August 10th, 2022 at 11:15:07 AM
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This might be totally fallacious - I am not a mathematician!
Suppose that I came into bonus money very easily (like won a contest). The effort to obtain the bonus was nominal; I seek only to collect its stated value.
Say the only requirement was a single playthrough (for simplicity's sake).
Would I not alter basic strategy to consider a push as positive outcome, based on the goals above (single playthrough/even recovery)?
This would include changes like doubling down on 10/10, splitting 10s, basically driving for pushes?
Your thoughts, please!
Suppose that I came into bonus money very easily (like won a contest). The effort to obtain the bonus was nominal; I seek only to collect its stated value.
Say the only requirement was a single playthrough (for simplicity's sake).
Would I not alter basic strategy to consider a push as positive outcome, based on the goals above (single playthrough/even recovery)?
This would include changes like doubling down on 10/10, splitting 10s, basically driving for pushes?
Your thoughts, please!
August 10th, 2022 at 12:48:02 PM
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Take the 94.7% of value you can get at roulette with no variance. 97.3% of value if you can use a single zero wheel. Easy peasy.
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
August 10th, 2022 at 1:09:33 PM
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Unfortunately roulette is not an option, otherwise totally agree.
August 10th, 2022 at 1:19:05 PM
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If you HAVE to play Blackjack then counting would help but if you are looking for a casino game where pushes are common then Pai Gow Poker is your game.
I am not aware of any real basic strategy in Blackjack that actively goes for pushes.
I am not aware of any real basic strategy in Blackjack that actively goes for pushes.
Aut inveniam viam aut faciam
August 10th, 2022 at 1:58:29 PM
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My assumption would be that you should play basic strategy to maximize your potential win but it will add variance.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 10th, 2022 at 2:10:31 PM
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Really the only options are Blackjack and 7/5 Video poker and slots. I could autoplay the slots but the volatility is heartbreaking. I'd rather jockey cards and feel like the universe is reasonably under control. Once again, rife with fallacy, I realize. But optics count and emotions are real.
Here's the gist of my math:
Although the rules vary, it looks like, generally:
Blackjack Outcome Odds
If I treat those both as positive outcomes, I wind up having a positive outcome > 50% of the time.
Remember, pushing is a positive outcome because it satisfies the playthrough requirement.
If I use the above math, the matrix on splitting 10s when dealer shows a 10 favors the split:
In the above I'm 'canceling' the <20 faceoffs because these are standard hands (50.58% in W+P), basically 50/50
Standing (no Split) using the above rationale yields 2:1.
So what this tells me is that splitting on 10s (against a dealer 10) in the W+P paradigm will yield the same results in fewer plays. But will it stabilize overall volatility as a result?
Please, someone smack this out of my hand and tell me my math skills must have been learned from a cracker jack box.
Here's the gist of my math:
Although the rules vary, it looks like, generally:
Blackjack Outcome Odds
W | 42.2% |
---|---|
L | 49.1% |
P | 8.48% |
------------------------ | |
W+P | 50.68% |
If I treat those both as positive outcomes, I wind up having a positive outcome > 50% of the time.
Remember, pushing is a positive outcome because it satisfies the playthrough requirement.
If I use the above math, the matrix on splitting 10s when dealer shows a 10 favors the split:
Player/Dealer | D20 | D<20 |
---|---|---|
H1 20 | P | W |
H1 <20 | L | - |
H2 20 | P | W |
H2 <20 | L | - |
(W+P):L | 4:2 |
In the above I'm 'canceling' the <20 faceoffs because these are standard hands (50.58% in W+P), basically 50/50
Standing (no Split) using the above rationale yields 2:1.
So what this tells me is that splitting on 10s (against a dealer 10) in the W+P paradigm will yield the same results in fewer plays. But will it stabilize overall volatility as a result?
Please, someone smack this out of my hand and tell me my math skills must have been learned from a cracker jack box.
August 10th, 2022 at 3:18:57 PM
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Quote: wildpalmsThis might be totally fallacious - I am not a mathematician!
Suppose that I came into bonus money very easily (like won a contest). The effort to obtain the bonus was nominal; I seek only to collect its stated value.
Say the only requirement was a single playthrough (for simplicity's sake).
Would I not alter basic strategy to consider a push as positive outcome, based on the goals above (single playthrough/even recovery)?
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Pushing (pays 1 for 1) is "ok".
Winning (pays 2 for 1) is "better".
Basic strategy already incorporates this.
Basic strategy suggests the course of action most likely to yield the best probable result for a situation.
You should be using the correct basic strategy for the rules in play. A calculator like https://www.beatingbonuses.com/houseedge.htm can help. (The WoO calculator is good too, but I have a hunch you may value the extra odd rules & CD variants supported by the other.)
I'm inferring that this is a computerized blackjack of some type, based on the other games available for the bonus requirement satisfaction. Because of that, I don't think that splitting 10's or similar "quirky" oddities would ever be an optimal play.
Best of luck
May the cards fall in your favor.
August 10th, 2022 at 4:39:36 PM
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Thanks! I do have a sense of 'winning is better', and this is why I've been doubting myself all along.
I thought that my goals of achieving RTP in as few hands as possible vs Winning made me a motivational outlier that went outside the presumptions that form basic strategy, but sounds like a no.
Interestingly, when I input my specific ruleset into the beatingbonuses calculator, a few of the double downs on 11 (from other basic strategy cards) changed to hits, and I had noticed empirically these were coming to fruition infrequently.
I thought that my goals of achieving RTP in as few hands as possible vs Winning made me a motivational outlier that went outside the presumptions that form basic strategy, but sounds like a no.
Interestingly, when I input my specific ruleset into the beatingbonuses calculator, a few of the double downs on 11 (from other basic strategy cards) changed to hits, and I had noticed empirically these were coming to fruition infrequently.
August 10th, 2022 at 11:15:34 PM
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Quote: DRichMy assumption would be that you should play basic strategy to maximize your potential win but it will add variance.
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Agreed.
I'd suggest sticking with Basic strategy and accept some variance. Mitigate the variance by having a long session at low stakes. Decide for yourself how long you want to bother to play and stake accordingly. Maybe split 10s to get a bit more out there.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 10th, 2022 at 11:38:09 PM
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Quote: DRichMy assumption would be that you should play basic strategy to maximize your potential win but it will add variance.
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Take a look at the spreadsheet used to derive BS and modify it to see what effect some of these marginal decisions have on RTP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCF-Btu5ZCk
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.