OMFGTHISYI
OMFGTHISYI
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
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May 12th, 2022 at 3:00:43 PM permalink
Hello all. I need help with something thats a bit out of my depth lol! I have been interested in counting Baccarat side bets, and the UR Way Egalite is of particular interest to me and a few others. However, naturally we know the variance is big and we are wondering what the Risk of Ruin is. Now I'm not aware of any software that exists to calculate this for you based on your bankroll or how many of you are playing etc, like there is for Blackjack with CVCX.

Since there were some very well informed people here on this forum, and how helpful they were to me in my previous post (thank you!), I wondered if anyone would know how to calculate this? Or point me in the right direction to go about finding someone who does?

Thank you.
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 12th, 2022 at 3:36:45 PM permalink
Check out the sister site for several calculators that may be useful.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/

These may not be exactly what you're looking for, but may be a useful start.
May the cards fall in your favor.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Dieter
May 12th, 2022 at 5:20:23 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Check out the sister site for several calculators that may be useful.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/

These may not be exactly what you're looking for, but may be a useful start.
link to original post

The problem is that UR Way Egalite is a combination of many different wagers, and depending on the particular subset the team wants to attack, as well as the location of the cut-card, the wager will have a different EV and VAR for the team, and therefore a different RoR for any given bankroll. There is co-variance as well, as in certain situations competing wagers may be made. On top of that, wagers with extremely high variance are not well-suited to standard RoR calculators, because the Central Limit Theorem is a very weak tool for highly skewed distributions over a limited number of trials.

All of this is to say that the journey from this person's question to a reasonable answer is far from straight-forward, and at the very least, a calculator is effectively useless. If I were to tackle this, it would be by Monte Carlo simulation.

My standard retort to such questions as this user asks is "if you have to ask, then your team is undercapitalized." In other words, the top teams out there just play table-limit wagers and don't concern themselves with RoR, as RoR is essentially meaningless if your bankroll is large enough and table limits are small enough (which they frequently are for side bets).
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 12th, 2022 at 7:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: teliot


My standard retort to such questions as this user asks is "if you have to ask, then your team is undercapitalized."
link to original post



That, I think, is the important takeaway.
You don't need dozens of units, you probably need thousands.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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May 12th, 2022 at 10:09:55 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: teliot


My standard retort to such questions as this user asks is "if you have to ask, then your team is undercapitalized."
link to original post



That, I think, is the important takeaway.
You don't need dozens of units, you probably need thousands.
link to original post


Just for fun, I had a quick look at this for only the "Tie 7"(45-1) and here is what I got (rough figures):

"500 unit bank": 10% chance of bust.
"1000 unit bank": 1% ... bust.
"1500 unit bank": 0.1% ... bust.
"2000 unit bank": 0.01% ... bust.

Note 1: These figures are based on always betting 1 unit per bet (or bust).

Note 2: Used the link here to find out the average edge is 11.8% for a Tie 7, when the cut-card is at 14.

Note 3: I am almost certain my figures will be wrong if you decide to target more than one option (eg if you bet as part of a team)
OMFGTHISYI
OMFGTHISYI
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May 13th, 2022 at 3:06:05 AM permalink
Thank you for the replies everyone. I feared this would not be a straight forward question and of course the fact of the different wagers only muddies the waters even more.
Our bankroll is significant but it all depends what our wagers are going to be. For example, if we are betting 5, then yes, we probably have enough. 25 on the other hand? I'm not so sure.

I suppose, to help me guage better for a plan. I will ask what actually counts as "one unit." Would one unit for team play in UR Way Egalite be the combined sum of each member of the team making the one tie bet (One team member bets 5 on tie 7, so the rest of the team follows suit = one unit), or would one unit just count as the individual unit that each team member makes?

Clearly I'm no math wizard, but based on the information I have read, and the edges when the count is in the players favour, would it be safe to assume that you bring either:
1000 units of your minimum bet, or lets say 2000.
or 1000 units for the minimum bet of each wager being played by the team?
Last edited by: OMFGTHISYI on May 13, 2022
Dieter
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Dieter
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Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
May 13th, 2022 at 3:19:15 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI


I suppose, to help me guage better for a plan. I will ask what actually counts as "one unit." Would one unit for team play in UR Way Egalite be the combined sum of each member of the team making the one tie bet (One team member bets 5 on tie 7, so the rest of the team follows suit = one unit), or would one unit just count as the individual unit that each team member makes?

Clearly I'm no math wizard, but based on the information I have read, and the edges when the count is in the players favour, would it be safe to assume that you bring either:
1000 units of your minimum bet, or lets say 2000.
of 1000 units for the minimum bet of each wager being played by the team?
link to original post



I'm assuming that you have several team members betting the same way on the same hands at the same table.
One unit would be the sum of all those bets.
So, if the plan says 4 players each bet 5 chips on UWE 6, the unit size is 20 chips.
If your bankroll calculations say you need 1000 units, that's 20000 chips.
If your calculations say you need 75 units, that's 1500 chips.

You may need extra chips if you need to play the main game to be eligible for the side bet.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 13th, 2022 at 3:49:20 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

(snip)
or 1000 units for the minimum bet of each wager being played by the team?
link to original post


I think it will be a different figure for each bet you plan on "attacking"(see example below)

Example: if you think / "are happy with" the RoR for a 1000 unit "bank" and the 7-7 tie, then you may need about 5000 units for the 2-2 tie if you want a similar RoR for that option.

Note (Very important): I haven't checked what the average edge and SD for a 2-2 tie is, so this figure is even rougher than my earlier figures for the 7-7 tie.
Yin
Yin
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May 13th, 2022 at 10:59:37 PM permalink
First off - really appreciative for anyone that takes the time to reply to these threads - so thank you
Funnily enough I have a similar query, but its more about HOW to calculate risk of ruin once I know various factors - you said you had a quick look so i'd be grafetul if you could let me know how you calculated it in that partcular example
If I use the example from the original thread as well as yours - Tie 7 @45-1
I know the average edge is 11.8% according to advanced AP Play (Elliott, 2020)
STD 6.494950 on standard game
Bet Freq 22.4%
Ave Edge 11.8%
Units won 2.65 per 100
If I knew the STD on the Tie-7 bet then I believe I could work out RoR but not available in the book (and beyond my meagre capabilities to do it manually)
In the AAP example he talks about team play, so yes I understand it gets uber tricky if in the example of team play all players place additional units on each others spots at the appropriate count, but lets assume its just one player targeting Tie - 7
The other element I cant quite get my head around is does your calculation assume that no other bets are made (so wonging at the appropriate count) as opposed to also flat betting banker v player..
Thanks in advance for your time
Y
Last edited by: Yin on May 13, 2022
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 14th, 2022 at 3:34:11 AM permalink
Quote: Yin


The other element I cant quite get my head around is does your calculation assume that no other bets are made (so wonging at the appropriate count) as opposed to also flat betting banker v player..
Thanks in advance for your time
Y
link to original post



As far as I can see, only the egalite bet of interest is being calculated.
If a banker bet is required for eligibility, additional calculations are required, if your bankroll is small enough to warrant concern about the approximately 1% drain on those wagers.
May the cards fall in your favor.

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