Crapless Craps (Fire Bet Probabilities)
December 15th, 2009 at 7:13:15 PM
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I see posted odds and house edge for craps and the odds of making 1-6 different points on the fire bet. With Crapless Craps having 10 different points can anyone answer what the probability and house edge would be on a firebet that would be on such a game that involves making 1-10 different points?
December 16th, 2009 at 5:08:07 AM
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I wouldn't know how to calculate it. Heck I don't even know how they calculated the regular Fire Bet odds.
But it's a moot point. There are no Crapless tables that offer the Fire Bet.
"Fire Bet" is a Trademark, owned by HopBet, Inc. www.hopbet.com
The first sentence on their website says it all:
There's only one thing I'd like to know, which is not addressed anywhere on their website: With a company name like that, are they also the inventors of the Hop Bet?
But it's a moot point. There are no Crapless tables that offer the Fire Bet.
"Fire Bet" is a Trademark, owned by HopBet, Inc. www.hopbet.com
The first sentence on their website says it all:
Crapless is not standard.Quote:A FIRE BET is a patented side wager that can be incorporated into any standard Dice game.
There's only one thing I'd like to know, which is not addressed anywhere on their website: With a company name like that, are they also the inventors of the Hop Bet?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
December 16th, 2009 at 4:40:30 PM
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I did a quick sim 20 million round on this. All 10 points never was made
| Points Made | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.63213425 |
| 1 | 0.24602000 |
| 2 | 0.08627125 |
| 3 | 0.02667240 |
| 4 | 0.00706125 |
| 5 | 0.00153045 |
| 6 | 0.00027080 |
| 7 | 0.00003600 |
| 8 | 0.00000335 |
| 9 | 0.00000025 |
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
December 20th, 2009 at 7:53:30 PM
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thank you. I actually know the guy who invented the fire bet here in Michigan..
December 20th, 2009 at 7:56:47 PM
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How do you do this simulation? Would you say your info is accurate enough to determine a house edge on this?>
December 21st, 2009 at 6:49:55 AM
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Quote: jdubvegas33How do you do this simulation? Would you say your info is accurate enough to determine a house edge on this?>
I used php. My method would not be accurate enough. Infact just looking at it I think it sucks. I'll work on an analysis in excel to get a more accurate result. Making 0 points is 0.63229437229437. Prelimanary results for 1 point is: 0.24599013126363 and 2: 0.081294932809727, but I need to check for typos and brainos :+)
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
December 21st, 2009 at 7:03:18 AM
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Calculating the theoretical HA in this game would be interesting. You would think that the HA would be higher (assuming the theoretical payout of 25 / 250 / 999 to 1 for 4, 5, and 6 points) but there is an offset because it's easier to get 4 different points when there are 10 points on the board.
I am sure this is easy enough to calculate...
I am sure this is easy enough to calculate...
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
December 21st, 2009 at 8:59:05 AM
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Really? According to their web site, the inventor lives in Las Vegas. Maybe he moved.Quote: jdubvegas33thank you. I actually know the guy who invented the fire bet here in Michigan..
But if you know him, maybe you know, or can get, the answer to my other question:
Quote: DJTeddyBearThere's only one thing I'd like to know, which is not addressed anywhere on their website: With a company name like "Hopbet Inc.", are they also the inventors of the Hop Bet?
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
February 24th, 2010 at 1:54:10 AM
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Ok I finaly finished my analysis. It doesn't add up to 1 due to rounding.
Edit on 7/13/14 to add:
Just in case someone stumbles upon this here is a correct table:
spreadsheet
| Points Made | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6322944 |
| 1 | 0.2459901 |
| 2 | 0.0861934 |
| 3 | 0.0266229 |
| 4 | 0.0070513 |
| 5 | 0.0015445 |
| 6 | 0.0002665 |
| 7 | 0.0000339 |
| 8 | 0.0000051 |
| 9 | 0.0000005 |
Edit on 7/13/14 to add:
Just in case someone stumbles upon this here is a correct table:
| Points | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.63229437229 | -1 | -0.6322943723 |
| 1 | 0.24599013126 | -1 | -0.2459901313 |
| 2 | 0.08619336014 | -1 | -0.08619336014 |
| 3 | 0.02662294319 | -1 | -0.02662294319 |
| 4 | 0.00705126058 | 24 | 0.169230254 |
| 5 | 0.00154448824 | 249 | 0.3845775707 |
| 6 | 0.00026653761 | 999 | 0.2662710757 |
| 7 | 0.00003388596 | 999 | 0.03385207888 |
| 8 | 0.00000287835 | 999 | 0.002875469518 |
| 9 | 0.00000013946 | 999 | 0.0001393238923 |
| 10 | 0.00000000290 | 999 | 0.000002896973995 |
| 1.00000000000 | -0.1341521372 |
spreadsheet
Man Babes #AxelFabulous
June 15th, 2021 at 11:35:03 AM
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Deleted. Posted in Easy Math Puzzles thread
Its all about making that GTA
June 15th, 2021 at 7:07:35 PM
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Quote: mipletI did a quick sim 20 million round on this. All 10 points never was made
Points Made Probability 0 0.63213425 1 0.24602000 2 0.08627125 3 0.02667240 4 0.00706125 5 0.00153045 6 0.00027080 7 0.00003600 8 0.00000335 9 0.00000025
So a 24% chance of making one point? I thought I read in a blog here that there's only a 27% chance of making one point in a regular craps game. I guess those promises of making a point after you've already established it really bring down the chances from 40%+.
June 15th, 2021 at 7:21:37 PM
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41% would be the chance to make one or more points. 59% of making none
Its all about making that GTA
June 16th, 2021 at 4:03:46 AM
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Here's a case where a sim doesn't meet reality. To win at Bonus Craps you must roll all ten numbers ONCE without a seven appearing. And the Bonus Craps "all" has hit twice in a row and even three times in a row.
Anyone throwing the "all" twice in a row has, in effect, won the Fire Bet for all numbers in crapless craps.
(With the Fire Bet a winner-7 does not kill the Fire Bet.)
Of course there's the condition of setting each number as the point but it could happen.
Anyone throwing the "all" twice in a row has, in effect, won the Fire Bet for all numbers in crapless craps.
(With the Fire Bet a winner-7 does not kill the Fire Bet.)
Of course there's the condition of setting each number as the point but it could happen.
