Slot bonus EV+ or not?
Slot has 98.60% RTP.
Max bet 50.
How much can i expect to win? Also i'd really like to know what the probability of actually ending up at a loss is? Because Ev+ ofcourse is not a guarantee of short-term winning as we all know.
Quote: Sm0keyDeposit 3000 and get 3000 in bonus. The bonus sum has to be wagered 25x (75,000 in total).
Slot has 98.60% RTP.
Max bet 50.
How much can i expect to win? Also i'd really like to know what the probability of actually ending up at a loss is? Because Ev+ ofcourse is not a guarantee of short-term winning as we all know.
Is it a USA regulated casino?
Do they give any cash back for points?
You also might want to consider hit big or bust strategy for better value.
Quote: Sm0keyDeposit 3000 and get 3000 in bonus. The bonus sum has to be wagered 25x (75,000 in total).
Slot has 98.60% RTP.
Max bet 50.
How much can i expect to win? Also i'd really like to know what the probability of actually ending up at a loss is? Because Ev+ ofcourse is not a guarantee of short-term winning as we all know.
As I see it...
Expected Return = Deposit + Bonus - Action x Edge
=3000 + 3000 - 75000 x (1-0.986)
=4950
Expected Profit=4950 - 3000 = 1950
As to calculating probability of success, I'll leave that to someone else, but suffice to say that best way to reduce variance is to keep banging away at minimum bet.
However, if losing all of deposit and bonus cancels out the wagering requirement, I believe that EV is maximised by wagering the whole bankroll, 5h1t or bust, on one spin.... Though that probably minimises probability of success, depending on the pay-table.
Oh.... and beware of the smallprint. Not all online casinos are created equal. Often, different games have different contribution to WR.
E&OE
Quote: AxelWolf$1, 050 in Value
We were typing at the same time. AW, please see my calcs and check them against your own.
Quote: AxelWolf$1, 050 in Value
Is it a USA regulated casino?
Do they give any cash back for points?
You also might want to consider hit big or bust strategy for better value.
I'd rather not go into what casino it is or from where, or wich slot it is. Because many casinos tend to nose around and it's better that they're not being brought to attention when they're offering value so that they can plug up the pipe. I can tell about it through PM if someone has personal interest in the offer.
How can i calculate the risk of ending up with any less than my 3000 deposited, that i'm walking out at an actual loss?
I assume you are better at math than I so I deleted mine not to confuse the OP and I will rethink my estimate.Quote: OnceDearWe were typing at the same time. AW, please see my calcs and check them against your own.
I wasn't asking exactly where, I just wanted to caution you if it's not in a regulated jurisdiction.Quote: Sm0keyI'd rather not go into what casino it is or from where, or wich slot it is. Because many casinos tend to nose around and it's better that they're not being brought to attention when they're offering value so that they can plug up the pipe. I can tell about it through PM if someone has personal interest in the offer.
How can i calculate the risk of ending up with any less than my 3000 deposited, that i'm walking out at an actual loss?
Quote: AxelWolfI wasn't asking exactly where, I just wanted to caution you if it's not in a regulated jurisdiction.
It's a regulated casino no shady stuff.
Those terms seem pretty good, but I gather the place is not available to US or UK users. Caveat emptor though. I suspect a typo/omission in their rules or RTP calcs.Quote: Sm0keyIt's a regulated casino no shady stuff.
Forgot to subtract $1,050 from the 3k bonus.Quote: AxelWolfI assume you are better at math than I so I deleted mine not to confuse the OP and I will rethink my estimate.
Quote: Sm0key(snip)How can i calculate the risk of ending up with any less than my 3000 deposited, that i'm walking out at an actual loss?
The information provided so far is good for working out the EV of the promotion, but the "risk of a loss " chance will be hard for anyone to estimate until you provide the variance or standard deviation for the game.
The beating bonuses*** website I gave you before in your thread "BJ BONUS...", should help you get a close approximation for "... walking out at an actual loss" (once you know or can accurately estimate the standard deviation for the game).
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/slotgames.htm
Note: I couldn't find a "slots option" in the "RETURN & VARIANCE CALCULATOR", so you can pick another game, eg baccarat, and then change the figures for the house edge and standard deviation.
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Have to go out now, spelling not checked etc.
