Expected Return/ Player edge on Charitable Lotteries

Dear Wizard,

I'm writing to you for help in answering a mathematical question that I have not been able to answer accurately.

My question is in regards to the value of purchasing a ticket for a lottery such as the Mega Millions Choices charitable lottery for St. Boniface hospital. Although it is clear that the odds of winning any prize in a smaller charitable lottery are greater than winning the grand prize Lotto 6/49 or Lotto Max (two national lotteries), I would like to know what the expected return and player edge are when purchasing tickets for this charitable lottery.

I'm sure you are very busy but based on your experience and specialization I believe you can provide me with a more accurate result than I could possibly produce.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Sincerely,
Evan

If you were to indulge me, please find the data at

Quote: EvanRoz

My question is in regards to the value of purchasing a ticket for a lottery such as the Mega Millions Choices charitable lottery for St. Boniface hospital. Although it is clear that the odds of winning any prize in a smaller charitable lottery are greater than winniepg the grand prize Lotto 6/49 or Lotto Max (two national lotteries), I would like to know what the expected return and player edge are when purchasing tickets for this charitable lottery.

55K tickets @ $100 apiece is $5.5 million, with cash prizes worth $2,705,796.28 is a player return of 49.20%.
The actual return will be slightly higher percentage because you can purchase multiple tickets at a discount.

Theoretically the charity could sell all 55K tickets for only $3,928,571 if people bought them all 7 tickets for $500, but in reality it is certain to be over $5 million.

The odds are probably only slightly lower than Lotto 6/49 or Lotto Max except that with the charity you are not getting cash, but you are taking their word for it about the cash value of the prizes. The charity has most of these prizes donated to them, but they label them at retail price. In some cases the prize has a retail value of $12K, but you can accept $8K cash instead.

It seems like a worthy charity.

Thanks for the great response. Supporting a charity is a great thing unto itself. It's also fantastic to have such great odds of actually winning A prize.

What do you think the probabability of winning the grandprize is after all the smaller prizes have been won?