Odds of winning a 17 hand
January 1st, 2023 at 1:21:25 PM
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Dear Wiz,
What is the probability that a player will win a final hand of 17? Assume a 6-deck H17 shoe game. Thanks.
What is the probability that a player will win a final hand of 17? Assume a 6-deck H17 shoe game. Thanks.
"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." -- Winston Churchill
January 1st, 2023 at 1:34:13 PM
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Quote: LuckyDear Wiz,
What is the probability that a player will win a final hand of 17? Assume a 6-deck H17 shoe game. Thanks.
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Edited with additional info.
I get that a 9-8 has a net EV of -0.2945 with a win probability = 0.3002.
A T-7 has a net EV of -0.2960 with a win probability = 0.3001.
An A6-T has a net EV of 0.2933.with a win probability = 0.3001.
A T-4-3 vs 2-A has a net EV of -0.2957 with a win probability = 0.2998.
A 6-6-5 vs 2-A has a net EV of -0.2962 with a win probability = 0.2995.
A T-2-A-A-A-A-A has a net EV of -0.2820 with a win probability = 0.3036. Because the odds of the dealer having a faceup card that is an Ace is significantly reduced. However, it does include T2AAAAA vs 2-6, hands which will almost never occur if the player is playing basic strategy. The EV of T2AAAAA vs 7-A is approximately EV= -0.37947, with a win probability = 0.23523
I realize these are not all the possible hands of 17, but I hope you find them helpful.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jan 1, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
January 1st, 2023 at 1:52:39 PM
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^ There are many 17s one can get to playing basic strategy, some which aren't obvious. So you could get A2AAAAT unless you would normally double A2, and even A2AAAAA9 vs 9/A/T. You can also get to A6 if you split Aces, or things like A42/A5A if you doubled.
Note if you're only trying to win, i.e. a standoff is of no help, refer to Freebet Blackjack for a strategy; for instance hit 17 vs 7.
Note if you're only trying to win, i.e. a standoff is of no help, refer to Freebet Blackjack for a strategy; for instance hit 17 vs 7.
January 1st, 2023 at 5:22:03 PM
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The OP probably meant to ask the probability of a player win with a hard 17 hand. Based on the above posts, we can safely say it is about 30%.
January 1st, 2023 at 10:01:13 PM
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regarding A2AAAAA9. I believe an 8-card hand is probably immaterialQuote: charliepatrick^ There are many 17s one can get to playing basic strategy, some which aren't obvious. So you could get A2AAAAT unless you would normally double A2, and even A2AAAAA9 vs 9/A/T. You can also get to A6 if you split Aces, or things like A42/A5A if you doubled.
Note if you're only trying to win, i.e. a standoff is of no help, refer to Freebet Blackjack for a strategy; for instance hit 17 vs 7.
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