"Magic 12" Carnival Game

For an event at my school, I am tossing around the idea of running a carnival game booth that I am calling "Magic 12."

For $0.25, players may choose 2 of 12 numbers (i.e. 1/6 chance of winning).
A Flash animation program will pick a number from 1 to 12 in a creative way, with each number being weighted equally.
Winners get a small prize regardless, but also get to play a bonus game.

The bonus game consists of a box containing 5 balls:

RED	Game Over
RED	Game Over
SILVER	Win $0.50
GOLD	Win $1.00
GREEN	Win $2.00

If a player draws a red ball, the game is over, but keep any winnings they have. If a player draws a money ball, they win the amount corresponding, AND get to draw again.
Winnings are given as Half-Dollars, Gold Presidential Dollars, and Two-Dollar Bills, just to be interesting.
Players draw balls until they win all 3 money amounts, or draw a red ball.

I have set up what I believe to be the correct probability tables, including HA, which I have below.
Does everything look correct?

WINS	Lose %	Win %	Total Prob.	Avg. $ win	Expected $ win
0 wins	40%	-	40%	$0.00	$0.00
1 win	50%	60%	30%	$1.16	$0.35
2 wins	66.7%	50%	20%	$2.33	$0.46
3 wins	-	33.3%	10%	$3.50	$0.35
				Total Exp. Win	$1.16

Cost to play	Expected Win	True Cost	HA
-$1.50	$1.16	-$0.33	22.2%

The idea is not to make money, but to give the kids a fun game to play without draining their small bankrolls too quickly. Kids will be bringing anywhere from $1.00 to $5.00, maybe more. They will have a variety of games to play, arts and crafts, toys and treats, all at varying costs.

One thought I had was to cut the price to $0.10 for 1 number out of 12, which would have this effect on the HA:

Cost to play	Expected Win	True Cost	HA
-$1.20	$1.16	-$0.03	2.22%

Now we're getting into a game that even people in a casino might play! Pending of course, that my calculations are correct.

Thoughts, opinions, corrections or questions?

I'm trying to wrap my head around how you came up with the Lose %, Win %, and Total Prob.

But before I bust out Excel and work on it, my immediate reaction is, this is gambling and would be illegal.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I'm trying to wrap my head around how you came up with the Lose %, Win %, and Total Prob.

OK. I managed to wrap my head around it - without using Excel! It's too early in the morning. I was originally thinking you were replacing the winning balls.

But it's STILL gambling.

There has been a game in the past that gave away candy and/or money depending on if the tip of a chosen golf tee was a certain color... that's what gave me the idea to propose the game like I did.

This game is identical to other games that will be at the event: Put down a dime, spin a wheel, win a stuffed animal or candy. The difference with mine is they not only win a stuffed animal or candy, but they may also win a bonus of an interesting American currency.

DJ, you make a good point. I'm looking to make a fun game for kids, so I could drop the bonus part and leave it as a pick-a-number, win-a-prize booth if need be... I will discuss this with the head of the event.

Not to threadjack myself, but is pick-a-number, win-a-prize gambling? Does adding a $ bonus make it gambling?

If you can put in real money and get more real money out of it than you put in, sounds like gambling, at least formally. IANAL though. Seems to me that the cutoff point where it can count as gambling is when you can win more (in cash) than it costs to play. Just free rounds, better prizes, etc should be fair game.

Yeah, I'm fairly sure that winning cash makes it gambling. Winning a trinket of varying / unknown value makes it a carnival game (not to be confused with casino carnival games).

Do the other games have various levels of prizes?

Make it such that your small prize gets bigger as the winners pick balls that aren't red, and you're OK. Heck, you might even want to replace the balls and make it where the child keeps picking, and the prize keeps growing, until he finally picks a red ball.

What happens if the prize gets to be the biggest you've got? Simple. The child gets the largest prize as well as working on a second prize -- and you add a pink ball.

Why pink? That way, if the child finally pulls out a red ball, you might forget to keep it out. If he pulls out pink, game over, and you'll probably remember to keep it out. If not, or he pulled red, when the next child pulls out the pink ball, you can make it a 'do-over' and remember to keep it out.

