NandB
NandB
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January 26th, 2010 at 6:55:02 PM permalink
I looked around here quite a bit and over at the "Odds" site rather thoroughly. I didn't see these two that have happened to me:

1.) 6D S17 DA2 DAS RS4 NoRSA LS Lets call %Pen 70 +/-5 (Mohegan Sun in the Late 90's) 1 Player, me, and Dealer. I am dealt the Ace-Diamonds and the Queen-Diamonds, and the dealer has the Ace-Spades with Queen-Spades (I've had this a few times maybe 4 total with other suited Naturals). I tried to wrap my brain around this, best I can estimate is 1 in 120,000. I start with a tied-BJ being about 1 in 463. (Taken from "Odds" site using info from a Side-Bet in Appendix 8)

2) Atlantic City Late 80's: same as above, but no LS. Here I was at full table + Dealer, and Dealer and me were each dealt the Ace-Club with 10-Club (Identical BJ)... 2.5 million to 1 ???

By my estimations, looks like a 3:2 Jackpot :D

N&B
To err is human. To air is Jordan. To arrr is pirate.
miplet
miplet
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January 27th, 2010 at 8:48:59 AM permalink
Your 2.5 million to one is correct (actualy 2581859 to 1) for both of you getting an ace of clubs and 10 of clubs. However there are 15 other ways you can both have identical suited bj's. IE: both ace of hearts and queen of hearts. For a grand total of 131365 to 1. All of this assumes me and Excel are having a good day.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
NandB
NandB
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January 27th, 2010 at 9:33:03 PM permalink
Thank you miplet. The nearest answer I got to yours was 2577377.405 This was done by taking 4 Combination 312 (4 from 312) then dividing by the product of the 36 ways an Ace-Clubs and a 10-Clubs can be made and the 4 suits that could be matched considering an Ace-10. Since there are 6 Aces and 10's for each suit (Thus 6 hands times 4 suits), I multiplied the above result by 23/24 (or divided by 24/23).

By numbers:
312C4 = 387278970
# of ways of Suited Ace-10 = 144 (36x4)
answer is 2689437.292 x 23/24 = 2577377.405

Evidently, I'm perhaps looking at it wrong, or need other factors, etc. Burn card not accounted, just straight off the top of the shoe.

Again thanks much, (maybe thats why I never won the lotto JP lol)
To err is human. To air is Jordan. To arrr is pirate.
miplet
miplet
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January 31st, 2010 at 8:04:50 AM permalink
Ok I must have been having a bad day. My new answere is 1 in 161366.2375
Dealer getting an Ace (24/312) * dealer getting suited 10 or face (24/311) = (576/97032)
They can also be reversed so its (1152/97032)
Player getting the same ace (5/310) * player gettng same 10 or face (5/309)=(25/95790)
They can also be reversed so its (50/9570)
(1152/97032) * (50/9570) = (57600/9294695280) = apx. 0.000006197083203

This nearly matches twin bjs of 0.000025 for identical bjs. 1 in 4 identical bjs are suited. 0.00000625
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
NandB
NandB
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January 31st, 2010 at 2:09:18 PM permalink
NP, I noticed that your answer of 161K seemed more probable if your original answer was divided by 16.

I believe my last factor of 23/24 should have been 24/25... this agrees nicely with your original analysis.

Could someone else look at this? Thanks in advance.
To err is human. To air is Jordan. To arrr is pirate.
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