billryan
billryan 
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May 10th, 2020 at 7:26:48 PM permalink
In over 50 years of casually following horses, I don't know a single person who claims to be ahead. My friends Uncle won or placed in several NYRA handicapping contests but insisted no one could beat the races.
redietz
redietz
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May 10th, 2020 at 9:07:22 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

it's kind of amusing to me
the Bill Benter and Alan Woods syndicate make almost $1 billion betting Hong Kong racing
when Alan Woods died his estate was valued at $900 million, a large part of it from beating racing and subsequent appreciation

it is almost surely the most spectacular accomplishment in the history of gambling

and a large % of the public thinks horseplayers are pathetic losers who always die broke




I know nothing about horse racing, but I know some people who do.

First of all, before I get to the claims Axelwolf addressed above:

Hong Kong racing is very, very different from American racing. No drugs, if your horses underperform you are called before a board, and so on. It's a very transparent, monitored affair, so "pure handicapping" can work, as opposed to the muck and the mire of American racing where you better figure out who is using what drugs and who is betting their own horses. In other words, in Hong Kong you can't stiff horses and you can't use races as workouts to set up a better price down the road. You better run to form, or you're gonna get hell. And jockeys are held to a higher, cleaner standard. The bumping and grinding of some American jockeys would not (and have not been) tolerated.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
redietz
redietz
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May 10th, 2020 at 9:13:25 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I just fear that there might be something more to all this that we/you are missing. I noticed you said account, as in a singular account. It's nice to know he can get all that done on one account without any scrutiny. He's been Cashing Out along the way I hope(?)

If you have proof that over 802 events he's running at 15 to 20% positive without some monster scores that could skew the results. And I think you mentioned all that doesn't even include rebates bonuses and other incentives? I think if I were you, I would ask if you can get in on the gig, if so, I would plan on quitting your day job scale up the bets and spread across multiple books and be aggressive on whatever bonuses, rebates and Kickbacks you can get.



I know nothing about horse racing. Having said that, let me address what was revealed when Betfair was called into court some years back and had to share their results records, it may have been for a year. If anybody wants to look it up -- may take more than a google search -- please do and report back.

Betfair had between two million and three million accounts. Do not know the exact figure. The year in question, the number of accounts that made six digits or more --

Drum roll, please....

Fewer than a dozen.

So bear that in mind.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 10th, 2020 at 9:23:30 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

I know nothing about horse racing. Having said that, let me address what was revealed when Betfair was called into court some years back and had to share their results records, it may have been for a year. If anybody wants to look it up -- may take more than a google search -- please do and report back.

Betfair had between two million and three million accounts. Do not know the exact figure. The year in question, the number of accounts that made six digits or more --

Drum roll, please....

Fewer than a dozen.

So bear that in mind.

I'm not buying what this guy is being sold. I'm just saying, if it's in fact true that this guy's friend is getting a 15% to 20% profit over 802 events, then I wouldn't hesitate jumping in.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 11th, 2020 at 1:18:25 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

In over 50 years of casually following horses, I don't know a single person who claims to be ahead. My friends Uncle won or placed in several NYRA handicapping contests but insisted no one could beat the races.





your uncle was dead wrong
here you go - from the New York Times - Ernie Dahlman betting New York racing
at the time of the article, 2001, he was averaging making about $700K per year - he retired a wealthy man

there are many others who have won but made much less

unlike craps and baccarat players when they win they don't brag - they know no one will believe them so what's the point - the OP is the exception

I would guess about 1 - 2% show a long term profit - similar to the % of those who beat machines and blackjack

Ernie Dahlman used to post regularly at paceadvantage.com - that forum has been around a long time - several posters there knew him personally





right now a high % of those who win are getting rebates from overseas books - it's a much better deal than Betfair for various reasons
rebates can reduce the impact of the takeout by about 20% to as much as 35% - it becomes a whole different ballgame



btw: paceadvantage.com is a huge horse racing forum that's been around a long time and has probably at least 100 times as many posts as here
there are many intelligent and very knowledgeable posters there
of course, there is some crap there like any forum, but anybody who really wanted to learn about racing could learn a lot there





