Progressive Jackpot Win Odds

Quote: unJon

You keep confusing (A) doubling the stakes means increasing the chance with (B) doubling the stakes means doubling the chances.

A and B are not the same statement.

I know that. I'm trying to get opinions.

I want to hear peoples' views on how the win chances varying with stake

Quote: beccysurbo

I know that. I'm trying to get opinions.

I want to hear peoples' views on how the win chances varying with stake

So you are looking for opinions not facts? Plenty of facts were given here. I'm sure plenty of theories and opinions will follow.

Quote: beccysurbo

I know that. I'm trying to get opinions.

I want to hear peoples' views on how the win chances varying with stake

It depends on the game, which is basically what both DRich and Axel have said, and if there’s any disagreement at all, it’s just over which case is more likely. Doesn’t seem to me that they fundamentally disagree and Axel’s answer (apologies if I’m wrong) seems to mostly look at must-hits.

Suppose you were talking about a must-hit machine. Some must-hit machines, when a given jackpot is triggered, pick a new amount at which the jackpot will be triggered.

If the amount selected is $497.55, and suppose the meter is at $489.55, then the probability of hitting the jackpot is 0 regardless of your bet...unless there is something that can also just randomly trigger it.

Suppose that it’s at $497.53 and the meter moves $0.01 for every $5 bet. Now the probability of hitting it would be 0 with a $5 bet, but 100% with a $10 bet.

In any case, with a machine like that, it’s not twice as likely necessarily, but you’ll get there in half the time, therefore half the spins, which makes it TECHNICALLY twice as likely on a per spin basis.

—

Looking at other types of progressives that can be hit on multiple bet levels, it depends on what event triggers the progressive and the frequency of said event. Suppose it’s collecting a particular scatter symbol...it would be very easy with a sample size of 1,000 spins or so to determine whether or not that symbol is coming up twice as frequently—which (more or less) it would need to be for the jackpot to be twice as likely.

I say more-or-less because you could technically significantly adjust the frequency on one (or more) individual reels and still end up with an event 2x as likely overall, but again, this could be determined with even a reasonable sample size of spins.

For an example that is not a matter of opinion, you can look at Keno games. Many Keno games you can start hitting the jackpot at a $0.50 bet, but the max bet is more than that. With Keno, max betting as opposed to $.50 wouldn’t change the probability of hitting the jackpot at all whatsoever if it’s strictly based on getting a certain amount of numbers out of x numbers on the initial draw, say 9/10, 8/8, 7/7...whatever.

So, absent the paytable changing somewhere else (usually not the case) max betting actually means a worse RTP because the jackpot is less relative to the bet amount.

Some slot games also operate basically the same way. One example of which is an eight-line based game, such as Bell Fever. I can’t say the probability of hitting the jackpot doesn’t increase with higher bets at all, but it certainly doesn’t increase in a directly proportional way to the bet amount. Most advantageous situations on those are because someone was max betting and drove the meter up, so now you can snap it off at a minimum bet.

Quote: beccysurbo

Ahh, so this is where I start to get confused.

How do I reconcile that statement with the game rules that state 'win chance correlates positively with bet size'?

And since posting my question I found this forum post of yours: /forum/gambling/slots/34870-progressive-jackpot-odds-when-the-denomination-doesnt-affect-the-jp-size/#post774028

Am I correct in thinking that some progressives double your win chance with double stake, and some don't? Are there any rules of thumb for classifying those?

“Correlates positively,” is different than, “Correlates perfectly,” or, “Correlates proportionally.”

Quote: beccysurbo

...Put in other words, if I spin 2 x $1, is that the same chance of winning the progressive as 1 x $2?

Yes.

A few years ago I was playing a Flaming Sevens game and lined up three flaming sevens for a $500 win on a $1.35 bet. A week or so later I lined up the same three flaming sevens on a .45 cent wager and got nothing. I called for service, thinking the machine was broken, but while waiting, I read the paytable. It turned out bets of .45 only qualified certain winning payoffs and you had to be betting $1.35 or more to win the Flaming Sevens feature. While the information was right in front of me, it really soured me on the game.

Quote: DRich

Axel is a very smart man and a professional gambler so I tend to believe most of what he says.

That's a nice compliment, especially coming from a guy like you.

I'm a bit confused since I agree with you on this and everything else you have ever said about slots, or gambling in general for that matter. Can someone point out where our statements conflicted, perhaps I just didn't explain my position correctly.

It all seems fairly simple to me. It's as if the OP has a hidden agenda.

Quote: Mission146

It depends on the game, which is basically what both DRich and Axel have said, and if there’s any disagreement at all, it’s just over which case is more likely. Doesn’t seem to me that they fundamentally disagree and Axel’s answer (apologies if I’m wrong) seems to mostly look at must-hits.

Suppose you were talking about a must-hit machine. Some must-hit machines, when a given jackpot is triggered, pick a new amount at which the jackpot will be triggered.

If the amount selected is $497.55, and suppose the meter is at $489.55, then the probability of hitting the jackpot is 0 regardless of your bet...unless there is something that can also just randomly trigger it.

Suppose that it’s at $497.53 and the meter moves $0.01 for every $5 bet. Now the probability of hitting it would be 0 with a $5 bet, but 100% with a $10 bet.

In any case, with a machine like that, it’s not twice as likely necessarily, but you’ll get there in half the time, therefore half the spins, which makes it TECHNICALLY twice as likely on a per spin basis.

—

Looking at other types of progressives that can be hit on multiple bet levels, it depends on what event triggers the progressive and the frequency of said event. Suppose it’s collecting a particular scatter symbol...it would be very easy with a sample size of 1,000 spins or so to determine whether or not that symbol is coming up twice as frequently—which (more or less) it would need to be for the jackpot to be twice as likely.

I say more-or-less because you could technically significantly adjust the frequency on one (or more) individual reels and still end up with an event 2x as likely overall, but again, this could be determined with even a reasonable sample size of spins.

For an example that is not a matter of opinion, you can look at Keno games. Many Keno games you can start hitting the jackpot at a $0.50 bet, but the max bet is more than that. With Keno, max betting as opposed to $.50 wouldn’t change the probability of hitting the jackpot at all whatsoever if it’s strictly based on getting a certain amount of numbers out of x numbers on the initial draw, say 9/10, 8/8, 7/7...whatever.

So, absent the paytable changing somewhere else (usually not the case) max betting actually means a worse RTP because the jackpot is less relative to the bet amount.

Some slot games also operate basically the same way. One example of which is an eight-line based game, such as Bell Fever. I can’t say the probability of hitting the jackpot doesn’t increase with higher bets at all, but it certainly doesn’t increase in a directly proportional way to the bet amount. Most advantageous situations on those are because someone was max betting and drove the meter up, so now you can snap it off at a minimum bet.

You found your next article.

Quote: beccysurbo

Hi there,

I'm getting super curious about progressive jackpot win odds. If I double my stake, am I twice as likely to win?

Are there that many machines with progressives where you can win the progressive by betting any amount other than the maximum?

There's an Urban Legend about someone who lost a Megabucks jackpot because he let his girlfriend play the machine while he stepped away for a minute, and she was only putting in $1 per pull. In fact, there is one documented instance where somebody did lose a progressive because he didn't put in the max bet.

I remember posting here a few years ago about machines where the "last" credit didn't increase the payouts for the non-jackpot values, but only activated the progressive. To be honest, I'm not sure if any of those exist any more.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Are there that many machines with progressives where you can win the progressive by betting any amount other than the maximum?

It used to be more common on older games. (IMO) This is aside from whether they were any good for AP.