Number of Craps Rolls per turn
Just to make sure my question is clear: if we initially roll a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12, that round is over with just 1 roll.
If we hit a point of 9, then we roll a 4, a 12, and a 9, that round is over with 4 rolls. And so on.
Also remember that table counts the seven out a a roll. So 8.5 mean includes the roll that is the seven loser.
Calculate the probability of seven out on second roll.
Establish point on first roll with 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10: 24/36 chance.
Seven out on second roll: 6/36 chance.
Chance of both happening is 24/36 * 6/ 36 =0.111
Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
a) If consider PUSH is a valid round, rolls/round = 3/36 + 1/36 + 8/36 + 15/36 + 15/36 + 18.4/36 + 18.4/36 + 235/396 + 235/396 = 557/165 = 3.3757576
b) If NOT consider PUSH is a valid round, rolls/round = 3/35 + 1/35 + 8/35 + 15/35 + 15/35 + 18.4/35 + 18.4/35 + 235/385 + 235/385 = 6684/1925 = 3.4722078
PUSH = First roll total is 12.
Quote: findingEVDo you know of anywhere that provides the number of rolls if we also consider hitting the point to be the end of the round?
Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
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Yes I follow. That’s the average number of rolls to resolve a pass line bet: 3.376.
https://wizardofodds.com/article/average-bet-resolved-per-throw-in-craps/#:~:text=There%20is%20a%206/36,to%20the%20one%20point%20player.
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
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I find your “request” amusing…
If I were so inclined, I would post only the math and omit the answer.
But I’m not.
Why would anyone here want to give you more fuel to call the calculations a “hoax”, hmmm?
Quote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
link to original post
Without bringing math into it, I'd say the odds of rolling a 7 within 5 rolls are pretty good.
Quote: camaplQuote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
link to original post
I find your “request” amusing…
If I were so inclined, I would post only the math and omit the answer.
But I’m not.
Why would anyone here want to give you more fuel to call the calculations a “hoax”, hmmm?
link to original post
First of all, camapl, that discussion is OVER. If you cannot answer the questions, just say so without the snot. Again, I am asking for the ODDS of the event happening. When answered, I will proceed to inform all of my "OUTSIDE THE BOX" bubble craps play kinda like MDawg's adventures.
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeThe odds of getting any 7 is 1 out of 6. The odds of getting any 7 five times in a row is 1 out of 7,776.
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Man, CC you just need to read the question. Most everyone should know that the 7 mathematically appears 1 out 6 times in a perfect world or 16.7% of the time. Again, what are the ODDS of a 7 OUT happening after a point is established within 5 rolls of the dice and 11 rolls of the dice without converting the established point?
tuttigym
But John Patrick was out long ago with his 5-count for something or another, was it on the DC? If a 7 comes up every 6 rolls on average and you put up a DC bet on every 5th roll you stand a chance to get a hurried decision on your bets. Is that how it goes?
Quote: DieterQuote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
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Without bringing math into it, I'd say the odds of rolling a 7 within 5 rolls are pretty good.
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Yep, good answer just not specific enough for my purposes. That rascally 7OUT seems to screw every "establishment" right side player and doesn't appear often enough for the "dark" side to be highly profitable.
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeThat DiceData guy does not have an answer for you, so I don't either.
But John Patrick was out long ago with his 5-count for something or another, was it on the DC? If a 7 comes up every 6 rolls on average and you put up a DC bet on every 5th roll you stand a chance to get a hurried decision on your bets. Is that how it goes?
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Dice Data guy? Is there a link? Are you suggesting that our highly math savants can't give real answers to this seemingly very simple question?
Wizard are you or the others insulted?
As far as your question above concerning John Patrick, the DC, and the five count, the answer is a resounding NO.
tuttigym
Is that wrong? OK, I'll add 1 to it. There's a 1:1 chance of a 7 showing up within 5 rolls after the point gets established and a 1:2 (edit) chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established. These are refigured because the point established was not a 7.
Quote: ChumpChangeOK, I'll give it another off-the-cuff shot. There's a 5/6 chance there will be a 7 within 5 rolls after the point gets established, and an 11/6 chance of a 7 within 11 rolls of the point being established.
Is that wrong? OK, I'll add 1 to it. There's a 1:1 chance of a 7 showing up within 5 rolls after the point gets established and a 2:1 chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established. These are refigured because the point established was not a 7.
link to original post
OK, thanks for that, although, I am not sure a portion of your answers are correct.
So, you are posting that there is an 83% chance/odds that the 7 OUT will occur within 5 rolls of a point establishment. I can go with that, and of course, variances will skew those odds.
