OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
May 12th, 2022 at 3:00:43 PM permalink
Hello all. I need help with something thats a bit out of my depth lol! I have been interested in counting Baccarat side bets, and the UR Way Egalite is of particular interest to me and a few others. However, naturally we know the variance is big and we are wondering what the Risk of Ruin is. Now I'm not aware of any software that exists to calculate this for you based on your bankroll or how many of you are playing etc, like there is for Blackjack with CVCX.

Since there were some very well informed people here on this forum, and how helpful they were to me in my previous post (thank you!), I wondered if anyone would know how to calculate this? Or point me in the right direction to go about finding someone who does?

Thank you.
Dieter
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Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 12th, 2022 at 3:36:45 PM permalink
Check out the sister site for several calculators that may be useful.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/

These may not be exactly what you're looking for, but may be a useful start.
May the cards fall in your favor.
teliot
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May 12th, 2022 at 5:20:23 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Check out the sister site for several calculators that may be useful.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/

These may not be exactly what you're looking for, but may be a useful start.

The problem is that UR Way Egalite is a combination of many different wagers, and depending on the particular subset the team wants to attack, as well as the location of the cut-card, the wager will have a different EV and VAR for the team, and therefore a different RoR for any given bankroll. There is co-variance as well, as in certain situations competing wagers may be made. On top of that, wagers with extremely high variance are not well-suited to standard RoR calculators, because the Central Limit Theorem is a very weak tool for highly skewed distributions over a limited number of trials.

All of this is to say that the journey from this person's question to a reasonable answer is far from straight-forward, and at the very least, a calculator is effectively useless. If I were to tackle this, it would be by Monte Carlo simulation.

My standard retort to such questions as this user asks is "if you have to ask, then your team is undercapitalized." In other words, the top teams out there just play table-limit wagers and don't concern themselves with RoR, as RoR is essentially meaningless if your bankroll is large enough and table limits are small enough (which they frequently are for side bets).
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Dieter
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Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 12th, 2022 at 7:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

My standard retort to such questions as this user asks is "if you have to ask, then your team is undercapitalized."

That, I think, is the important takeaway.
You don't need dozens of units, you probably need thousands.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
May 12th, 2022 at 10:09:55 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: teliot

My standard retort to such questions as this user asks is "if you have to ask, then your team is undercapitalized."

That, I think, is the important takeaway.
You don't need dozens of units, you probably need thousands.

Just for fun, I had a quick look at this for only the "Tie 7"(45-1) and here is what I got (rough figures):

"500 unit bank": 10% chance of bust.
"1000 unit bank": 1% ... bust.
"1500 unit bank": 0.1% ... bust.
"2000 unit bank": 0.01% ... bust.

Note 1: These figures are based on always betting 1 unit per bet (or bust).

Note 2: Used the link here to find out the average edge is 11.8% for a Tie 7, when the cut-card is at 14.

Note 3: I am almost certain my figures will be wrong if you decide to target more than one option (eg if you bet as part of a team)
OMFGTHISYI
• Posts: 11
Joined: Apr 29, 2022
May 13th, 2022 at 3:06:05 AM permalink
Thank you for the replies everyone. I feared this would not be a straight forward question and of course the fact of the different wagers only muddies the waters even more.
Our bankroll is significant but it all depends what our wagers are going to be. For example, if we are betting 5, then yes, we probably have enough. 25 on the other hand? I'm not so sure.

I suppose, to help me guage better for a plan. I will ask what actually counts as "one unit." Would one unit for team play in UR Way Egalite be the combined sum of each member of the team making the one tie bet (One team member bets 5 on tie 7, so the rest of the team follows suit = one unit), or would one unit just count as the individual unit that each team member makes?