---

By the way, about the original question:

I do think you have the math right for a cash game.

I made a Toilet Paper Toss booth this year--toss rolls of toilet paper into a toilet seat on a plywood base. It was considerably more labor-intensive than your idea!

But the kids were happy to pay a dollar and walk away with a Ring Pop. Those things are like crack to kids. Top prize was a playground ball or yo-yo, but they wanted the candy!

Quote: Dween

Not to threadjack myself, but is pick-a-number, win-a-prize gambling? Does adding a $ bonus make it gambling?

Generally, yes, though there are some exceptions based on state laws. You should look into the statutory definition of gambling in your state to be sure. In Oregon (my home state), there are several exceptions:

Quote: ORS 167.117(7)

(7) “Gambling” means that a person stakes or risks something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance or a future contingent event not under the control or influence of the person, upon an agreement or understanding that the person or someone else will receive something of value in the event of a certain outcome. “Gambling” does not include:
(a) Bona fide business transactions valid under the law of contracts for the purchase or sale at a future date of securities or commodities, and agreements to compensate for loss caused by the happening of chance, including but not limited to contracts of indemnity or guaranty and life, health or accident insurance.
(b) Engaging in contests of chance under the following conditions:
(A) The contest is played for some token other than money;
(B) An individual contestant may not purchase more than $100 worth of tokens for use in the contest during any 24-hour period;
(C) The tokens may be exchanged only for property other than money;
(D) Except when the tokens are exchanged for a beverage or merchandise to be consumed on the premises, the tokens are not redeemable on the premises where the contest is conducted or within 50 miles thereof; and
(E) Except for charitable, fraternal or religious organizations, no person who conducts the contest as owner, agent or employee profits in any manner from operation of the contest.
(c) Social games.
(d) Bingo, lotto or raffle games or Monte Carlo events operated in compliance with ORS 167.118, by a charitable, fraternal or religious organization licensed pursuant to ORS 167.118, 464.250 to 464.380 and 464.420 to 464.530 to operate such games.

Without knowing more, I'd say your best bet would be to add an element of skill to your game and avoid the whole issue of illegal gambling. It's not like any of your kids will be APs...

Just as long as a local police officer do not suffer from a "Barney Fife " Seems every so often I read about zealous police
raiding a penny ante poker game with all the players 80 or older?

I'm bumping this thread to update on the Magic 12 Carnival game.

The event will be this Thursday, with a 2.5 hour window for game play.
25 cents will get you 2 numbers out of 12. Winners receive a snack+beverage, or if they run out, a toy/prize.

There are NO MONEY PRIZES --- so this does not fall under gambling.

Question: Which betting layout is better?
In order to offer every number pair with numbers 1-12, I have two possible board layouts. One would be a large grid, such as:

	1 & 2	1 & 3	1 & 4	1 & 5	1 & 6	1 & 7	1 & 8	1 & 9	1 & 10	1 & 11	1 & 12
2 & 1		2 & 3	2 & 4	2 & 5	2 & 6	2 & 7	2 & 8	2 & 9	2 & 10	2 & 11	2 & 12
3 & 1	3 & 2		3 & 4	3 & 5	3 & 6	3 & 7	3 & 8	3 & 9	3 & 10	3 & 11	3 & 12
4 & 1	4 & 2	4 & 3		4 & 5	4 & 6	4 & 7	4 & 8	4 & 9	4 & 10	4 & 11	4 & 12
5 & 1	5 & 2	5 & 3	5 & 4		5 & 6	5 & 7	5 & 8	5 & 9	5 & 10	5 & 11	5 & 12
6 & 1	6 & 2	6 & 3	6 & 4	6 & 5		6 & 7	6 & 8	6 & 9	6 & 10	6 & 11	6 & 12
7 & 1	7 & 2	7 & 3	7 & 4	7 & 5	7 & 6		7 & 8	7 & 9	7 & 10	7 & 11	7 & 12
8 & 1	8 & 2	8 & 3	8 & 4	8 & 5	8 & 6	8 & 7		8 & 9	8 & 10	8 & 11	8 & 12
9 & 1	9 & 2	9 & 3	9 & 4	9 & 5	9 & 6	9 & 7	9 & 8		9 & 10	9 & 11	9 & 12
10 & 1	10 & 2	10 & 3	10 & 4	10 & 5	10 & 6	10 & 7	10 & 8	10 & 9		10 & 11	10 & 12
11 & 1	11 & 2	11 & 3	11 & 4	11 & 5	11 & 6	11 & 7	11 & 8	11 & 9	11 & 10		11 & 12
12 & 1	12 & 2	12 & 3	12 & 4	12 & 5	12 & 6	12 & 7	12 & 8	12 & 9	12 & 10	12 & 11

