Coronavirus math
Quote: darkoz. Yeah, let's see how tracking people on their cell phones will work on the gun-toting protestors who want the economy reopened [/q
Well the cell phones are being tracked, too late for that. It’s not gun toting protesters, it’s the middle and lower classes that need us to open up, to save small business that hires 60% of employees. Thirty Six million out of work. And all we did was delay the inevitable.When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
I believe what they are doing (and definitely doing in china) is forcing people to install apps on their phones. Those apps show if you have been tested or exposed to the virus.
You must scan the barcode from your app at EVERY store in order to enter. Your movements are tracked at each store so others can be warned if you exposed someone (and they were tracked as well)
This isn't some reactive police checking cell towers when you are suspect in a crime. This is proactive so that your every move can be made public record
Quote: darkozThere is cell phone tracking and then there is cell phone tracking
I believe what they are doing (and definitely doing in china) is forcing people to install apps on their phones. Those apps show if you have been tested or exposed to the virus.
You must scan the barcode from your app at EVERY store in order to enter. Your movements are tracked at each store so others can be warned if you exposed someone (and they were tracked as well)
This isn't some reactive police checking cell towers when you are suspect in a crime. This is proactive so that your every move can be made public record
Personally, I would prefer massive resources dedicated to dogs which can sniff out infected people over software tracking. I think they were having some success with that though it was in the early test stages.
Dogs don't talk, or keep records, but they could be in a lot of places sniffing.
Quote: rxwine2018 pandemic was worse,
I must have been asleep for that one.
(Teasing... 1918 I assume?)
Quote: darkozThere is cell phone tracking and then there is cell phone tracking
I believe what they are doing (and definitely doing in china) is forcing people to install apps on their phones. Those apps show if you have been tested or exposed to the virus.
You must scan the barcode from your app at EVERY store in order to enter. Your movements are tracked at each store so others can be warned if you exposed someone (and they were tracked as well)
This isn't some reactive police checking cell towers when you are suspect in a crime. This is proactive so that your every move can be made public record
Sounds like East Germany. What's next? Not allowed to drive state to state? Or did they not do that one already?
Quote: AZDuffmanSounds like East Germany. What's next? Not allowed to drive state to state? Or did they not do that one already?
Sweden says it is different, and it certainly is different from America. One of the earlier articles linked in this thread talked about why what Sweden does works in Sweden. In Sweden the bulk of the population trusts its government to provide the best advice. Then, when the government provides direction, Swedes follow the directions they are given. Sweden admits, if Sweden behaved like the USA, their C-virus response wouldn't work.
We cannot use Sweden as a model. Too many of us no longer trust our government. And, too many of us have decided not to let anyone -- especially the government -- tell us what to do. Didn't Britain try to do a Sweden, but instead lost about 2 weeks time before it had its Whoopsie moment?
Quote: WishuponacometIt just seems really weird to me. I'd want to stay far away from Coronavirus infected people, not go and mingle/dance with them at "Get infected parties." There are many safe ways to build up immunity. Take Zinc, take Vitamin C, eat healthy, and drink lots of water. Just four ways out of many ways to safely build up a good immune system.
I heard garlic pills is good for immunity.
Quote: jjjooogggI heard garlic pills is good for immunity.
I would think the garlic will help the social distancing.
Quote: LuckyPhowSweden says it is different, and it certainly is different from America. One of the earlier articles linked in this thread talked about why what Sweden does works in Sweden. In Sweden the bulk of the population trusts its government to provide the best advice. Then, when the government provides direction, Swedes follow the directions they are given. Sweden admits, if Sweden behaved like the USA, their C-virus response wouldn't work.
We cannot use Sweden as a model. Too many of us no longer trust our government. And, too many of us have decided not to let anyone -- especially the government -- tell us what to do. Didn't Britain try to do a Sweden, but instead lost about 2 weeks time before it had its Whoopsie moment?
People mostly do follow the government in our more routine more localized emergencies. Tornados, hurricanes, forest fires, heat waves, floods, or whatever.
This was unfamiliar territory for many.
You have to watch those early-returns articles and studies. Everybody is squinting at data and trying to get stories out there ASAP, and half the time, they turn out to be mirages.
So the issue is that when one person stays at home, other people in the family do not. Thus, the other people bring the virus home. Since the people who stayed at home are probably those with the weakest immune systems, it figures they would be the ones getting symptoms and getting ill. Since the majority of those being tested are those with symptoms, this would be what one would expect.
