Choirboy
Choirboy
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 8:08:33 AM permalink
My local card room runs a 'High Hand' promo hourly. You must have aces full or better to qualify. In Holdem, both hole cards must play. Omaha 08 is also eligible for this promotion but must qualify using only the flop.

My question is: Which game has the better percentage of hitting a qualifying hand based on the above information (not considering number of hands played per hour or any other factors)?

Edit: All the games are all fixed limit or 2-100 spread limit. I'm looking for someone that can is skilled enough to give me an actual percentage (like 51.5% omaha vs. 48.5% holdem), we've discussed the topic to death at the tables and believe its close but would like know the numbers.
Last edited by: Choirboy on Jul 19, 2021
Mission146
Mission146
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July 19th, 2021 at 8:25:54 AM permalink
Quote: Choirboy

My local card room runs a 'High Hand' promo hourly. You must have aces full or better to qualify. In Holdem, both hole cards must play. Omaha 08 is also eligible for this promotion but must qualify using only the flop.

My question is: Which game has the better percentage of hitting a qualifying hand based on the above information (not considering number of hands played per hour or any other factors)?



If I am understanding this correctly, all else equal, you get seven cards either way but one game requires two to be part of the hand and the other game requires three specific cards to be part of the hand.

Also THE and minimum aces full using your hole cards. You wouldn’t generally fold pairs, and especially not aces…so that leaves matching a pair and single card on the board with your hand containing Ax, which is relatively low in terms of folding percentage…

I guess there’s the matter of quads with your hand ALSO containing a better kicker than anything on the board, as well as the card that matches the trips on the board, but I’d think the probability of that is negligible and would involve a lot of aces besides.

What percentage of hands do you see in Omaha 8? Does it have a high rate of limps? I assume most pairs in your hand wouldn’t fold, but could be wrong. (Actually, are low pairs considered bad?)

Do they have a Limit THE game there? Does that game qualify, if so. Depending on the number of players, you could just load a table with confederates and agree to limp to flops with all justifiable hands if your hourly expectation would justify it compared to the rake.

DISCLAIMER: This post contains opinion, speculation and theory. While I have played poker cash games, I have never personally done so in pursuit of a particular jackpot.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 8:54:16 AM permalink
Maybe this is naive, but simplifying to playing all the same rate of seeing flops in Omaha to rivers in Holdem, then I think its easier in Hold’em because:

Omaha you can choose 2 from 4 from your hand to play so 6 ways. Holdem you can choose 3 from 5 on the board to play so 10 ways.

At Mission, playing smart you should see less Omaha flops than Holdem flops. But the comparison is really flop to River. And I’m not sure how much it will matter because you are likely starting with cards more likely to see flops and rivers ri get Aces full or better
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 9:38:14 AM permalink
Without doing any math, I am certain the Omaha 8 game has higher odds of winning the 'Aces Full or Better High Hand bonus.'

In Omaha 8, you are dealt 4 hole cards and must make a hand with exactly 2 hole cards and 3 common (Or board) cards.

In Holdem, this HIgh Hand bonus requires you to make a hand with two (Both) hole cards and three common cards.

So, on basic principles, you are 6x times likely to make a full house or better at Omaha 8 then in Hold'em (with both hole cards.) That is because 4 hole cards in hold'em are equivalent to 6 different combinations of 2 hole cards in Hold'em.
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unJon
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 9:40:35 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Without doing any math, I am certain the Omaha 8 game has higher odds of winning the 'Aces Full or Better High Hand bonus.'

In Omaha 8, you are dealt 4 hole cards and must make a hand with exactly 2 hole cards and 3 common (Or board) cards.

In Holdem, this HIgh Hand bonus requires you to make a hand with two (Both) hole cards and three common cards.

So, on basic principles, you are 6x times likely to make a full house or better at Omaha 8 then in Hold'em (with both hole cards.) That is because 4 hole cards in hold'em are equivalent to 6 different combinations of 2 hole cards in Hold'em.

Did you read the part where you have to flop it in Omaha??
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
gordonm888
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 11:49:46 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Did you read the part where you have to flop it in Omaha??



No, my bad. Thanks for pointing that out to me.

If you must flop the High Hand in Omaha to win the bonus, you are trying to make an Aces-up FH or better from 7 cards (4 hole cards and 3 board cards) in which the three flop cards must be used in the hand. That is a more difficult requirement than the Hold'em version, which only requires the two hole cards to be used out of a total of seven cards.

Therefore, the hold'em game version of the High Hand Bonus offers you a higher probability of winning.

The hold'em game is more likely than the Omaha game to make the High Hand Bonus by approximately 1.667X; that is by a ratio that is = c(5,3)/c(4,2).
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Jul 19, 2021
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
unJon
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Mission146
July 19th, 2021 at 12:07:44 PM permalink
Agree. Matches my reasoning.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Mission146
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July 19th, 2021 at 12:35:21 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Agree. Matches my reasoning.



We’re unanimous so far.

I know nothing of Omaha 8 strategy, so the only variable for me is if there was an inordinate amount of limping to flops.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
gordonm888
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July 19th, 2021 at 6:53:52 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

We’re unanimous so far.

I know nothing of Omaha 8 strategy, so the only variable for me is if there was an inordinate amount of limping to flops.



Omaha 8 is a hi-lo game where the low hand must be 8-high or lower to split the pot. In my experience, many players do tend to limp preflop, because you can win two ways (high or low) and your hand prospects are ambiguous until you see a flop. High stakes games may be different however.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Choirboy
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Mission146
July 20th, 2021 at 7:26:04 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

No, my bad. Thanks for pointing that out to me.

If you must flop the High Hand in Omaha to win the bonus, you are trying to make an Aces-up FH or better from 7 cards (4 hole cards and 3 board cards) in which the three flop cards must be used in the hand. That is a more difficult requirement than the Hold'em version, which only requires the two hole cards to be used out of a total of seven cards.

Therefore, the hold'em game version of the High Hand Bonus offers you a higher probability of winning.

The hold'em game is more likely than the Omaha game to make the High Hand Bonus by approximately 1.667X; that is by a ratio that is = c(5,3)/c(4,2).



This is the kind of mathematical answer that I am looking for however it diifers from thoughts on how the math should be done. Please show me where I'm going wrong.

In both games you're playing the best 5 card hand out of 7 cards, Hold'em 2 cards in your hand and 5 cards on the board, Omaha 4 cards in hand and 3 on the flop. I would think that running a simulation or a computer program you would get an equal percentage of hands that were aces full or better. At that point the games would be equal in the possibility of qualifying for the high hand promotion.

Now, add in to it the fact that both cards hole cards must play in Hold'em, a simulation would have to be run using only 6 cards to make an aces full or better hand to figure it using only one hole card and that number deducted from a 7 card aces full or better count to determine the percentage of advantage that actually goes to the Omaha game. Or, possibly the number of games in which one or both hole cards do not play would be slightly more than 1 out of 7 or 14.28%.

Now, I've never considered myself very good at this so I welcome any correction.

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