Odds of Recovery

I am trying to better understand the math/probability that someone could take a $2,000 and turn it into $100,000 assuming a $2,000 average bet with only a $2,000 bankroll on a game with hold around 1%.

Seems simple.... guess right, then guess right each and every successive time until you've got 100 grand, then tip the dealer and leave.

Assuming you mean house edge of 1%, probably about 1.8% of the time. There are many factors that can alter the answer.

Thanks SOOPOO. Would you mind sharing the math/model? Back of the envelope math would suggest that odds are about 1:400 if you doubled-up until reaching max bet of around $15K or so (and that assumed 0% house advantage), so I was inititally anticipating that the actual likelihood would be much lower than the 1.8% you calculated.

I'm trying to normalize for many of the known variables and assume the bet stays constant and we can select any confidence level but preferably around a 98th percentile is most ideal.

At your convenience, please let me know your thoughts.

Thanks,
Walt