Another problem the Wizard can't solve ;)
October 27th, 2011 at 11:27:13 AM
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"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
October 27th, 2011 at 11:32:40 AM
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My answer is B. You should have made it a poll.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
October 27th, 2011 at 11:51:45 AM
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But there is only 25% chance you'd pick it, not 50%.
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
October 27th, 2011 at 11:53:43 AM
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Nice paradox. Confounding on the interpretation of the word "correct", I think.
The Wizard's answer of "B" suggests a 50% chance that a random answer would be "correct". It seems that the only way to get a 50% chance of any particular answer is for that "correct" answer to be "25%", i.e., you randomly get either answer "A" or "D". That implies that either "A" or "D" is the "correct" answer, indicating that the Wizard did not select either of the "correct" answers.
Yes, a paradox. And I think it arises for whatever answer you select.
The Wizard's answer of "B" suggests a 50% chance that a random answer would be "correct". It seems that the only way to get a 50% chance of any particular answer is for that "correct" answer to be "25%", i.e., you randomly get either answer "A" or "D". That implies that either "A" or "D" is the "correct" answer, indicating that the Wizard did not select either of the "correct" answers.
Yes, a paradox. And I think it arises for whatever answer you select.
October 27th, 2011 at 12:03:05 PM
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I'm have a TOUGH time wrapping my head around this one - The answer keeps changing!
If C was 100%, I would have said C. But that only works when the phrase "At random" is removed.
If C was 100%, I would have said C. But that only works when the phrase "At random" is removed.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
October 27th, 2011 at 3:58:42 PM
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All answers can be correct under different scenarios.
For B, inscribe these letters on the faces of a six-sided die: A, B, B, B, C, D. Then roll the die. B appears 50% of the time.
For A, inscribe these letters on the faces of an eight-sided die: A, A, B, C, D, D, D, D. p(A) = 25%
For C, inscribe on a ten-sided die: A, B, C, C, C, C, C, C, D, D. p(C) = 60%
For D, inscribe on an eight-sided die: A, A, A, B, C, C, D, D. p(D) = 25%
The moral of the story: "random" does not mean "equiprobable". The other moral of the story: don't assume restrictions that aren't explicitly stated.
For B, inscribe these letters on the faces of a six-sided die: A, B, B, B, C, D. Then roll the die. B appears 50% of the time.
For A, inscribe these letters on the faces of an eight-sided die: A, A, B, C, D, D, D, D. p(A) = 25%
For C, inscribe on a ten-sided die: A, B, C, C, C, C, C, C, D, D. p(C) = 60%
For D, inscribe on an eight-sided die: A, A, A, B, C, C, D, D. p(D) = 25%
The moral of the story: "random" does not mean "equiprobable". The other moral of the story: don't assume restrictions that aren't explicitly stated.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
October 27th, 2011 at 4:03:19 PM
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Quote: MathExtremist
The moral of the story: "random" does not mean "equiprobable".
Yes, indeed, that is one solution.
Quote:The other moral of the story: don't assume restrictions that aren't explicitly stated.
And this is another. You can say that the chance of picking the right answer is 0, and also be correct. Nothing says that you are required to pick one of the four answers. The question is "what is the chance...", not "select one of the options..."
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
October 27th, 2011 at 4:11:00 PM
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How about this for a poll:
================================
Which of the following will be the most common response to this poll question?
A) B
B) C
C) D
D) A
================================
Which of the following will be the most common response to this poll question?
A) B
B) C
C) D
D) A
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
October 27th, 2011 at 7:22:53 PM
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Quote: DorothyGaleHow about this for a poll:
================================
Which of the following will be the most common response to this poll question?
A) B
B) C
C) D
D) A
B. People tend to select interior responses, and answer B most clearly meets that condition.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
