shakhtar
shakhtar
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December 12th, 2011 at 1:34:47 AM permalink
Hypothetical scenario:

Mike plays three Pick 4 numbers in 20 separate state drawings a day. He ends up entering 7300 drawings for the year.

Obviously his chance of not winning any 1 individual drawing is .9997
Therefore, we can figure that he has a 88.81% chance of at least winning once during the 7300 drawings for the year.

every drawing will have him picking 3 numbers per draw for a .0003% chance per draw

My question is, what are the percentage probabilities of mike hitting 1 out of 7300, 2 out of 7300, 3 out of 7300 etc..?

If possible, I would like the percentage probabilities up to 10 out 7300.

My thanks for anyone who takes the time to figure this out, as I have not yet figured out how to do this correctly.
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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December 12th, 2011 at 4:22:35 AM permalink
Excel gets these results:

Hits Prob.
0
11.19%
1
24.51%
2
26.84%
3
19.60%
4
10.73%
5
4.70%
6
1.71%
7
0.54%
8
0.15%
9
0.04%
10
0.01%
Total
100.00%
shakhtar
shakhtar
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December 12th, 2011 at 11:36:32 AM permalink
Thanks ChesterDog

Is the program you used available anywhere?
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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December 12th, 2011 at 11:57:03 AM permalink
Quote: shakhtar

...Is the program you used available anywhere?



"Excel" is a spreadsheet program; it's one of the three programs of Microsoft Office, which you can buy from Microsoft or an electronics store.

For example, to do your binomial problem in Excel for 10 hits, you would type the following formula in a cell.
=combin(7300,10)*.0003^10*.9997^(7300-10)
JB
Administrator
JB
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December 12th, 2011 at 12:10:18 PM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

For example, to do your binomial problem in Excel for 10 hits, you would type the following formula in a cell.
=combin(7300,10)*.0003^10*.9997^(7300-10)


Or you could use the binomial distribution function:     =binomdist(10,7300,3/10000,false)
progrocker
progrocker
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December 12th, 2011 at 1:42:39 PM permalink
Quote: ChesterDog

"Excel" is a spreadsheet program; it's one of the three programs of Microsoft Office, which you can buy from Microsoft or an electronics store.



There's also Open Office, which is free and open sourced, and will open .xls files as well as give you the option to save as .xls.

http://www.openoffice.org/
Solo venimos, solo nos vamos. Y aqui nos juntamos, juntos que estamos.
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