Clearly I'm no math wizard, but based on the information I have read, and the edges when the count is in the players favour, would it be safe to assume that you bring either:
1000 units of your minimum bet, or lets say 2000.
or 1000 units for the minimum bet of each wager being played by the team?
Last edited by: OMFGTHISYI on May 13, 2022
Dieter
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May 13th, 2022 at 3:19:15 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

I suppose, to help me guage better for a plan. I will ask what actually counts as "one unit." Would one unit for team play in UR Way Egalite be the combined sum of each member of the team making the one tie bet (One team member bets 5 on tie 7, so the rest of the team follows suit = one unit), or would one unit just count as the individual unit that each team member makes?

Clearly I'm no math wizard, but based on the information I have read, and the edges when the count is in the players favour, would it be safe to assume that you bring either:
1000 units of your minimum bet, or lets say 2000.
of 1000 units for the minimum bet of each wager being played by the team?

I'm assuming that you have several team members betting the same way on the same hands at the same table.
One unit would be the sum of all those bets.
So, if the plan says 4 players each bet 5 chips on UWE 6, the unit size is 20 chips.
If your bankroll calculations say you need 1000 units, that's 20000 chips.
If your calculations say you need 75 units, that's 1500 chips.

You may need extra chips if you need to play the main game to be eligible for the side bet.
May the cards fall in your favor.
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
May 13th, 2022 at 3:49:20 AM permalink
Quote: OMFGTHISYI

(snip)
or 1000 units for the minimum bet of each wager being played by the team?

I think it will be a different figure for each bet you plan on "attacking"(see example below)

Example: if you think / "are happy with" the RoR for a 1000 unit "bank" and the 7-7 tie, then you may need about 5000 units for the 2-2 tie if you want a similar RoR for that option.

Note (Very important): I haven't checked what the average edge and SD for a 2-2 tie is, so this figure is even rougher than my earlier figures for the 7-7 tie.
Yin
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 13, 2022
May 13th, 2022 at 10:59:37 PM permalink
First off - really appreciative for anyone that takes the time to reply to these threads - so thank you
Funnily enough I have a similar query, but its more about HOW to calculate risk of ruin once I know various factors - you said you had a quick look so i'd be grafetul if you could let me know how you calculated it in that partcular example
If I use the example from the original thread as well as yours - Tie 7 @45-1
I know the average edge is 11.8% according to advanced AP Play (Elliott, 2020)
STD 6.494950 on standard game
Bet Freq 22.4%
Ave Edge 11.8%
Units won 2.65 per 100
If I knew the STD on the Tie-7 bet then I believe I could work out RoR but not available in the book (and beyond my meagre capabilities to do it manually)
In the AAP example he talks about team play, so yes I understand it gets uber tricky if in the example of team play all players place additional units on each others spots at the appropriate count, but lets assume its just one player targeting Tie - 7
The other element I cant quite get my head around is does your calculation assume that no other bets are made (so wonging at the appropriate count) as opposed to also flat betting banker v player..
Y
Last edited by: Yin on May 13, 2022
Dieter
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Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 14th, 2022 at 3:34:11 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

The other element I cant quite get my head around is does your calculation assume that no other bets are made (so wonging at the appropriate count) as opposed to also flat betting banker v player..
Y

As far as I can see, only the egalite bet of interest is being calculated.
If a banker bet is required for eligibility, additional calculations are required, if your bankroll is small enough to warrant concern about the approximately 1% drain on those wagers.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Yin
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 13, 2022
May 14th, 2022 at 3:37:17 AM permalink
Thanks Dieter - yes it was a bit of an idiot question tbh (typed quicker than I engaged my brain). Any assistance you can offer on the RoR calc would be greatly appreciated though
Dieter
• Posts: 5710
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
May 14th, 2022 at 3:47:57 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

Thanks Dieter - yes it was a bit of an idiot question tbh (typed quicker than I engaged my brain). Any assistance you can offer on the RoR calc would be greatly appreciated though

I get very similar answers to those posted using the calculator linked above, repeated here:
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/calculator/risk-of-ruin/
I do not know the mathematical methods embodied in that calculator.

