The Better Play
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March 6th, 2011 at 7:00:15 AM
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If you are dealt a 5 card poker hand and you are allowed to draw zero, one or two cards only (seven players at the table), what is your best play with a low pair and four cards to a flush? Something like 3,3,7,8,Q where the Q,8,7 and one of the 3s are all the same suit. Is it better to try for the three of a kind by tossing the 7 and 8 or is it better to toss the off-suit 3 and pray for a 9 in 47 chance hitting the flush?
1) Discard one, try for flush:
Flush: 9/47 = 0.19149
Pair: 12/47 = 0.25532
Nothing: 1 - 0.19149 - 0.25532 = 0.55319
2) Discard two, try for trips:
Trip 3s: 1-(45/47)*(44/46) = 0.08418
2 Pair: 1 - (44/47)*(40/46) = 0.18594
Pair of 3s: 1 - 0.08418 - 0.18594 = 0.72988
(check my logic plz)
You are one of seven players, you didn't fold, what would you do?
1) Discard one, try for flush:
Flush: 9/47 = 0.19149
Pair: 12/47 = 0.25532
Nothing: 1 - 0.19149 - 0.25532 = 0.55319
2) Discard two, try for trips:
Trip 3s: 1-(45/47)*(44/46) = 0.08418
2 Pair: 1 - (44/47)*(40/46) = 0.18594
Pair of 3s: 1 - 0.08418 - 0.18594 = 0.72988
(check my logic plz)
You are one of seven players, you didn't fold, what would you do?
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
