Hypothetical question for the Wiz or any math wiz.

Lets say there's 100 players who bet on sports. They bet on all major sports, O/U and/or Point Spreads. All 100 players are right 52% of the time on their picks but not all 100 players play the same games. They make about 5 plays a day with an average of 30 possible plays a day. What are the odds of a 60% consensus pick or higher of the players making the same correct bet on the same game? What are the odds of a 60% consensus pick or higher of the players making the same incorrect bet on the same game?

If the date is the day before or the day after Baseball's All-Star game, then the answer is Zero.

Quote: s2dbaker

If the date is the day before or the day after Baseball's All-Star game, then the answer is Zero.

If this is because I used too few players, I revised the question so the number of betters are more likely to have the same game on the same bill.

Quote: AverageAllstar

If this is because I used too few players, I revised the question so the number of betters are more likely to have the same game on the same bill.

He's being clever. There's no major league sports played on the day before All-Star game, the only day in the calendar I believe that is true for.

Ah yea! Ha ha! Indeed. I thought he meant because of the number of players I initially had, the odds of 3 bettors making the same play wasn't likely in the first half of the season. Anyways... anyone know how to formulate this? If you do... formulate.

Quote: thecesspit

He's being clever. There's no major league sports played on the day before All-Star game, the only day in the calendar I believe that is true for.

Only on an annual basis - about half the time, there are no major league sports on Christmas Eve either. (The NBA and NHL make it a point not to schedule games on 12/24; the NFL will (there are games scheduled for Saturday 12/24/2011, in part because they don't want to play any Sunday afternoon games on Christmas Day), but won't go out of their way to do it (I don't think there were any on 12/24/2010, for example). (BTW, if you're wondering about 12/25, the NBA usually has its first broadcast network games of the season that day. Of course, that assumes the lockout doesn't last past then, like the last one did, but that's another story...)

As for the original problem, in part it depends on what is meant by being right 52% of the time. Does it mean that if a bettor bets on a particular game, that bettor has a 52% chance of betting on the correct team?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Only on an annual basis - about half the time, there are no major league sports on Christmas Eve either. (The NBA and NHL make it a point not to schedule games on 12/24; the NFL will (there are games scheduled for Saturday 12/24/2011, in part because they don't want to play any Sunday afternoon games on Christmas Day), but won't go out of their way to do it (I don't think there were any on 12/24/2010, for example). (BTW, if you're wondering about 12/25, the NBA usually has its first broadcast network games of the season that day. Of course, that assumes the lockout doesn't last past then, like the last one did, but that's another story...)

As for the original problem, in part it depends on what is meant by being right 52% of the time. Does it mean that if a bettor bets on a particular game, that bettor has a 52% chance of betting on the correct team?

It means this bettor, (every bettor) is correct 52 times out of 100. That's their win loss ratio, 52W/48L.