findingEV
findingEV 
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August 6th, 2025 at 1:06:34 PM permalink
My question is this: how many rolls, on average/mean, will occur in one "round" of craps?

Just to make sure my question is clear: if we initially roll a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12, that round is over with just 1 roll.

If we hit a point of 9, then we roll a 4, a 12, and a 9, that round is over with 4 rolls. And so on.
unJon
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August 6th, 2025 at 1:08:48 PM permalink
Round on that page is until the shooter sevens out.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
findingEV
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August 6th, 2025 at 1:11:50 PM permalink
I can't link the post (because I haven't posted enough on here to have permission to do so), but on wizard of odds dot com /games/craps/number-of-rolls/, even if it only counts the shooter hitting a 7, what is that happening only 1/9th of the time on roll 2?
unJon
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August 6th, 2025 at 1:28:43 PM permalink
Yes that’s right. But you could also roll 200 times (as high as the table on that page goes) before you seven out. The mean is calculated by adding up the number of times rolled by the probability it is the seven out roll.

Also remember that table counts the seven out a a roll. So 8.5 mean includes the roll that is the seven loser.

Calculate the probability of seven out on second roll.

Establish point on first roll with 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10: 24/36 chance.

Seven out on second roll: 6/36 chance.

Chance of both happening is 24/36 * 6/ 36 =0.111
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
findingEV
findingEV 
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August 6th, 2025 at 1:31:05 PM permalink
Do you know of anywhere that provides the number of rolls if we also consider hitting the point to be the end of the round?

Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
ChumpChange
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August 6th, 2025 at 2:08:06 PM permalink
Come-out rolls can win or lose for you without ending your turn to shoot the dice. Once the point is established, you can put down an odds bet on the point. You'll be wondering how often those odds bets pay off. On a typical table in the current time frame, a $10 table would have $10 Pass Line bets with odds bets up to $30, $40, $50 (a 3,4,5X odds table) but most shooters may just put up double odds or $20. How long you have to wait for a point to resolve? If you are trying to get out of the casino to catch a bus, expect at least 25 more rolls. It's good to get off of the table and not push closing time limits.
ssho88
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August 6th, 2025 at 2:11:35 PM permalink
For DON'T PASS :-

a) If consider PUSH is a valid round, rolls/round = 3/36 + 1/36 + 8/36 + 15/36 + 15/36 + 18.4/36 + 18.4/36 + 235/396 + 235/396 = 557/165 = 3.3757576
b) If NOT consider PUSH is a valid round, rolls/round = 3/35 + 1/35 + 8/35 + 15/35 + 15/35 + 18.4/35 + 18.4/35 + 235/385 + 235/385 = 6684/1925 = 3.4722078

PUSH = First roll total is 12.
unJon
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August 6th, 2025 at 2:27:20 PM permalink
Quote: findingEV

Do you know of anywhere that provides the number of rolls if we also consider hitting the point to be the end of the round?

Maybe a cleaner way of asking is this: if I bet $1 on the Pass Line before a come-out roll, how many rolls on average will I have to wait for my bet to either win or lose?
link to original post



Yes I follow. That’s the average number of rolls to resolve a pass line bet: 3.376.

https://wizardofodds.com/article/average-bet-resolved-per-throw-in-craps/#:~:text=There%20is%20a%206/36,to%20the%20one%20point%20player.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
findingEV
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August 6th, 2025 at 2:50:40 PM permalink
Thank you very much!
findingEV
findingEV 
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August 6th, 2025 at 2:52:16 PM permalink
Perfect -- thank you for the link as well
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