https://www.nytimes.com/2001/06/03/magazine/the-wizard-of-odds.html
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 11, 2020
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
billryan
billryan 
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May 11th, 2020 at 6:45:57 AM permalink
Making money by exploiting rebates doesn't equate to beating the horses. , in my opinion. Same as someone who uses multiple cards to collect multiple free play amounts isn't beating the slot machines.
I've no doubt a few people can exploit rebates and sign up bonuses but that's not being a successful handicapper. Someone who makes a million dollars in bets and collects more than a million dollars in winnings is a successful handicapper. Someone who loses $50,000 but gets $80,000 back in rebates is not.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 11th, 2020 at 9:57:13 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Making money by exploiting rebates doesn't equate to beating the horses. , in my opinion. Same as someone who uses multiple cards to collect multiple free play amounts isn't beating the slot machines.
I've no doubt a few people can exploit rebates and sign up bonuses but that's not being a successful handicapper. Someone who makes a million dollars in bets and collects more than a million dollars in winnings is a successful handicapper. Someone who loses $50,000 but gets $80,000 back in rebates is not.




Bill, you have a right to your opinion but I don't share it
the biggest rebates I know about (that you can get on all your bets) is 7%
unless they are only betting Win, Place, Show, which is very unlikely they are going up against a takeout that averages about 22%
the takeout on the exotics goes up to 28%
𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐛𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝟏𝟓% 𝐭𝐨 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭
to me this counts as beating racing, to you no - that's okay
also, there are several who have beaten racing not with rebates but with huge scores from the extreme exotics - double triple, superfecta, Pick 6, etc.
there have been some payouts of around a million, many in the hundreds of thousands directly from the parimutuel pools, not from rebate books
for many those big scores have put them ahead for their lifetime
it may have been mostly luck, nobody can say, but to me it still counts - I can't say that they didn't beat racing - that wouldn't be fair to them
coincidence or not, it just so happens that many who have hit for big scores are well known and respected handicappers which suggests that it was skill, not luck, that led them to their big scores


anyway, Good Luck on your bets if we are so lucky to have Triple Crown series races this year - you're a good guy whose opinion I respect and I don't really want to debate or argue with you
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
billryan
billryan 
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May 11th, 2020 at 10:15:28 AM permalink
I'll just mention my friends' uncle said this around 1977 and I don't think the super exotic bets were then in play. He bet a lot of trifectas and at the time I think they had two Daily Doubles.
redietz
redietz
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May 11th, 2020 at 11:32:38 AM permalink
If you're making money, then you're making money. Again, I know nothing about horse racing, but:

American racing, at least 10 years ago, featured about a dozen people called collectively (and unimaginatively) "the whales." They had negotiated rebates high enough that they were able to make money on a consistent basis betting huge amounts and collecting their rebates.

They were all using programs that bet for them based on pool distributions. All together, they represented a large portion of the total pools, probably around 30%. Unfortunately, as American racing shrank, and they were in fact competing against each other, they began spinning their collective wheels. Not sure how many, or how many of the original dozen or so, are still involved.

Everything became tighter and tougher.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
tapit2001
tapit2001
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May 11th, 2020 at 2:03:04 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not buying what this guy is being sold. I'm just saying, if it's in fact true that this guy's friend is getting a 15% to 20% profit over 802 events, then I wouldn't hesitate jumping in.



He made 46% on 802 races, not 15-20%. He said that he thought his edge was probably 15-20% but that he may have gotten lucky to have the 46% return. But he's really not sure. The reason he's not sure what his edge is is because he's made some tweaks to his system. And since he made the tweaks, his results have skyrocketed. He thinks his edge may in fact be 30-40%. That was why he asked Alan the question. He was wondering how significant it was that he made 46% over 6 months, betting 800 races. He obviously knows he has a big edge. But he just doesn't know how big.

I know the guy. I've seen his results. The bad news is that he already has a bankroll and he's not taking any investors. I asked him if he would consider posting an occasional pick on this board just for fun to show off a little bit. He said he would think about it. This same guy used to post on Sharp Sports Betting back around 2004-2006. He would post around 200-300 best a year. He showed a profit every year. I can't remember the exact numbers because it was a long time ago. But from what I remember, the first year his profit was around 14%, the next year it was around 9% and the third year it was around 5%. He didn't put in as many picks the last couple of years. Everyone on the site made money off his picks.

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