I am well familiar with typing faster than thinking.
Enjoy the day -D
May the cards fall in your favor.
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
May 14th, 2022 at 5:33:37 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

First off - really appreciative for anyone that takes the time to reply to these threads - so thank you
Funnily enough I have a similar query, but its more about HOW to calculate risk of ruin once I know various factors -

See Theorem 4.1 on page 431 of AAP. You can derive the RoR formula from that.
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Yin
• Posts: 5
Joined: May 13, 2022
May 14th, 2022 at 5:45:56 AM permalink
Really appreciate the assist Teliot - unless the vertsion you are looking at is a previous version, mine shows loss rebate theorem, which in itslef is useful ( thank you) BUT still do not know where I can find, or indeed calculate the Std Dev on the tie bet when a count is in place (which I could then use to calc RoR) .I do have the SD on the Tie bet without a count, but if you affect a count on for example tie-7, triggered at a true 4, the H/A changes from -0.063899 to a player edge of 11.8% - but this would also mean the SD changes....
teliot
• Posts: 2871
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
May 14th, 2022 at 5:48:55 AM permalink
Quote: Yin

Really appreciate the assist Teliot - unless the vertsion you are looking at is a previous version, mine shows loss rebate theorem, which in itslef is useful ( thank you) BUT still do not know where I can find, or indeed calculate the Std Dev on the tie bet when a count is in place (which I could then use to calc RoR) .I do have the SD on the Tie bet without a count, but if you affect a count on for example tie-7, triggered at a true 4, the H/A changes from -0.063899 to a player edge of 11.8% - but this would also mean the SD changes....

Look at Theorem 4.1 -- it is there *before* the LRT, right where I said it was. I use 4.1 to derive the LRT. You can use 4.1 to derive RoR formula.

As for the SD, you would need to run a simulation to get that. I didn't include the SD in my simulation software. In general, you can just go with the SD for the base bet without counting, That I do include on page 260.
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Yin
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May 14th, 2022 at 6:57:30 AM permalink
I am absolutely laughing my head off as I didnt realise I was speaking to THE Eliot J - that is so funny - and my sincere apologies
Thats fantastic thank you - I didnt understand that you could use the base SD
Great book btw (and I guess am definitely getting my monies worth)
All the best
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
May 14th, 2022 at 2:48:04 PM permalink
Quote: Yin

First off - really appreciative for anyone that takes the time to reply to these threads - so thank you
Funnily enough I have a similar query, but its more about HOW to calculate risk of ruin once I know various factors - you said you had a quick look so i'd be grafetul if you could let me know how you calculated it in that partcular example
If I use the example from the original thread as well as yours - Tie 7 @45-1
I know the average edge is 11.8% according to advanced AP Play (Elliott, 2020)
STD 6.494950 on standard game
Bet Freq 22.4%
Ave Edge 11.8%
Units won 2.65 per 100
If I knew the STD on the Tie-7 bet then I believe I could work out RoR but not available in the book (and beyond my meagre capabilities to do it manually)
In the AAP example he talks about team play, so yes I understand it gets uber tricky if in the example of team play all players place additional units on each others spots at the appropriate count, but lets assume its just one player targeting Tie - 7
The other element I cant quite get my head around is does your calculation assume that no other bets are made (so wonging at the appropriate count) as opposed to also flat betting banker v player..
Y

Standard Deviation (SD) = 7.0836, when the chance of winning is ~2.4304% and the chance of losing is ~97.5696% (Edge = 11.8%).

Also, I am not good at the "manual calculation" for these sorts of things, instead I used the links below to work out the SD (and related RoR info).

look for the file that says CALCULATE_YOUR_RISK_OF_RUIN.xlsx ^^^
^^^: In the spread sheet make sure the "Max Risk" option is set to 100%.

Return and variance calculator ***
***: Make sure to choose "limited" for the bankroll and pick Baccarat or Roulette (or any game that does not have "Final Bet : Initial Bet Ratio:" and / or "Corr. Between Hands:" as a value you can change/choose).

I used the free/demo version ###
###: To get the SD.

here is the WoO RoR Calculator@@@ (it was posted by someone else earlier in the thread)
@@@: Always good to have many sources, when you don't know how to do this yourself (like me).
Yin