The 1:1 "chance of a 7 showing within 5 rolls after the point gets established" = 100% and that is not happening in a random game of craps. I am also not buying your "2:1 or 50% chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established" as that number should be closer 90+% if your 83% figure is correct.
So, let's see if there are others who will weigh in with numbers that either agree or refine your answers.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: camaplQuote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
link to original post
I find your “request” amusing…
If I were so inclined, I would post only the math and omit the answer.
But I’m not.
Why would anyone here want to give you more fuel to call the calculations a “hoax”, hmmm?
link to original post
First of all, camapl, that discussion is OVER. If you cannot answer the questions, just say so without the snot. Again, I am asking for the ODDS of the event happening. When answered, I will proceed to inform all of my "OUTSIDE THE BOX" bubble craps play kinda like MDawg's adventures.
tuttigym
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It was your snot to begin with, “boss”… I’m just trying to return it to ya! You’re welcome.
You claim to have an edge with your craps play, yet you need someone to do the figurin’ for ya’ before you can ‘splain it to us? Hard pass.
You do in fact need to win about 2 out of 3 times when you are resolving an established number [with 7-out, Darkside winner] as a Don't player. That's winning a lot for sure, you can go a long time losing 2 out of 3 instead. But the problem lies with the fact that you lose too often when 7 and 11 are rolled in the come-out .... you have to make up for that by 'killing it' with those 7-outs, you won't get enough help with rolling craps 2,3 [Darkside winner]Quote: tuttigym
... That rascally 7OUT seems to screw every "establishment" right side player and doesn't appear often enough for the "dark" side to be highly profitable.
tuttigym
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Conversely, you can come out ahead by resolving as a win an established number less than half the time Rightside. You have the come-out early resolution action working for you instead of against you , and you get paid better than even money.
So why do I now usually play Darkside? Fact is, you get the same results roughly in the long run, plus there are other reasons to do it. You do have to embrace the tension of winning the large proportion of numbers to be resolved.
See there, no 5th grade math!
Quote: tuttigymQuote: ChumpChangeOK, I'll give it another off-the-cuff shot. There's a 5/6 chance there will be a 7 within 5 rolls after the point gets established, and an 11/6 chance of a 7 within 11 rolls of the point being established.
Is that wrong? OK, I'll add 1 to it. There's a 1:1 chance of a 7 showing up within 5 rolls after the point gets established and a 2:1 chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established. These are refigured because the point established was not a 7.
link to original post
OK, thanks for that, although, I am not sure a portion of your answers are correct.
So, you are posting that there is an 83% chance/odds that the 7 OUT will occur within 5 rolls of a point establishment. I can go with that, and of course, variances will skew those odds.
The 1:1 "chance of a 7 showing within 5 rolls after the point gets established" = 100% and that is not happening in a random game of craps. I am also not buying your "2:1 or 50% chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established" as that number should be closer 90+% if your 83% figure is correct.
So, let's see if there are others who will weigh in with numbers that either agree or refine your answers.
tuttigym
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The odds of that depend upon which point number was established.
Quote: odiousgambitYou do in fact need to win about 2 out of 3 times when you are resolving an established number [with 7-out, Darkside winner] as a Don't player. That's winning a lot for sure, you can go a long time losing 2 out of 3 instead. But the problem lies with the fact that you lose too often when 7 and 11 are rolled in the come-out .... you have to make up for that by 'killing it' with those 7-outs, you won't get enough help with rolling craps 2,3 [Darkside winner]Quote: tuttigym
... That rascally 7OUT seems to screw every "establishment" right side player and doesn't appear often enough for the "dark" side to be highly profitable.
tuttigym
link to original post
Conversely, you can come out ahead by resolving as a win an established number less than half the time Rightside. You have the come-out early resolution action working for you instead of against you , and you get paid better than even money.
So why do I now usually play Darkside? Fact is, you get the same results roughly in the long run, plus there are other reasons to do it. You do have to embrace the tension of winning the large proportion of numbers to be resolved.
See there, no 5th grade math!
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Your explanation above is valid, and I do not question it. If one were to think "outside the box," there is a way to equalize the Don't payouts using third grade math. Additional risk may be present, but it is after all gambling.
tuttigym
Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: ChumpChangeOK, I'll give it another off-the-cuff shot. There's a 5/6 chance there will be a 7 within 5 rolls after the point gets established, and an 11/6 chance of a 7 within 11 rolls of the point being established.