Also, once a family member who interacts outside introduces the virus into the home environment, the home environment becomes especially a problem since the person who is staying at home is always there. Ergo weakest immune system meets virus, symptoms emerge. Person who stayed at home becomes ill and gets tested. Ergo testing shows those staying-at-home to be catching the virus.
Is this supposed to be surprising?
Quote: redietzRight. Is this supposed to be surprising?
It certainly was to the governor! But nothing surprises you, maybe you should get on the horn and tell Cuomo how to run the state? After all Sweden seems to be doing a lot better than New York State! And prisoners 1% new infections! Folks got some splainning to do Lucy!
When someone is infected there really is no way to quarantine them from the rest of the family
There is no go to the garage scenario
Quote: darkozNYC has a hig predominance of apartment high-rise living.
When someone is infected there really is no way to quarantine them from the rest of the family
There is no go to the garage scenario
Tokyo more dense than NYC way more. Less fatalities, way less.
Quote: DeMangoAnybody hear the new math coming from NewYork State? According to the gov, 66% of new cases are coming from folks who stayed at home. This does not include nursing homes. 1% prisons!
With 95% of people staying home , where else would the new infections come from?
My old bar has been closed for six weeks. Not a single infection has been traced to it. Therefore, we can surmise the way to beat the virus is to keep that bar closed, right?
Quote: billryanI'm surprised people aren't making a bigger deal about the reinfected sailors on our aircraft carrier. These guys tested positive, were treated, and recovered but now are positive again. It seems there are two possibilities. Either the tests are not accurate or people can get infected a second( and third time). If the latter is true, a vaccine would be mostly useless.
Was reading about this issue from I believe the Rockefeller medical institute. Doesn’t mean vaccine is useless. Even if you can catch it again, the immune response can be quicker and better so you are much less likely to get a sever case. Similar to how you might still get the flu after getting a flu shot (where the flu shot captured the right strain) but it’s much more likely to be a mild strain.
More data needed to know how it would play out with a COVID vaccine.
Quote: LuckyPhowSweden says it is different, and it certainly is different from America. One of the earlier articles linked in this thread talked about why what Sweden does works in Sweden. In Sweden the bulk of the population trusts its government to provide the best advice. Then, when the government provides direction, Swedes follow the directions they are given. Sweden admits, if Sweden behaved like the USA, their C-virus response wouldn't work.
We cannot use Sweden as a model. Too many of us no longer trust our government. And, too many of us have decided not to let anyone -- especially the government -- tell us what to do. Didn't Britain try to do a Sweden, but instead lost about 2 weeks time before it had its Whoopsie moment?
As a parttime resident of Sweden I can tell you, you really cannot use Sweden as a model for the US in regards to handling Covid-19. 40% of Americans have simply gone batshit crazy following the utterly stupid direction of the orange baboon in the White House.
No. not negates. But lessens. If herd immunity means that you can still get infected but it’s like the common cold or flu, because your immunoresponse is faster and better, then that’s much better than what it is today. Could be that we need a annual shot like we do with flu. Again. More data needed.Quote: billryanIf it can re-infect people, doesn't that negate the herd immunity aurgement.?
Quote: FrankyAs a parttime resident of Sweden I can tell you, you really cannot use Sweden as a model for the US in regards to handling Covid-19. 40% of Americans have simply gone batshit crazy following the utterly stupid direction of the orange baboon in the White House.
I'm not sure how anyone can look at Swedens numbers and call it a success.
Quote: billryanI'm not sure how anyone can look at Swedens numbers and call it a success.
I completely agree because Sweden isn't handling this crisis a whole lot better than the US. Here's a couple of reasons why Sweden can't be used as a model country for the US.
1. Sweden is about the size of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee combined and only has 10 million inhabitants. 60% of the population of Sweden lives in a couple of large cities like Stockholm, Malmö, Göteborg, Umea, Karlstad and a few others. So in 90% of the country social distancing is not an issue at all.
2. Swedes are pretty private people. They're a little stand-offish. They're not into hugging or kissing when seeing friends and building friendships with them (to the point where you get invited to their house) very often takes years.
3. In Swedish culture family (especially children) comes first. Careers and materialism aren't all that important to them. Having wood in the stove, food on the table and a roof over your head, a happy family and healthy kids that's all that matters. Everything else is a bonus. So in other words Swedish people are a lot less result driven than Americans.
