BJ bonus offering - is it ev+?
You deposit 2500 and get 2500 additional in bonus, the bonus has to be wagered 60x så 150,000 in total. Max initial bet is 100 (so splits and doubles count as legitimate when they exceed the sum).
The rules: 8 Decks,
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Peek on Ace Only
No DAS
0.71% edge
Is it EV+? How much can i expect to win and how big is the risk of losing (my total money in the end being less than the 2500 i deposited?)
Quote: Sm0keyHi need help with some math and to figure out whether this is worthwhile or not.
You deposit 2500 and get 2500 additional in bonus, the bonus has to be wagered 60x så 150,000 in total. Max initial bet is 100 (so splits and doubles count as legitimate when they exceed the sum).
The rules: 8 Decks,
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Peek on Ace Only
No DAS
0.71% edge
Is it EV+? How much can i expect to win and how big is the risk of losing (my total money in the end being less than the 2500 i deposited?)
The math will show it’s worthwhile by $1000 or so. Whether you can actually get your money out is the main confounding factor. Do you think if you run this promo and win $5000 they will actually let you cash it out?
You need to wager 150,000 losing, on average, 0.71% of that...Quote: Sm0keyHi need help with some math and to figure out whether this is worthwhile or not.
You deposit 2500 and get 2500 additional in bonus, the bonus has to be wagered 60x så 150,000 in total. Max initial bet is 100 (so splits and doubles count as legitimate when they exceed the sum).
The rules: 8 Decks,
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Peek on Ace Only
No DAS
0.71% edge
Is it EV+? How much can i expect to win and how big is the risk of losing (my total money in the end being less than the 2500 i deposited?)
0.71% of 150,000 = 1065 lost.
so your end balance after those wagers would average 5,000-1065 = 3935 for expected profit of 1435.....
To reduce variance, your best chance would be flat betting table minimum, but that would take AGES.
Variance would put your potential for going bust with high probability.
Also, read the small print and check the integrity of the casino. There be dragons!
What happens if you lose your entire balance? Do wagering requirements get wiped or persist into your next deposit? ( A not unheard of outrageous rule ) They probably don't state that in the Ts and Cs.
I play BJ online, but I'd avoid that unless it was 30x WR at a place I trusted.
Quote: SOOPOOThe math will show it’s worthwhile by $1000 or so. Whether you can actually get your money out is the main confounding factor. Do you think if you run this promo and win $5000 they will actually let you cash it out?
Yes
Quote: OnceDearYou need to wager 150,000 losing, on average, 0.71% of that...
0.71% of 150,000 = 1065 lost.
so your end balance after those wagers would average 5,000-1065 = 3935 for expected profit of 1435.....
To reduce variance, your best chance would be flat betting table minimum, but that would take AGES.
Variance would put your potential for going bust with high probability.
Also, read the small print and check the integrity of the casino. There be dragons!
What happens if you lose your entire balance? Do wagering requirements get wiped or persist into your next deposit? ( A not unheard of outrageous rule ) They probably don't state that in the Ts and Cs.
I play BJ online, but I'd avoid that unless it was 30x WR at a place I trusted.
But how likely am i to end up with less than my initial 2500 deposited when the wagering is done is there a number to this?
Quote: Sm0keyHi need help with some math and to figure out whether this is worthwhile or not.
You deposit 2500 and get 2500 additional in bonus, the bonus has to be wagered 60x så 150,000 in total. Max initial bet is 100 (so splits and doubles count as legitimate when they exceed the sum).
The rules: 8 Decks,
Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Peek on Ace Only
No DAS
0.71% edge
Is it EV+? How much can i expect to win and how big is the risk of losing (my total money in the end being less than the 2500 i deposited?)
Can you provide some more info, see below:
1) Is the bonus "cashable" (in other words do you get to "withdraw the bonus" after the required "wagering has been completed")?
2) Is the bonus a "one off promotion" or can you "re-use the bonus over multiple deposits (if so how many)?
3) Do doubles and splits count towards the wagering (if yes, then I get the "average/expected loss" as ~ 968***, before any bet size and bonus considerations) ?
4) Is the game/promotion to do with a "live dealer" or "RNG" type game?
5) Optional (don't have to answer if you don't want to): if the answer to question 2 is, "yes it is a re-usable bonus", then could you provide your total bank-roll/budget your are setting aside for this promotion.
***: I had to guess that the "Final Bet to Initial Bet Ratio" was about 1.1, because of potential for doubles and splits (but it could be any number around 1.08 to 1.14, as I don't know how to work this figure out).
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Below are some scenarios for if you answered this to the following points above:
1) Yes, it is "cashable", 2) "one off promotion". 3) yes, "doubles and splits count", 4) "RNG" game, 5) NA
Note: In all the scenarios below, it is assumed you are investing 500 x "your flat bet" per hour, which is "easily doable" for RNG online games (10 years ago I was doing up to 800 hands per hour, and currently I do between 450 and 600 hands per hour for "RNG" games).