Is that wrong? OK, I'll add 1 to it. There's a 1:1 chance of a 7 showing up within 5 rolls after the point gets established and a 2:1 chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established. These are refigured because the point established was not a 7.
link to original post
OK, thanks for that, although, I am not sure a portion of your answers are correct.
So, you are posting that there is an 83% chance/odds that the 7 OUT will occur within 5 rolls of a point establishment. I can go with that, and of course, variances will skew those odds.
The 1:1 "chance of a 7 showing within 5 rolls after the point gets established" = 100% and that is not happening in a random game of craps. I am also not buying your "2:1 or 50% chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established" as that number should be closer 90+% if your 83% figure is correct.
So, let's see if there are others who will weigh in with numbers that either agree or refine your answers.
tuttigym
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The odds of that depend upon which point number was established.
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Thanks, unjon for that. I realize that point conversion reduces the ODDS in my question, but that is the other variable I might tackle, and that is why I wanted to keep the "math" simple deleting the possible variables.
So, can you answer the basic questions above?
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeI meant there's a 200% chance of hitting a 7 in 12 rolls, and a 300% chance of hitting a 7 in 18 rolls and a 400% chance of hitting a 7 in 24 rolls and a 500% chance of hitting a 7 in 30 rolls. They're overdue! Of course, when a point gets hit and a come-out roll 7-winner comes along, start the count over again. I'll typically get stuck waiting 18+ rolls for a point to either hit or miss.
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I do not think that is how it works.
Quote: DieterQuote: ChumpChangeI meant there's a 200% chance of hitting a 7 in 12 rolls, and a 300% chance of hitting a 7 in 18 rolls and a 400% chance of hitting a 7 in 24 rolls and a 500% chance of hitting a 7 in 30 rolls. They're overdue! Of course, when a point gets hit and a come-out roll 7-winner comes along, start the count over again. I'll typically get stuck waiting 18+ rolls for a point to either hit or miss.
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I do not think that is how it works.
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I agree. So, have I stumped the math elites, i.e. Wizard and or ThatDonGuy(sp) possibly others?
Come on, does this math question belong on Easy Math Puzzles?
tuttigym
Quote: ChumpChangeOK, is there a 200% chance of hitting a Royal Flush in 80,000 hands or a 300% chance in 120,000 hands on Video Poker? Might even hit them back to back after waiting.
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Not even close to being on point or comparable.
tuttigym
Quote: unJonQuote: findingEVDo you know of anywhere that provides the number of rolls if we also consider hitting the point to be the end of the round?
Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
link to original post
Yes I follow. That’s the average number of rolls to resolve a pass line bet: 3.376.
https://wizardofodds.com/article/average-bet-resolved-per-throw-in-craps/#:~:text=There%20is%20a%206/36,to%20the%20one%20point%20player.
link to original post
What is the average number of rolls in a Round? If a round does not end until the shooter sevens out.
Quote: acesideQuote: unJonQuote: findingEVDo you know of anywhere that provides the number of rolls if we also consider hitting the point to be the end of the round?
Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
link to original post
Yes I follow. That’s the average number of rolls to resolve a pass line bet: 3.376.
https://wizardofodds.com/article/average-bet-resolved-per-throw-in-craps/#:~:text=There%20is%20a%206/36,to%20the%20one%20point%20player.
link to original post
What is the average number of rolls in a Round? If a round does not end until the shooter sevens out.
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Approx 8.5
Quote: tuttigymQuote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: ChumpChangeOK, I'll give it another off-the-cuff shot. There's a 5/6 chance there will be a 7 within 5 rolls after the point gets established, and an 11/6 chance of a 7 within 11 rolls of the point being established.
Is that wrong? OK, I'll add 1 to it. There's a 1:1 chance of a 7 showing up within 5 rolls after the point gets established and a 2:1 chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established. These are refigured because the point established was not a 7.
link to original post
OK, thanks for that, although, I am not sure a portion of your answers are correct.
So, you are posting that there is an 83% chance/odds that the 7 OUT will occur within 5 rolls of a point establishment. I can go with that, and of course, variances will skew those odds.
The 1:1 "chance of a 7 showing within 5 rolls after the point gets established" = 100% and that is not happening in a random game of craps. I am also not buying your "2:1 or 50% chance of the 7 showing up within 11 rolls after the point gets established" as that number should be closer 90+% if your 83% figure is correct.
So, let's see if there are others who will weigh in with numbers that either agree or refine your answers.
tuttigym
link to original post
The odds of that depend upon which point number was established.
link to original post
Thanks, unjon for that. I realize that point conversion reduces the ODDS in my question, but that is the other variable I might tackle, and that is why I wanted to keep the "math" simple deleting the possible variables.