4. Free healthcare for everyone. As soon as you have a Swedish personnummer (a personal id-number that is used for everything and is proof that you are an inhabitant of Sweden) you have health insurance and it doesn't cost you anything. The government pays for it through the tax system. You can buy additional private insurance if you want "extras". This basically means: nobody in Sweden dies because of a lack of proper health insurance
5. Labor laws are way different from the US. During this Corona crisis, the number of unemployed in the US exploded within a couple of weeks. Not so in Sweden. Employees are protected a lot better and can't be fired that easily. Many Americans live paycheck to paycheck and they simply have to work because they run out of money very very fast when businesses shut down. In Sweden, not so much. Most people don't go belly up if they don't work for a couple of months. They still get paid, they don't get fired immediately, they don't lose their health insurance.
6. Since Swedish people do not like confrontations the country isn't utterly devided like the US. Gun laws are very strict so you don't have morons with rocket launchers strapped to their backs, M16's in their hands storming the state capital to "demand their freedom back". If the government tells you it's best to handle a situation a certain way, most people oblige.
7. Privacy in some cases (pretty stupid to be honest) is a very big issue in Sweden. For example, our county in Sweden simply does not have a Covid-19 patient count because that would negatively impact the privacy of patients.
Just a couple examples of why Sweden should not be compared to the US in regards to handling Covid-19. If you take this information about Sweden into consideration you could pretty easily conclude Sweden isn't handling Covid-19 well at all.
Quote: billryanIf it can re-infect people, doesn't that negate the herd immunity aurgement.?
Billy, you keep missing the main points.
1. If reinfected, the likelihood of getting actually sick may be substantially lower. Individually, you don't care if you get infected; you care if you get sick once infected.
2. If having been previously infected, your chance of being re-infected drops to a level low enough that there are far more things out there to worry about.
3. As previously mentioned, because a governor decides a casino can open, it does not mean you as an individual has to go there. Each person can decide what is safe to him or herself.
Quote: SOOPOOBilly, you keep missing the main points.
1. If reinfected, the likelihood of getting actually sick may be substantially lower. Individually, you don't care if you get infected; you care if you get sick once infected.
2. If having been previously infected, your chance of being re-infected drops to a level low enough that there are far more things out there to worry about.
3. As previously mentioned, because a governor decides a casino can open, it does not mean you as an individual has to go there. Each person can decide what is safe to him or herself.
Can a person who is re-infected infect others? A re-infected person who isn't sick but can infect others is a nightmare.
Why does your right to infect others trump my right not to be infected?
Perhaps you don't care who you might infect, but most people, I believe, will disagree.
Getting infected and getting sick is just a portion of the equation. Infecting others is just as important.
One person tested positive a day later, and now all 180 people have been informed they must quarantine at home for two weeks.
What are the chances of that happening?
Quote: billryanCan a person who is re-infected infect others? A re-infected person who isn't sick but can infect others is a nightmare.
Why does your right to infect others trump my right not to be infected?
Perhaps you don't care who you might infect, but most people, I believe, will disagree.
Getting infected and getting sick is just a portion of the equation. Infecting others is just as important.
Not an expert, but I would say that yes, a person that is re-infected can re-infect others.
I do care who I may infect. I will wear a mask if required, or asked by anyone.
The tough part of the question is why my right to infect others trumps your right to not be infected. Because I might infect you with meningitis, the flu, tuberculosis, etc... YOU can wear a mask at ALL times to protect yourself. YOU do not have to go to the game, concert, casino, restaurant, brothel....
Life is risky. It never ends well.
Quote: SOOPOONot an expert, but I would say that yes, a person that is re-infected can re-infect others.
I do care who I may infect. I will wear a mask if required, or asked by anyone.
The tough part of the question is why my right to infect others trumps your right to not be infected. Because I might infect you with meningitis, the flu, tuberculosis, etc... YOU can wear a mask at ALL times to protect yourself. YOU do not have to go to the game, concert, casino, restaurant, brothel....
Life is risky. It never ends well.
I'd hope that if you knew you were in a position to infect someone with tb or meningitis, you'd have the common sense not to go out where you might infect people. The person who chooses to sit next to you has made a choice. The wife and kids he brings your virus home to, not so much.
Quote: unJonWas reading about this issue from I believe the Rockefeller medical institute. Doesn’t mean vaccine is useless. Even if you can catch it again, the immune response can be quicker and better so you are much less likely to get a sever case. Similar to how you might still get the flu after getting a flu shot (where the flu shot captured the right strain) but it’s much more likely to be a mild strain.
More data needed to know how it would play out with a COVID vaccine.
we already have a growing number of people saying they’ll refuse the vaccine because either..