The other would give only the 66 distinct possibilites in clusters, such as:

1 & 2	1 & 3	1 & 4	1 & 5	1 & 6
2 & 3	2 & 4	2 & 5	2 & 6	2 & 7
3 & 4	3 & 5	3 & 6	3 & 7	3 & 8
4 & 5	4 & 6	4 & 7	4 & 8	4 & 9	4 & 10
5 & 6	5 & 7	5 & 8	5 & 9	5 & 10	5 & 11
6 & 7	6 & 8	6 & 9	6 & 10	6 & 11	6 & 12
7 & 1	7 & 8	7 & 9	7 & 10	7 & 11	7 & 12
8 & 1	8 & 2	8 & 9	8 & 10	8 & 11	8 & 12
9 & 1	9 & 2	9 & 3	9 & 10	9 & 11	9 & 12
10 & 1	10 & 2	10 & 3	10 & 11	10 & 12
11 & 1	11 & 2	11 & 3	11 & 4	11 & 12
12 & 1	12 & 2	12 & 3	12 & 4	12 & 5

Notice in the above that each row's initial number is in sequence, but not every pair is listed. For example, if you wanted to bet 4 & 12, you would not find it in row 4; It is located in row 12, as 12 & 4.

This event is for kids 5-14 years in age. Should I keep it simple and offer the large grid, or tighten it up, and use something more artful? The cluster layout would use a flower/flower petal motif as opposed to straight rows. (Each row would be a flower, with 5 or 6 petals, showing the number pairs on individual petals)

I split the above post to avoid tl;dr.

Magic 12: The program
I also have the number-picking program ready to go. It uses 20 mini-games to randomly choose a number 1-12, evenly weighted. It is set up to play all 20 games through once, then randomly pick the games from there on. Click here to try it. There is sound and background music in each game, worth the price of admission.

Controls
Use the Space Bar to start the game. It then runs itself. When the game resolves, press the Space Bar again to close the game, and prepare for the next.

Other Controls (that would probably don't have to worry about)
Q will quit a game prematurely if necessary. Game 1 (the clock) sometimes takes a while, and looks like it may never stop. Press Q if you want to bail out.
S is a status screen, or debug screen. When no game is being played, it will list all games, show how many games have been played, and show the current "Tour" and "Force" numbers. Press to toggle on/off.
T turns on/off the "Tour" mode. Tour mode runs through each game sequentially. The current Tour number is the next game coming up. The program starts in Tour mode automatically. (Watch bottom right corner when pressing for current status)
F picks a "Force" game. When Force is turned off (zero), games are chosen randomly. Any other Force number makes that game repeat. Tour overrides Force. (Watch bottom right corner when pressing for current status)

Are you sure these are fairly weighted?
Some games do not look evenly distributed (Plinko, Disco Floor). In Plinko, the disc bounces left or right at 50-50 probability, so center numbers are more likely to win. However, the numbers are randomly placed in each bucket before the game starts, so each number is equally likely to fall in each slot. Players place their wagers, THEN see the game.
Other games may use methods of picking numbers that seems to make it impossible for certain numbers to appear (Shark Attack, Dice Drop). There are procedures occurring in the background that pick the number beforehand, then "dress it up" to make it look more interesting.

Please try out the program! Let me know if there are any bugs or improvements you think could be made before the event.

