WaltFales
WaltFales
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Joined: Sep 23, 2011
September 29th, 2011 at 2:54:08 PM permalink
I am trying to better understand the math/probability that someone could take a $2,000 and turn it into $100,000 assuming a $2,000 average bet with only a $2,000 bankroll on a game with hold around 1%.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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Joined: Oct 19, 2009
September 29th, 2011 at 3:59:32 PM permalink
Seems simple.... guess right, then guess right each and every successive time until you've got 100 grand, then tip the dealer and leave.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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September 29th, 2011 at 6:00:10 PM permalink
Assuming you mean house edge of 1%, probably about 1.8% of the time. There are many factors that can alter the answer.
WaltFales
WaltFales
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Joined: Sep 23, 2011
September 29th, 2011 at 9:01:47 PM permalink
Thanks SOOPOO. Would you mind sharing the math/model? Back of the envelope math would suggest that odds are about 1:400 if you doubled-up until reaching max bet of around $15K or so (and that assumed 0% house advantage), so I was inititally anticipating that the actual likelihood would be much lower than the 1.8% you calculated.

I'm trying to normalize for many of the known variables and assume the bet stays constant and we can select any confidence level but preferably around a 98th percentile is most ideal.

At your convenience, please let me know your thoughts.

Thanks,
Walt
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