So, can you answer the basic questions above?
tuttigym
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I don’t understand the question. What do you mean by ignoring the point conversion.
Quote: unJonQuote: acesideQuote: unJonQuote: findingEVDo you know of anywhere that provides the number of rolls if we also consider hitting the point to be the end of the round?
Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
link to original post
Yes I follow. That’s the average number of rolls to resolve a pass line bet: 3.376.
https://wizardofodds.com/article/average-bet-resolved-per-throw-in-craps/#:~:text=There%20is%20a%206/36,to%20the%20one%20point%20player.
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What is the average number of rolls in a Round? If a round does not end until the shooter sevens out.
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Approx 8.5
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I see. I guess this is just a problem of summing up several infinite series.
Quote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
link to original post
Questions:
1. By "Do not include the possible point conversion," are you asking for the probability of, for example, sevening out within 5 rolls once the point is established if the only other possible result is to have the point still in play after 5 rolls?
2. Do you want a single answer that is calculated over all possible points, or do you want separate answers for points of 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8?
Quote: tuttigymQuote: DieterQuote: ChumpChangeI meant there's a 200% chance of hitting a 7 in 12 rolls, and a 300% chance of hitting a 7 in 18 rolls and a 400% chance of hitting a 7 in 24 rolls and a 500% chance of hitting a 7 in 30 rolls. They're overdue! Of course, when a point gets hit and a come-out roll 7-winner comes along, start the count over again. I'll typically get stuck waiting 18+ rolls for a point to either hit or miss.
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I do not think that is how it works.
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I agree. So, have I stumped the math elites, i.e. Wizard and or ThatDonGuy(sp) possibly others?
Come on, does this math question belong on Easy Math Puzzles?
tuttigym
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No, this isn't complicated enough to be disguised as an easy math puzzle.
We're also not supposed to use math.
Quote: unJonI don’t understand the question. What do you mean by ignoring the point conversion.
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The shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymThe shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?
tuttigym
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In that case, it depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438)
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030)
11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957)
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
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Questions:
1. By "Do not include the possible point conversion," are you asking for the probability of, for example, sevening out within 5 rolls once the point is established if the only other possible result is to have the point still in play after 5 rolls?
2. Do you want a single answer that is calculated over all possible points, or do you want separate answers for points of 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8?
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Thank you ThatDonGuy.
Question 1 is YES.
I was going to ask Question 2 later in the conversation, but if you could compute Question 2, that would also be wonderful.
I did not want the math because for some, including me, it can be confusing, and it has nothing to do with the ODDS outcome you are calculating.
tuttigym
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: tuttigymThe shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?
tuttigym
link to original post
In that case, it depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438)
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030)
11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957)
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)
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THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU.
Just so I am clear, if the point is 4/10, there is a 68% chance that a 7 out will occur within the next 5 rolls before a point conversion? 5/9 = 71%; 6/8 = 74%? Not criticizing here but to my logical mind that seems upside down because the 6/8 would be converted easier than the 4/10.
The 11 roll percentages actually reflect what I am saying about the 5 roll answer. Am I missing something?
Still THANK YOU.
tuttigym
additions mineQuote: ThatDonGuyit depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)................. 1 in 1.4667
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438) ............... 1 in 1.4076
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030) .............. 1 in 1.3531
you could say the 7-out happens not quite 2 out of 3 times on average, assuming not resolved otherwise, with point of 6/8 especially lower than 2 out of 3
additions mine againQuote:11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957) .................... 1 in 1.0661
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)........... 1 in 1.0478
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)......... 1 in 1.0338
for 11 rolls, you can say there is a 7-out almost every time, on average, assuming it hasn't resolved otherwise
I can't verify the math but I thought you might be stumped by 0.967285 etc.
Once you decide that 'almost every time' is just the ticket, you'll get a fresh reminder that nothing stops it from resolving the other way. And, for a real stumper, once you decide that 11 rolls is for you, the 7-out just as easily could occur instantly as on the 11th roll
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Quote: tuttigymQuote: ThatDonGuyQuote: tuttigymI want to phrase the question a bit differently: What are the ODDS of a 7 out after a point is established with in 5 rolls of the dice, within 11 rolls of the dice? ( do NOT include the possible point conversion).
p.s. Do NOT include the MATH.
tuttigym
link to original post
Questions:
1. By "Do not include the possible point conversion," are you asking for the probability of, for example, sevening out within 5 rolls once the point is established if the only other possible result is to have the point still in play after 5 rolls?
