Doubts about Free Bet Blackjack Math
February 10th, 2026 at 1:00:05 AM
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Hi everyone,
Recently, I’ve been studying Free Bet Blackjack and analyzing some data from the wizard website. According to Wizard's standard rules and basic strategy (which aligns with my own strategy validation), I found the house edge to be 1.01%, which slightly differs from (and is actually lower than) the 1.04% listed on the website. I suspect that unspecified rule details on the website might include: there is a hole card and the dealer peeks for blackjack (my assumption), and the rule that split Aces can receive only one additional card(but splits up to 4 hands).
Furthermore, a simple verification shows a discrepancy: both my simulation and theoretical calculations yield a probability of 0.838228071 for "0 tokens" in the Pot of Gold side bet (calculated by determining the probabilities for dealer blackjack and non-FD/FP hands). This is a notable gap from Wizard's random simulation result of 0.833420. Has anyone else researched this? Could this be due to rule inconsistencies or potential errors in my calculations?
Here are my simulation results for reference
Game Nums 1,000,000,000
Total Real Bets 1,005,037,723.00
Total Free Bets 186,178,244.00
Total Pays 994,902,597.50
RTP 98.99%
Total Hands 1,050,249,652
Real Money Hand
BlackJack Win Hands 45,320,847
Win Hands(except BJ) 270,563,448
Tie Hands 124,526,226
Loss Hands 428,347,887
Double Win Hands 2,079,509
Double Tie Hands 733,936
Double Loss Hands 1,886,768
Free Double Win Hands 54,712,746
Free Double Tie Hands 20,345,713
Free Double Loss Hands 51,820,430
Surrender Hands 0
Free Money Hand
Win Hands(except BJ) 13,555,731
Tie Hands 5,475,572
Loss Hands 21,493,626
Free Double Win Hands 4,060,884
Free Double Tie Hands 1,505,887
Free Double Loss Hands 3,820,442
Banker Push 22 Game Nums 73,535,474
Free Bet Nums
0 Free Bet 838,233,902
1 Free Bet 143,412,297
2 Free Bet 13,575,090
3 Free Bet 3,742,567
4 Free Bet 822,491
5 Free Bet 185,768
6 Free Bet 25,933
7 Free Bet 1,952
Recently, I’ve been studying Free Bet Blackjack and analyzing some data from the wizard website. According to Wizard's standard rules and basic strategy (which aligns with my own strategy validation), I found the house edge to be 1.01%, which slightly differs from (and is actually lower than) the 1.04% listed on the website. I suspect that unspecified rule details on the website might include: there is a hole card and the dealer peeks for blackjack (my assumption), and the rule that split Aces can receive only one additional card(but splits up to 4 hands).
Furthermore, a simple verification shows a discrepancy: both my simulation and theoretical calculations yield a probability of 0.838228071 for "0 tokens" in the Pot of Gold side bet (calculated by determining the probabilities for dealer blackjack and non-FD/FP hands). This is a notable gap from Wizard's random simulation result of 0.833420. Has anyone else researched this? Could this be due to rule inconsistencies or potential errors in my calculations?
Here are my simulation results for reference
Game Nums 1,000,000,000
Total Real Bets 1,005,037,723.00
Total Free Bets 186,178,244.00
Total Pays 994,902,597.50
RTP 98.99%
Total Hands 1,050,249,652
Real Money Hand
BlackJack Win Hands 45,320,847
Win Hands(except BJ) 270,563,448
Tie Hands 124,526,226
Loss Hands 428,347,887
Double Win Hands 2,079,509
Double Tie Hands 733,936
Double Loss Hands 1,886,768
Free Double Win Hands 54,712,746
Free Double Tie Hands 20,345,713
Free Double Loss Hands 51,820,430
Surrender Hands 0
Free Money Hand
Win Hands(except BJ) 13,555,731
Tie Hands 5,475,572
Loss Hands 21,493,626
Free Double Win Hands 4,060,884
Free Double Tie Hands 1,505,887
Free Double Loss Hands 3,820,442
Banker Push 22 Game Nums 73,535,474
Free Bet Nums
0 Free Bet 838,233,902
1 Free Bet 143,412,297
2 Free Bet 13,575,090
3 Free Bet 3,742,567
4 Free Bet 822,491
5 Free Bet 185,768
6 Free Bet 25,933
7 Free Bet 1,952
February 10th, 2026 at 1:19:08 PM
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The probability of getting 7 gold coins on the side bet is about 1 in 500,000, so you'll be losing until you hit that a few times early for the 1,000 to 1 payouts.
