Freaky Hold 'em Hand

Yes, this actually happened. It's going to sound preposterous, but it's true.

I was getting short in a 9-handed tournament, got dealt Big Slick, and figured that was the hand to take my stand on--all-in, thank you. A guy behind me raised, another guy re-raised, and all of a sudden it was 3-way all-in.

The hands: A-K off (me), A-K (might have been suited, can't remember) for the guy who raised, and A-A for the last guy. Yes, it really was pocket rockets against two different Big Slicks.

I tried to figure the odds of that happening, and came up with something like 1 in 305 million. That can't be right--I know that's a freaky hand, but it's not THAT freaky. Or is it? What are the odds of that happening: Pocket rockets getting dealt against two separate Big Slicks, in a 9-hand game?

I know I'm a dead duck in that situation, but mathematically, how dead was I there?

I make it 1 in 50,896,300
So not that far :-)

Quote: HandsOfWind

I know I'm a dead duck in that situation, but mathematically, how dead was I there?

You were WAY behind, but not completely dead.

Using the Wizard's Texas Hold-Em Calculator, I figure you have about 6% chance of survival:

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Quote: HandsOfWind

I was getting short in a 9-handed tournament, got dealt Big Slick, and figured that was the hand to take my stand on--all-in, thank you. A guy behind me raised, another guy re-raised, and all of a sudden it was 3-way all-in.

That's not a very strong hand. Some people will only call a suited AK "Big Slick". AK is a good hand, but not nearly as strong as players often believe it to be.

To be more precise, the chances of AA winning on a full-table showdown are 31.1%, AK suited 20.7%, and AK unsuited only 17.2% - the same as a pair of 10s. Head to head, AKo has a 65% chance of winning, versus 85% for AA.

The value of AK comes in post-flop play, because you get to know exactly where you stand - you either improve or miss the flop and fold, while with a technically stronger JJ (19.2%) you'd keep wondering if you are strong enough. It's a valuable hand because it loses less on a miss, but as an all-in hand it's nothing special, middle of the road among playable hands in ABC TAG.

To be more precise, the chances of AA winning on a full-table showdown are 31.1%, AK suited 20.7%, and AK unsuited only 17.2% - the same as a pair of 10s. Head to head, AKo has a 65% chance of winning, versus 85% for AA.

When is the last time you saw full-table showdown ????????? Not for serious money, not play money and never in tournament play!!

Zeke: It's a twister! It's a twister!

Quote: buzzpaff

When is the last time you saw full-table showdown ?????????

It doesn't matter much, a hand that's weaker at a full table is still weaker with 6, 4 or 2 players.
With six players, AA wins half the time, while AKo has a 28% chance.

Though actually with fewer players AKo gets weaker among playable hands (more precisely, ordinarily weak middle and low pairs get much stronger), for instance with 2 players it's only between a pair of sixes and a pair of sevens.