jedijon
Joined: Mar 14, 2016
• Posts: 14
April 27th, 2020 at 2:13:29 AM permalink
I have found the below question on the web with solution which I fully understand, all good.

But I want to change the part below which reads "Resignations are equally likely among all employees" to "60% of resignations are from women for all stores", effectively adding a new branch to the decision tree.

Stores A, B and C have 50, 75 and 100 employees respectively. and respectively, 50%, 60% and 70% of the employees are women. """Resignations are equally likely among all employees""", regardless of sex. One employee resigns and this is a woman. What is the probability that she works in store A?
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
• Posts: 14460
April 27th, 2020 at 4:45:48 AM permalink
Sorry, you are two weeks too late. You've missed out on the night people gather in cemetaries and drunkenly sing songs from the Bawdy Songbook of the Good Reverend Bayes while facing Islington.

As to the actual problem presented, it, as with everything else about Bayes Theorem, will forever be a mystery to me.
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
• Posts: 1863
April 27th, 2020 at 11:23:41 AM permalink
Quote: jedijon

I have found the below question on the web with solution which I fully understand, all good.

But I want to change the part below which reads "Resignations are equally likely among all employees" to "60% of resignations are from women for all stores", effectively adding a new branch to the decision tree.

Stores A, B and C have 50, 75 and 100 employees respectively. and respectively, 50%, 60% and 70% of the employees are women. """Resignations are equally likely among all employees""", regardless of sex. One employee resigns and this is a woman. What is the probability that she works in store A?

Store A: 25 women; 15 quit.
Store B: 45 women; 27 quit.
Store C: 70 women; 42 quit.

Given a woman quits the probabilities are:

A: 15/84
B: 27/84
C: 42/84

I did the above in my head so apologies if I made an arithmetic error.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.