Yin
Yin
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May 14th, 2022 at 3:37:17 AM permalink
Thanks Dieter - yes it was a bit of an idiot question tbh (typed quicker than I engaged my brain). Any assistance you can offer on the RoR calc would be greatly appreciated though
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 14th, 2022 at 3:47:57 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

Thanks Dieter - yes it was a bit of an idiot question tbh (typed quicker than I engaged my brain). Any assistance you can offer on the RoR calc would be greatly appreciated though
link to original post



I get very similar answers to those posted using the calculator linked above, repeated here:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/
I do not know the mathematical methods embodied in that calculator.

I am well familiar with typing faster than thinking.
Enjoy the day -D
May the cards fall in your favor.
teliot
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May 14th, 2022 at 5:33:37 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

First off - really appreciative for anyone that takes the time to reply to these threads - so thank you
Funnily enough I have a similar query, but its more about HOW to calculate risk of ruin once I know various factors -

See Theorem 4.1 on page 431 of AAP. You can derive the RoR formula from that.
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Yin
Yin
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May 14th, 2022 at 5:45:56 AM permalink
Really appreciate the assist Teliot - unless the vertsion you are looking at is a previous version, mine shows loss rebate theorem, which in itslef is useful ( thank you) BUT still do not know where I can find, or indeed calculate the Std Dev on the tie bet when a count is in place (which I could then use to calc RoR) .I do have the SD on the Tie bet without a count, but if you affect a count on for example tie-7, triggered at a true 4, the H/A changes from -0.063899 to a player edge of 11.8% - but this would also mean the SD changes....
teliot
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May 14th, 2022 at 5:48:55 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

Really appreciate the assist Teliot - unless the vertsion you are looking at is a previous version, mine shows loss rebate theorem, which in itslef is useful ( thank you) BUT still do not know where I can find, or indeed calculate the Std Dev on the tie bet when a count is in place (which I could then use to calc RoR) .I do have the SD on the Tie bet without a count, but if you affect a count on for example tie-7, triggered at a true 4, the H/A changes from -0.063899 to a player edge of 11.8% - but this would also mean the SD changes....
link to original post

Look at Theorem 4.1 -- it is there *before* the LRT, right where I said it was. I use 4.1 to derive the LRT. You can use 4.1 to derive RoR formula.

As for the SD, you would need to run a simulation to get that. I didn't include the SD in my simulation software. In general, you can just go with the SD for the base bet without counting, That I do include on page 260.
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Yin
Yin
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Thanks for this post from:
teliot
May 14th, 2022 at 6:57:30 AM permalink
I am absolutely laughing my head off as I didnt realise I was speaking to THE Eliot J - that is so funny - and my sincere apologies
Thats fantastic thank you - I didnt understand that you could use the base SD
Great book btw (and I guess am definitely getting my monies worth)
All the best
ksdjdj
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May 14th, 2022 at 2:48:04 PM permalink
Quote: Yin

First off - really appreciative for anyone that takes the time to reply to these threads - so thank you
Funnily enough I have a similar query, but its more about HOW to calculate risk of ruin once I know various factors - you said you had a quick look so i'd be grafetul if you could let me know how you calculated it in that partcular example
If I use the example from the original thread as well as yours - Tie 7 @45-1
I know the average edge is 11.8% according to advanced AP Play (Elliott, 2020)
STD 6.494950 on standard game
Bet Freq 22.4%
Ave Edge 11.8%
Units won 2.65 per 100
If I knew the STD on the Tie-7 bet then I believe I could work out RoR but not available in the book (and beyond my meagre capabilities to do it manually)
In the AAP example he talks about team play, so yes I understand it gets uber tricky if in the example of team play all players place additional units on each others spots at the appropriate count, but lets assume its just one player targeting Tie - 7
The other element I cant quite get my head around is does your calculation assume that no other bets are made (so wonging at the appropriate count) as opposed to also flat betting banker v player..
Thanks in advance for your time
Y
link to original post


Standard Deviation (SD) = 7.0836, when the chance of winning is ~2.4304% and the chance of losing is ~97.5696% (Edge = 11.8%).

Also, I am not good at the "manual calculation" for these sorts of things, instead I used the links below to work out the SD (and related RoR info).

look for the file that says CALCULATE_YOUR_RISK_OF_RUIN.xlsx ^^^
^^^: In the spread sheet make sure the "Max Risk" option is set to 100%.

Return and variance calculator ***
***: Make sure to choose "limited" for the bankroll and pick Baccarat or Roulette (or any game that does not have "Final Bet : Initial Bet Ratio:" and / or "Corr. Between Hands:" as a value you can change/choose).

I used the free/demo version ###
###: To get the SD.

here is the WoO RoR Calculator@@@ (it was posted by someone else earlier in the thread)
@@@: Always good to have many sources, when you don't know how to do this yourself (like me).
Yin
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 14th, 2022 at 10:29:40 PM permalink
That is awesome - reallty appreciate the assist, as well as your time and trouble
Thanks
Yin

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