Allan99
Allan99
Joined: Mar 28, 2016
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May 9th, 2020 at 2:22:34 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

is he betting online? If so, I would ask that he show me all of his account history while logged on. If he's not willing to do that, I would automatically assume he is full of it.

Going forward, ask him to tell you what he's going to bet prior to the race.

I have friends that think they can beat craps with a bunch of mumbo-jumbo voodoo stuff and they actually believe in it themselves, especially when they are on a good run. whenever they bust out their bankroll they realize they didn't stay hydrated enough and adjust for that until they go on a good run and now suddenly it works. Rinse and repeat.



My friend has shown me screen shots of his results. He also has offered for me to go online and log into his account.

I have known my friend for 26.5 years and he is a total stand up guy. Neither of us is trying to tout any of it.

Even with his fantastic results I am still personally shaking my head how he could truly have such a big edge and especially considering that includes having to overcome the negative 16 percent take out. Because there have been many tens of thousands of horse players who have tried to figure this game out for many years and somehow my friend could literally be the best or close to the best handicapper of all time?

The way I look at it, time will tell as his new results get added to his old results and the reality is made clearer.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 10th, 2020 at 2:15:42 AM permalink
please delete
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 10th, 2020 at 5:15:04 AM permalink
Quote: Allan99

My friend has shown me screen shots of his results. He also has offered for me to go online and log into his account.

I have known my friend for 26.5 years and he is a total stand up guy. Neither of us is trying to tout any of it.

Even with his fantastic results I am still personally shaking my head how he could truly have such a big edge and especially considering that includes having to overcome the negative 16 percent take out. Because there have been many tens of thousands of horse players who have tried to figure this game out for many years and somehow my friend could literally be the best or close to the best handicapper of all time?

The way I look at it, time will tell as his new results get added to his old results and the reality is made clearer.


I just fear that there might be something more to all this that we/you are missing. I noticed you said account, as in a singular account. It's nice to know he can get all that done on one account without any scrutiny. He's been Cashing Out along the way I hope(?)

If you have proof that over 802 events he's running at 15 to 20% positive without some monster scores that could skew the results. And I think you mentioned all that doesn't even include rebates bonuses and other incentives? I think if I were you, I would ask if you can get in on the gig, if so, I would plan on quitting your day job scale up the bets and spread across multiple books and be aggressive on whatever bonuses, rebates and Kickbacks you can get.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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May 10th, 2020 at 7:26:05 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



If you have proof that over 802 events he's running at 15 to 20% positive without some monster scores that could skew the results. And I think you mentioned all that doesn't even include rebates bonuses and other incentives? I think if I were you, I would ask if you can get in on the gig, if so, I would plan on quitting your day job scale up the bets and spread across multiple books and be aggressive on whatever bonuses, rebates and Kickbacks you can get.



Axel, let's say he is legit. That he is somehow able to make +EV bets reliably. Once you were confident in his abilities.....

Using all your tricks (multiple accounts, rebates, etc...), how much could you make and really get paid on reliably? More or less than a million a year?
SM777
SM777
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May 10th, 2020 at 8:00:48 AM permalink
Of course not. The takeout in horse racing makes it impossible to beat long term.
unJon
unJon 
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May 10th, 2020 at 8:38:24 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

Of course not. The takeout in horse racing makes it impossible to beat long term.



What about those guys that beat it?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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May 10th, 2020 at 12:23:18 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

What about those guys that beat it?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code



Great read. I wish it mentioned the EV they had. I would assume that on many, if not most races, there would be no bet that would exceed the 17% house take. I'm wondering how many races actually have a true +EV horse? Ans once they bet on it, the odds on it go down, since it was a pari-mutual betting. Sounds believable, and fishy at the same time.....
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
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May 10th, 2020 at 1:33:39 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

What about those guys that beat it?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code


I remember reading this story a year ago. So the obvious question is whether this friend is a data-mining AI guru who is doing something similar?
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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Thanks for this post from:
TumblingBones
May 10th, 2020 at 1:44:07 PM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

I remember reading this story a year ago. So the obvious question is this whether this friend is a data-mining AI guru who is doing something similar?



that was a long time ago - Hong Kong racing - gigantic pools and huge fields - at least before covid they were averaging $15 million bet per race

I've read several accounts of this and I don't believe it can be done today

why?

when the Benter and Alan Woods syndicate began their adventure the Asian racetrack managers were so happy with their whales that they provided them with proprietary info

thru the computers they informed them of how much the extreme exotic (trifecta, superfecta, triple trio, etc.) combinations on every single horse would pay, or they gave them info on how much was bet on each horse in each of these pools and Benter's computers then did the calculations

this is when I believe the syndicate was performing at it best - when they had this info


they could then compare those payouts with their own estimated payouts based on the win odds and their own adjustments of those odds

this way they could find huge overlays

later, for some reason the Asians soured on their whales and refused to funnel them this info

right now, in racing, nobody can get this very valuable info

nobody knows how much the superfecta combo of the 1, 5, 8 and 14 will pay

you can only make a rough guess based on the win odds

and those guesses are often way, way, off

also, the OP stated that his friend was just betting to Win and Place which is a whole different ball of wax

he would have to have greatly superior predictive abilities to have a 15 - 20% edge

a great many are using computers today and nobody, I repeat nobody, is claiming an edge anywhere near that large

the OP stated that his friend was betting between $80 and $600
its possible with a hundred bets left he was breaking even or a little down and that's when he started betting $600 and he had a nice run

no, I can't believe anybody can get a 15-20% edge betting racing - it would have to be painstakingly documented for me to believe it







this is yet another example of people making outrageous unsubstantiated claims and getting people excited for no reason
possibly trolling or possibly his friend is just badly overestimating his own abilities and his own likely future performance
this is an everyday occurrence on gambling boards - it never ends


based on the view count on various boards it looks like thousands of people believe MDawg's outrageous claims
a brand new MDawg copycat will surely be coming soon to several boards and making people believe that they too can pretty easily have phenomenal success at some negative expectancy game
Last edited by: lilredrooster on May 10, 2020
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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May 10th, 2020 at 3:57:13 PM permalink
it's kind of amusing to me
the Bill Benter and Alan Woods syndicate make almost $1 billion betting Hong Kong racing
when Alan Woods died his estate was valued at $900 million, a large part of it from beating racing and subsequent appreciation

it is almost surely the most spectacular accomplishment in the history of gambling

and a large % of the public thinks horseplayers are pathetic losers who always die broke
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ

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