September 19th, 2022 at 2:35:27 PM
permalink

So as not to hijack an existing thread, here's a hypothetical:

A DI practitioner claims to be able to throw the dice and reduce a probability of a seven rolling from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is no point established? How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is a point established? How does the HE change due to a decrease in chance of seven out, an increase in chance of making the point, and an increase in chance of a push?

Feel free to assume either the probability of the other number combinations increase equally, or increase in proportion of their existing probabilities. Ideally, an analyses of both assumptions would be ideal.

Gene

A DI practitioner claims to be able to throw the dice and reduce a probability of a seven rolling from 1 in 6 to 1 in 8.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is no point established? How does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established.

How does that change the HE on a 1 unit pass line bet with no odds if there is a point established? How does the HE change due to a decrease in chance of seven out, an increase in chance of making the point, and an increase in chance of a push?

Feel free to assume either the probability of the other number combinations increase equally, or increase in proportion of their existing probabilities. Ideally, an analyses of both assumptions would be ideal.

Gene

September 19th, 2022 at 2:45:39 PM
permalink

I'll probably get on this for you tomorrow and incorporate my answer into an upcoming, "Ask Mission," article for LCB. I'm afraid I am already in the middle of a project this evening, or I would do it now.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

September 19th, 2022 at 2:48:15 PM
permalink

The house edge doesn't change.

September 19th, 2022 at 2:50:36 PM
permalink

Quote:AlanMendelsonThe house edge doesn't change.

link to original post

If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

September 19th, 2022 at 2:57:42 PM
permalink

I am in no hurry, and appreciate the work people better at this math than I pit in to answering these questions.

Gene

Gene

September 19th, 2022 at 2:57:48 PM
permalink

Quote:Mission146Quote:AlanMendelsonThe house edge doesn't change.

link to original post

If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.

link to original post

The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.

September 19th, 2022 at 3:01:00 PM
permalink

I assume that DIs try to avoid the seven EXCEPT on come out rolls.Quote:GenoDRPhHow does the HE change with a decrease in chance of come out roll wins, but increase in chance of come out roll loses, and increased chance of points being established. link to original post

On a come out, they don’t try to influence, or if they do, they may try to INCREASE the number of sevens.

At least that’s what I would assume.

I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

September 19th, 2022 at 3:04:09 PM
permalink

I don’t think the OP question is the exactly correct to analyze. To be more practical, the question would have the DI attempt to throw more 7s on the come out and less 7s after.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.

The “mechanics” of how this would hypothetically work would be either “keeping the die on axis” or “keeping the die spinning in a correlated manner.” I expect those two “methods” would lead to different math equations because of how you spread the probabilities to other faces.

Would probably be simplest to start with an “on axis” analysis.

Say after the come out, the left die is set with a 3 on top and a 1 and 6 “off axis.” The right die is set with a 3 on top and a 2 and 5 “off axis.” For a die, the “on axis” faces would have X% of showing and “off axis” faces have Y probability of showing, where X > Y.

You can then use above to solve for X and Y where the probability of a 7 is 1/8.

You will then get a probability distribution for the other numbers based on X and Y.

For the come out, the DI would say set 1 and 6 “off axis” on both dice. Apply X and Y to get number distributions and 7 should happen some % more than 1/6.

Anyway, Mission, I hope this makes sense and helps frame the problem in an intelligible way.

Correlated spinning seems more complicated to me. Happy to think through the possible construct if people are interested in analysis.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

September 19th, 2022 at 3:19:56 PM
permalink

Quote:AlanMendelsonQuote:Mission146Quote:AlanMendelsonThe house edge doesn't change.

link to original post

If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.

link to original post

The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.

link to original post

What is the probability, holding 10dJdQdKd, of you drawing to a Royal Flush if I remove all but the Ace of Diamonds from the deck? If the probability has changed, then what is your expected outcome of that draw?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

September 19th, 2022 at 3:23:51 PM
permalink

The house edge is fixed only if the probability of each face of a die showing on top is 1/6. If that probability changes the edge changes.Quote:AlanMendelsonQuote:Mission146Quote:AlanMendelsonThe house edge doesn't change.

link to original post

If the probabilities change, then the House Edge changes. The entire purpose of the DI theory is that the House Edge would change.

link to original post

The house edge is mathematical and fixed. The edge never changes.

link to original post

Simple example, introduce loaded dice that always through a 10. The house edge of playing craps on pass line with those dice is negative infinity. It’s impossible not to hit the pass line for the throws that die is rolled for the coke out and the following roll.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.