1. They are anti vaxx in general
Or
2. They are concerned about the safety issues with rushing
a vaccine to market without the proper protocols. Something that in the past has taken from 2-20 years to develop and test is now possibly going in our bodies 12 months after the actual virus was discovered.
And to make matters worse , now we’ll have a vaccine that will still allow you to get sick when you are exposed to someone. But just kinda sorta sick , not so bad.
Quote: SOOPOOBecause I might infect you with meningitis, the flu, tuberculosis, etc... YOU can wear a mask at ALL times to protect yourself. YOU do not have to go to the game, concert, casino, restaurant, brothel....
Oh HELL no!. We're locking you up if you got all that crap going on! ; ]
I was not able to pin down references to what percent of total employed are considered "essential." I did see, however, that more than a third of the transit use in New York in normal times was by workers considered essential. And I believe I did hear a quote that even with the New York lockdown, 30% were still going to work. Those numbers kind of jive with each other.
So even with a stringent (by U.S. standards) lockdown, roughly 30% of workers were still going out and interacting in high risk environments, so it's not surprising that they would be bringing it home.
Quote: billryanI'd hope that if you knew you were in a position to infect someone with tb or meningitis, you'd have the common sense not to go out where you might infect people. The person who chooses to sit next to you has made a choice. The wife and kids he brings your virus home to, not so much.
I was trying to flip back and forth between Soopoo's and your perspectives on this the other day. So here's the blog entry discussing both sides. I've also done a first draft of a further, more off-the-wall discussion about this, but haven't finished it yet.
https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot.com/2020/05/speculations.html
Tennessee
Confirmed Cases __________16,111
Hospitalizations _________1,363
Fatalities _____________264
Recovered___________ 8,336
Total Tested_____________283,924
I can think of a couple of possible reasons:
1. Fewer nursing homes with infection problems??
2. More confirmed cases in Tennessee tend to be in lower age groups??? (sorta the same as the first reason.)
3. Tennesseans have better over-all health???? (I think this is very unlikely.)
4. Less virulent mutation of Covid-19 in Tennessee?
Anyone who claims that this is a well-understood virus is fooling themselves.
*****************************************************
Also, Hamblen County, TN is the only county in the U.S. to have no covid-19 cases. The County mayor attributes that to the fact that they have no straight roads in Hamblen County - they are isolated.
Quote: gordonm888Vanderbilt Medical Center has reported that Tennessee is experiencing an anomalously low rate of hospitalizations (per confirmed case, I think.)
Tennessee
Confirmed Cases __________16,111
Hospitalizations _________1,363
Fatalities _____________264
Recovered___________ 8,336
Total Tested_____________283,924
I can think of a couple of possible reasons:
1. Fewer nursing homes with infection problems??
2. More confirmed cases in Tennessee tend to be in lower age groups??? (sorta the same as the first reason.)
3. Tennesseans have better over-all health???? (I think this is very unlikely.)
4. Less virulent mutation of Covid-19 in Tennessee?
I think people are trying to read tea leaves way too hard. Week to week data may not mean much. Yes, Tennessee mortality per case is anomalously low. That could be due to your #1 and #2. It could also be that Tennessee has done more expansive testing than the country, so the few fatalities are against a background of a lot of tests.
I live in Tennessee. Everybody was hootin' and hollerin' a week ago because, after lifting restrictions, Tennessee led the nation in percent decline in cases! Then this week, lo and behold, Tennessee leads the nation in percent increase in cases!
Variance? Or is the effect of opening up a week or so slower than most folks anticipated? Hard to tell."You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
Quote: beachbumbabsThere are now 13 sailors who are reinfected and testing positive. The Pentagon says that tells us how little we actually know about this virus. (Per their press conference today).
Not only do we not know what percent of people can be re-infected, we don't know if the reinfection will be less or more severe than the initial go-round. Do we acquire some degree of amelioration, or do our immune systems wear down and react more poorly?
Quote: gordonm888Vanderbilt Medical Center has reported that Tennessee is experiencing an anomalously low rate of hospitalizations (per confirmed case, I think.)
Tennessee
Confirmed Cases __________16,111
Hospitalizations _________1,363
Fatalities _____________264
Recovered___________ 8,336
Total Tested_____________283,924
I can think of a couple of possible reasons:
1. Fewer nursing homes with infection problems??
2. More confirmed cases in Tennessee tend to be in lower age groups??? (sorta the same as the first reason.)
3. Tennesseans have better over-all health???? (I think this is very unlikely.)
4. Less virulent mutation of Covid-19 in Tennessee?
Anyone who claims that this is a well-understood virus is fooling themselves.