2. Do you want a single answer that is calculated over all possible points, or do you want separate answers for points of 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8?
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Thank you ThatDonGuy.
Question 1 is YES.
I was going to ask Question 2 later in the conversation, but if you could compute Question 2, that would also be wonderful.
I did not want the math because for some, including me, it can be confusing, and it has nothing to do with the ODDS outcome you are calculating.
tuttigym
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Regarding the bolded portion of your statement, I can’t tell if it’s hubris or ignorance…
Quote: DieterNo, this isn't complicated enough to be disguised as an easy math puzzle.
We're also not supposed to use math.
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No, Dieter, I did NOT post to not use the math, I just did not need to see the math. It confuses me. any way ThatDonGuy did it all.
tuttigym
Quote: camaplRegarding the bolded portion of your statement, I can’t tell if it’s hubris or ignorance…
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That's right, YOU CAN'T TELL.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: camaplRegarding the bolded portion of your statement, I can’t tell if it’s hubris or ignorance…
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That's right, YOU CAN'T TELL.
tuttigym
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Now I can.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: tuttigymThe shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?
tuttigym
link to original post
In that case, it depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438)
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030)
11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957)
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)
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Does he even realize that you’ve provided the answers the he demanded? lol
What sounds better, hub-norance or ignor-ris?
Quote: camaplQuote: ThatDonGuyQuote: tuttigymThe shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?
tuttigym
link to original post
In that case, it depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438)
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030)
11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957)
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)
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Does he even realize that you’ve provided the answers the he demanded? lol
What sounds better, hub-norance or ignor-ris?
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Apparently reading comprehension is not your strong suit.
tuttigym
Quote: odiousgambitadditions mineQuote: ThatDonGuyit depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)................. 1 in 1.4667
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438) ............... 1 in 1.4076
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030) .............. 1 in 1.3531
you could say the 7-out happens not quite 2 out of 3 times on average, assuming not resolved otherwise, with point of 6/8 especially lower than 2 out of 3additions mine againQuote:11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957) .................... 1 in 1.0661
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)........... 1 in 1.0478
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)......... 1 in 1.0338
for 11 rolls, you can say there is a 7-out almost every time, on average, assuming it hasn't resolved otherwise
I can't verify the math but I thought you might be stumped by 0.967285 etc.
Once you decide that 'almost every time' is just the ticket, you'll get a fresh reminder that nothing stops it from resolving the other way. And, for a real stumper, once you decide that 11 rolls is for you, the 7-out just as easily could occur instantly as on the 11th roll
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THANK YOU og for the additions. Please indulge me, does the (0.967285) actually convert to about 97% odds that the 7 out will occur before the point conversion similarly noting the other decimal examples? And yes, I am aware that a variance beyond 11 dice rolls can and does happen. So, thanks for that reminder.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: ThatDonGuyQuote: tuttigymThe shooter establishes a point at CO. He throws the dice 5 times WO converting the point. What are the ODDS the shooter 7's out within that 5 roll hand?
tuttigym
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In that case, it depends on what the point was:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 1562 / 2291 (0.681798)
5 rolls, point 5/9: 910,965 / 1,282,258 (0.710438)
5 rolls, point 6/8: 27,654,846 / 37,420,471 (0.739030)
11 rolls, point 4/10: 8,034,314 / 8,565,755 (0.937957)
11 rolls, point 5/9: 37,485,749,811,117 / 39,277,910,205,154 (0.954372)
11 rolls, point 6/8: 70,493,191,664,319,006 / 72,877,377,455,334,631 (0.967285)
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THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU.
Just so I am clear, if the point is 4/10, there is a 68% chance that a 7 out will occur within the next 5 rolls before a point conversion? 5/9 = 71%; 6/8 = 74%? Not criticizing here but to my logical mind that seems upside down because the 6/8 would be converted easier than the 4/10.
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No. There is a 68% chance that a 7 out will occur within the next five rolls if you make the assumption that you will not make the point. You specifically said to ignore the cases where the point was made.
If you want the probability of sevening out within 5 or 7 rolls without making the point first:
5 rolls, point 4/10: 781 / 1536 (0.508464)
5 rolls, point 5/9: 303,655 / 629,856 (0.482102)
5 rolls, point 6/8: 4,609,141 / 10,077,696 (0.457361)
11 rolls, point 4/10: 4,017,157 / 6,291,456 (0.638510)
11 rolls, point 5/9: 12,495,249,937,039 / 21,422,803,359,744 (0.583269)
11 rolls, point 6/8: 11,748,865,277,386,501 / 21,936,950,640,377,856 (0.535574)
