ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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November 7th, 2011 at 7:40:12 AM permalink
hi, all experts out there.

By removing each card in turn from an eight-deck shoe, its effect on the house edge can be determined. This allows card counting systems to be developed

For an example, for the game of baccarat( 8 deck, cut card put at 14 cards from the end of shoe), if we want to check the EOR of the "9", removing a 9 leaves 415 cards, then start to simulate first round and say 5 number of cards were dealt and left 410 cards in the shoe.

My question here is whether :-

a) you continue to simulate the 2nd round, 3rd round….until the 80th round(or until 14 cards left in the shoe) with the same shoe stated above(410 cards just before 2nd round...and left 14 cards+- at round 80th). After that only start with new shoe(remove a 9 of course !)

OR

b) you simulate the 2nd round with a totally new shoe with 415 cards(remove a 9 only), 3rd round with new shoe with 415 card…..means every round use a totally new shoe with 415 cards(without a 9 of course !).

OR

c) remove all "9" from the shoe(left 384 cards), and then start your simulation by using shoe without any "9" ?

Please give your comments

cheers
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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November 7th, 2011 at 8:29:30 AM permalink
For baccarat you don't need to simulate. Just do the same calculations you'd do for computing the player/banker outcomes, except there's one less 9 in the shoe. What you get is the EOR of a 9 off the top of an 8 deck shoe -- the EOR of a 9 off the top of a 6 deck shoe, or at some other depth, is going to be different. But nobody I've ever heard of is doing adaptive card counting analysis based on depth and composition because that's far beyond the capacity of the human mind. The closest you have is the RC->TC conversion, but that's still done using fixed count values.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
7up
7up
Joined: May 22, 2010
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November 7th, 2011 at 8:43:43 AM permalink
When you play at online casino, you can use a program to calculate the EV, like this:

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/casino-games/baccarat/odds-calculator.html

You need simulation to show you how often and how much advantage you can have, on average each shoe by cutting 14 cards
ssho88
ssho88
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November 7th, 2011 at 8:51:06 AM permalink
hi,

Thanks for your reply.

You mean calculate the revised new house edge for normal player/banker base on a shoe consist of 415 card ?

However, what I am trying to calculate is the EOR of a 9 for a special new baccarat side bet, I think the EOR only can be obtained by simulation instead of manual calculations, please correct me if i am wrong.
7up
7up
Joined: May 22, 2010
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November 7th, 2011 at 9:09:36 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

hi,

Thanks for your reply.

You mean calculate the revised new house edge for normal player/banker base on a shoe consist of 415 card ?

However, what I am trying to calculate is the EOR of a 9 for a special new baccarat side bet, I think the EOR only can be obtained by simulation instead of manual calculations, please correct me if i am wrong.


What is the side bet, dragon pair? dragon 7?
Most of those side bet EV can be obtained by combinational analysis directly.
ssho88
ssho88
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November 7th, 2011 at 9:25:41 AM permalink
Here is another baccarat side bet found at local casino here.

Normal baccarat rules.

a) if total number of cards dealt per round =4, then it call “SMALL” and the payout is 1.5 to 1. House edge = 5.283%

b) if total number of card per round = 5 or 6, then it call “BIG” and the payout is 0.54 to 1. House edge = 4.346%

Is it possible to find the EOR of each card and then develop a counting system to get an edge ? I think 8 and 9 is important !
7up
7up
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November 7th, 2011 at 9:33:11 AM permalink
A combinational analyst can solve you problem.
You can do it by writing a program, or do the math in Excel.
I heard that all the games were burned by some members of [sea swallow]
ssho88
ssho88
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November 7th, 2011 at 9:45:50 AM permalink
Combinational analysis ? something like 52C1 x 4C1....?

Even we use the combinational analysis, the analysis should base on 8 deck without a 9 only (415 cards) ?
7up
7up
Joined: May 22, 2010
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November 7th, 2011 at 9:54:27 AM permalink
you can cal full shoe EV
you can cal full shoe less one 9's or without any 9's EV
you can cal any combinations of cards in any level of the shoe EV
when you use Combinational analysis, it gives you the EV directly, you don't need card counting any more.
Have a look again on the link above, you need a program like that, but you have to make the program also give you the EV of betting on [Big/Small]
ssho88
ssho88
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November 7th, 2011 at 10:01:52 AM permalink
fine, say now I want to calculate the EOR of the 9, so we use the combinational analysis to get the EV for shoe without a 9, then see what is the different compare to full shoe EV ?

For example dragon 7, see link http://wizardofodds.com/baccarat/card-counting-dragon-bet.html, TABLE 2 and TABLE 3, with the EOR for each card( Ace to Ten), then he can develop a counting system to decide when to bet !

I think he use combinational analysis for shoe with 415 cards ( remove only a 9 for EOR of 9, remove only a 5 for EOR of 5...etc)

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