*****************************************************
Also, Hamblen County, TN is the only county in the U.S. to have no covid-19 cases. The County mayor attributes that to the fact that they have no straight roads in Hamblen County - they are isolated.
Or it could be even virus's choose not to live in Tennessee!
Quote: gordonm888
Also, Hamblen County, TN is the only county in the U.S. to have no covid-19 cases.
Wow, I find that hard to believe. I would have assumed a rural county in Iowa or Kansas would be free from Covid.
Quote: DRichWow, I find that hard to believe. I would have assumed a rural county in Iowa or Kansas would be free from Covid.
Or some island county in Alaska. How many covid cases could there be on Kodiak or the Aleutians?
Quote: gordonm888Vanderbilt Medical Center has reported that Tennessee is experiencing an anomalously low rate of hospitalizations (per confirmed case, I think.)
Tennessee
Confirmed Cases __________16,111
Hospitalizations _________1,363
Fatalities _____________264
Recovered___________ 8,336
Total Tested_____________283,924
I can think of a couple of possible reasons:
1. Fewer nursing homes with infection problems??
2. More confirmed cases in Tennessee tend to be in lower age groups??? (sorta the same as the first reason.)
3. Tennesseans have better over-all health???? (I think this is very unlikely.)
4. Less virulent mutation of Covid-19 in Tennessee?
Anyone who claims that this is a well-understood virus is fooling themselves.
*****************************************************
Also, Hamblen County, TN is the only county in the U.S. to have no covid-19 cases. The County mayor attributes that to the fact that they have no straight roads in Hamblen County - they are isolated.
Quote: DRichWow, I find that hard to believe. I would have assumed a rural county in Iowa or Kansas would be free from Covid.
You'd be right. As of Friday, there were 232 counties remaining with zero cases according to this.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/5196441002
But the county Gordon claimed that was the only county in the US that had none apparently has 25!!!! cases so far with two deaths.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/tennessee-coronavirus-cases.amp.html
So has Gordon not checked the numbers since March or what? The first case in that county was announced on my 40th birthday, March 20th. Almost two months ago!!!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wate.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-tennessee-hamblen-county-has-first-confirmed-case-mayor-bill-brittain-says/amp/
For someone that posts a lot on this stuff, it would be nice to have facts right. Or at least not utterly wrong.
Quote: jjjooogggAn employee admitted that she knew 2 weeks ago that she had bbq with an infected person. Since then she tested negative. She risked everyones life by not quarantining before the test and working
And there will be thousands and thousands more stories just like this in the months to come.
People just don't get it.
Quote: tringlomaneAnd there will be thousands and thousands more stories just like this in the months to come.
People just don't get it.
They get it. They're just selfish and don't care.
Quote: tringlomaneAnd there will be thousands and thousands more stories just like this in the months to come.
People just don't get it.
Wonder how bad it will have to get before an opened state reverts back to a fully restricted quarantine.
Based on opening up way too early, this is bound to happen in a few places.
Now, if we're talking annually, like the flu and it's many variations, that makes sense. But within a month or weeks is just crazy.
Some sort of error, makes more sense to me in the sailor's case.
Also, seems too early for a second wave.
Quote: rsactuaryThey get it. They're just selfish and don't care.
Let’s be real. At least 80% of people’s opinion on this falls along economic selfishness lines whichever side of continued indefinite shutdown they fall on. People are overwhelmingly selfish by human nature. Labeling specific people or groups that is just name calling, and people get more belligerent about it the more anyone disagrees with them.
Those who are privileged and can work from home or are making more from unemployment+CARES disproportionately overwhelmingly support shutting down indefinitely as long as it in no way hurts them financially to do so, those who want more freedom of choice a disproportionate percentage of them are being financially harmed by indefinite shutdown. Sure there will be a few exceptions, those who just lose their sense of worth and feel like a bum getting paid more for nothing and then those who are perfectly content living a life of comic books/Netflix, wrestling and grilled cheese:), or perhaps just a few noble soles, but that will be just a few.
Quote: jjjooogggAn employee admitted that she knew 2 weeks ago that she had bbq with an infected person. Since then she tested negative. She risked everyones life by not quarantining before the test and working
You label her as an employee, which can be defined as someone who responds to financial incentives; then you question that she was being influenced by the financial incentives of work. She was not the problem, she merely revealed the problem of having public health in such heavy conflict with some peoples economic health. Everyone whose lives were risked from being exposed to her knew that there was a pandemic, why were they still choosing to go to work?
