Poll
![]() | 21 votes (45.65%) | ||
![]() | 14 votes (30.43%) | ||
![]() | 6 votes (13.04%) | ||
![]() | 3 votes (6.52%) | ||
![]() | 12 votes (26.08%) | ||
![]() | 3 votes (6.52%) | ||
![]() | 6 votes (13.04%) | ||
![]() | 5 votes (10.86%) | ||
![]() | 12 votes (26.08%) | ||
![]() | 10 votes (21.73%) |
46 members have voted
June 16th, 2025 at 11:15:17 AM
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Quote: ThatDonGuy
To 100 places, I get:
0.14015 01597 77671 70675 03301 99764 58363 24852 96210 37282 37474 09380 11959 51720 40943 79197 71682 53488 94282 64038
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I agree.
June 26th, 2025 at 6:48:47 PM
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I've done a quick spreadsheet which looks at all the permutaions of 6-13 (i.e. 8*8*8*8) and assumes there are only 4 of each rank. However a trick I've used (see 6 6 7 6 where there's a tie) is to divide the 96 ways to get it, so each of the winners have 48 wins each. This is why the total includes 2/3 as there can be 3-way ties.
I haven't checked anything but it shouldn't take long to knock up a similar spreadsheet.

I haven't checked anything but it shouldn't take long to knock up a similar spreadsheet.

June 26th, 2025 at 8:43:55 PM
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Quote: charliepatrickI've done a quick spreadsheet
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We're pretty close, but not quite in agreement. Probably something to do with the ties. My figures are the page I linked to.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 27th, 2025 at 4:52:23 AM
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I'm pretty sure the error is on my end, but I can't find it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
June 27th, 2025 at 5:56:58 AM
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I found it. Stupid mistake, as usual. I definitely owe you a beer for this one.
Updated table.
Updated table.
Winner | Pays | Probability | Return |
---|---|---|---|
8 | 11 | 0.078328 | -0.060067 |
9 | 4.5 | 0.163787 | -0.099172 |
10 | 2.2 | 0.293023 | -0.062326 |
11 | 1 | 0.464862 | -0.070276 |
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)