Note 2: I wrote the "chance of bust" in terms of "standard deviations" for $4 and $10 flat bets, and as a % for all other scenarios.
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Scenario "$4 flat bet" :
Expected gain (from bonus): +2,500
Expected loss (from house edge and bet size): ~ -968
Expected Return (net return): ~ + 1,532
Chance of any net loss: ~1.87 "Standard deviations" (SD)
Chance of bust: ~ 4.92 SD
EV per hour: ~ $20.42
Hours played per deposit (if you don't bust out early): 75 hours
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Scenario "$10 flat bet" :
Expected gain (from bonus): +2,500
Expected loss (from house edge and bet size): ~ -966
Expected Return (net return): ~ + 1,534
Chance of any net loss: ~1.18 SD
Chance of bust: ~ 3.11 SD
EV per hour: ~ $51.13
Hours played per deposit (if you don't bust out early): 30 hours
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Scenario "$25 flat bet" :
Expected gain (from bonus): +2,500
Expected loss (from house edge and bet size): ~ -948
Expected Return (net return): ~ + 1,552
Chance of any net loss: ~0.76 SD
Chance of bust: ~ 4.3% (see bottom of post)
EV per hour: ~ $129.33
Hours played per deposit (if you don't bust out early): 12 hours
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Scenario "$50 flat bet" :
Expected gain (from bonus): +2,500
Expected loss (from house edge and bet size): ~ -906
Expected Return (net return): ~ + 1,594
Chance of any net loss: ~0.55 SD
Chance of bust: ~14.5% (see bottom of post)
EV per hour: ~ $265.67
Hours played per deposit (if you don't bust out early): 6 hours
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Scenario "$100 flat bet" :
Expected gain (from bonus): +2,500
Expected loss (from house edge and bet size): ~ -829
Expected Return (net return): ~ + 1,671
Chance of any net loss: ~0.41 SD
Chance of bust: ~29.2% (see bottom of post)
EV per hour: ~ $557.00
Hours played per deposit (if you don't bust out early): 3 hours
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"Chance of bust": I used the % figure from the link here >>>> http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm <<<< when I changed from "SD" to "%" for this figure.
Note: Remember these figures are just rough estimates, because I don't know what the actual average "Final Bet to Initial bet" ratio is for this game.
Also Note: Since I don't do this type of math very often, can someone better at this "type of thing" check for any errors (thanks).
I want to read the terms myself if I could rather than doing the math for fifteen different possible situations.
I think he runs a site to do with bonuses too (https://lcb.org , right?).
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So if, as Mission said above "... the bonus is not itself cash able" (this is true more often than not).
Then to the best of my knowledge, I do not think it is +EV*** bonus for BJ (since the max initial bet is $100)
***: If you can bet '5 hands' x $100 per game, it may be "beatable". If you bet like that and aim for a fairly high "$ goal" early, and then bet a lot smaller once you have gotten very close to that "$ goal" (it is generally better to be a bit over than a bit under the "$ goal", if you work out "what it should be", correctly).
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For phantom bonuses, the general formula to see if it is "worth playing", is below:
"Average Gain (Average EV) = Bonus * Chance of Bust - Average Wagering * House Edge (per unit wagered)"
Note: the above formula was found on this site >>>http://www.beatingbonuses.com/sticky.htm
Also, I know you said it was a BJ bonus in the "title / and / or OP", but can you use it for other games early and then switch to BJ?
If yes, it is best to play "high variance" games early, and then switch to BJ (if the terms and conditions allow^^^ this)
^^^: Very important to make sure you can do this, as this is one way you could be labelled a "bonus abuser" (if they have a specific term against it).
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Do you have to deposit $2500 to get the 100% bonus, or can you deposit as low as you want (like $100 or $200) and still get the 100% bonus?
If yes, then the BJ game could become "beatable" betting $100 per hand early, aiming for a specific "$ goal" and then betting as small as "realistically possible" once you reach that "$ goal" to "grind out" the bonus.
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Lastly, here is another good link below:
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/twotier.htm
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Update (about 855 pm)
Another reason it would be better to ask/talk to Mission (instead of me) is because my posts/replies can be written "quite poorly" and his seem to be "well written" (based on previous posts of his I have read).
I would definitely say that I agree with everything you’ve said and I found it very well written. I think you’re at least equally as qualified as me to discuss bonuses if not more so. My thinking was it’s just best to figure out the specific terms rather than having to figure for every hypothetical.
Even though I still think my writing is poor/disjointed/"rambling" etc, when my "thoughts are muddled/ all over the place".
Note: My thoughts being "all over the place", happens more often than not.
