia.
I got a chuckle out of that as the OP has assumed a familiarity with a certain jargon that I would have to think few here know.
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February 29th, 2012 at 5:02:14 AM
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Me too. I had no clue.Quote: odiousgambitI got a chuckle out of that as the OP has assumed a familiarity with a certain jargon that I would have to think few here know.
It was nice that Wikipedia explained it. Then again, Wikipedia has a page on EVERYTHING.
And for those that like links, here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
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http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
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February 29th, 2012 at 6:05:00 AM
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ELO was a good band in the 70's but never reached the level of popularity I expected :)
February 29th, 2012 at 6:14:04 AM
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Quote: JohnzimboELO was a good band in the 70's but never reached the level of popularity I expected :)
Lol that's exactly what I was thinking when I read the subject line :)
February 29th, 2012 at 3:23:03 PM
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Nevermind, i found an easy way to get the answer
February 29th, 2012 at 4:59:16 PM
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Quote: GamerManNevermind, i found an easy way to get the answer
What was the answer? I understood the question, more or less, but had nothing to add for an answer.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
February 29th, 2012 at 7:24:54 PM
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the answer for 32K was your rating would spend time normally distributed around your true rating with a standard deviation of ~53.3 (so it would spend 95% of the time [-106.6,106.6]. I found it by coming up with abserdly large excel documents imputting the formula in general, and seeing the distribution ~100 games in the future after reaching the true rating.
amazingly, if you drop it down to 24K, the standard deviation of your rating will only be dropped down to 46.0, not a major drop.
I should also note that i assumed only a win or a loss, the inclusion of draws (such as for chess), will decrease the standard deviation, but the math becomes a lot more tricky (though still doable, i should get around to doing that one day).
amazingly, if you drop it down to 24K, the standard deviation of your rating will only be dropped down to 46.0, not a major drop.
I should also note that i assumed only a win or a loss, the inclusion of draws (such as for chess), will decrease the standard deviation, but the math becomes a lot more tricky (though still doable, i should get around to doing that one day).
