Theo EV vs Actual EV - HELP

Hey all,
If there is already a thread pertaining to my question then please direct me there.

I have a pay table that generates an EV of -9.43170%. But when I run simulations, the EV that generates from that sim is roughly -11.6%.
I calculated the theo EV in two different ways and come up with the exact same answer.

I have looked at my sim - which I coded in Excel - and everything there looks good. I am using the probabilities from Wizards site.

Is there any advice that someone can give? This is my first shot at creating a pay table for baccarat.

I am calculating the EV from the sims by taking the RTH and dividing it by the total amount wagered - RTH/total amount wagered


Thanks in advance!

Any way that we can get a look at the code?

I will try and get some snippets of the code here shortly. *I will probably alter some things lol

It is pretty basic code. I have a random number that gets generated and will reference the "Possible Outcomes in 8-Deck Baccarat" chart found on Wizard's site. And if that random number is below a threshold then the pay table wins; then the code will determine which pay out to give based on the seven different payouts in the pay table depending on where the random number falls.

The pay table should be winning 2.2533% of the time according to my calculations.... and the sims are saying the pay table is winning 2.2533% of the time. So, it appears the code is working like it should, if it wasn't, then that percentage would be higher or lower.

For the simulations, I am assuming 82 hands per shoe - 8 deck shoe. For each sim, I simulate 100,000 shoes.... so 8,200,000 hands of baccarat for each sim. At one point I sim'ed 6,000,000 shoes... so that's 492,000,000 hands of baccarat and the EV is still sitting around 11.6%. I have even reset the sim and still the same number.

I might post the probabilities of each win in my pay table and assign the pay odds to each win and see if someone can find my mistake. I am assuming it is the pay table... but maybe there is supposed to be a difference from theo and actual EV? Unless I am calculating the actual EV incorrectly.

**deleted**

I HAVE FIGURED IT OUT!!!!

I was thinking about how to track the win/loss of the bet incorrectly in my code.... ugh

Just came to mind randomly about what I was doing wrong!!

Math and code was functioning perfectly... human error on the tracking of wins and losses.

Thanks!