Well this event probably already took place, so let us know how it went, but I'd say that aside from the legality of cash prizes you are committing yourself to nuisance time in physical handling of bills and coins. I don't think the incentive is high enough even on a kid's budget.

Quote: FleaStiff

Well this event probably already took place, so let us know how it went, but I'd say that aside from the legality of cash prizes you are committing yourself to nuisance time in physical handling of bills and coins. I don't think the incentive is high enough even on a kid's budget.

Actually, I just resurrected this dusty thread. The event is happening this Thursday, May 5, 2011.
Read the bottom of page one and top of page two for a couple of questions I have. As stated there, no money prizes are going to be given away.

Wow, your presentation looks great! Very nice work!

In Washington State this would be gambling. (Consideration provided, element of chance)

Quote: Dween

Question: Which betting layout is better?

...

This event is for kids 5-14 years in age.

For that age group, you GOTTA keep it simple.

Either go with the first version, or use a triangle or pyramid, similar to this:
Admin note: removed image www.djteddybear.com/images/magic_12_triangle.png

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: Dween

Question: Which betting layout is better?

...

This event is for kids 5-14 years in age.

For that age group, you GOTTA keep it simple.

Either go with the first version, or use a triangle or pyramid, similar to this:
Admin note: removed image www.djteddybear.com/images/magic_12_triangle.png

The "petal" idea should be fine with each number as a center, and potential matches as the petals. I would recommend having each center number once, ala DJ's wedge above (the center "12" would have 11 petals, the "11" center with 10 petals, etc.)

If you didn't get a chance to play the Magic 12 game, you can click here to try it.
Note: Game 19, the "Dice Drop", is flawed, and may return a number greater than 12. It has been fixed, but not updated at the link yet.

First, the monetary aspect of the booth:

Prizes Bought	272 (136 packs)
Prize Cost	$ 50.00

(Prizes are given away in pairs, or "packs")

Total Bring In	$ 116.25
Expected Wins	77
Actual Wins	75
Booth Profit	$ 66.25
Leftover Prizes	122 (61 packs)

The booth was open for 2 hours. All students, from ages 5 to 14, were thoroughly entertained. Some games had only 1 person on one betting circle, some games their were 8 or 10 people with 20 circles covered. A decent chunk of games had 3, even 4 winners on one play.

I had something in the game code to show how many games were played, but unfortunately, I closed the window before recording it. Some mini-games I saw twice, others 3, up to 4. With 20 games in the mix, I estimate that around 60-75 games were played. This means, on average, we had $1.50 to $2.00 on the board with each spin.

It has been suggested that this game could be used as an "adult" game during the summertime church picnics. I need to check with charitable gaming law about rules I need to follow if this is used in a gambling aspect.

Final note: Here is an image of the betting board. There were 3 trains of thought when people picked their spots:
1. Just put a quarter on the board in a circle. (55%)
2. Find their favorite number, look for it, and put their quarter on any spot containing it. (40%)
3. Carefully look for their preferred number pair, or possibly even spread over 4, 6 or 8 numbers (5%)

Very impressed Dween.

Did you create the swf yourself?

Yes, I created the .swf from scratch, and also isolated and looped the music from various sources. Some graphics are pulled from sprites and screenshots of video games, or clip art, but a good portion of them were created by me.

I have emailed the Kentucky Charitable Gaming Commission, and I am awaiting a reply about using the program in a "Vegas-Style" game for our summer church picnic.

I also have another 10 or so mini-game ideas floating around in my head, half of which are "Vegas" themed. I'll add them in as they are designed, and update the program online.

For those of you keeping track of this story, I got word back from the Charitable Gaming folks.

They said that my program could, in effect, be substituted for a spinning wheel for the purpose of picking a random number.
However, the computer and/or my software would have to be supplied by a licensed distributor, of which I am not, nor wish to be.
Also, the software would likely have to be tested by GLI or Eclipse. Don't know who they are, don't know if it would cost me money.

So it looks like I'll be sticking with using this in the minor leagues at the children's annual funfair at school. No worries, it's a big hit, and a very decent money maker!

Thanks for sharing these awesome tricks of "Magic 12" Carnival Game . I always like that type Maths tricks and puzzle games.