More card counting effects on different Baccarat bets
November 16th, 2010 at 2:46:28 AM
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Thanks to the wizard for quickly answering my last question about the house edge of commission free baccarat that pays 1:2 when the bankers wins with a 6. I recently saw your page about the effects of card counting on baccarat and I was wondering if how to calculate the effects of card counting on that commission free baccarat's banker bet. A significant portion of the bet's house edge comes from the odds of the dealer getting a 6 but on the other hand taking out 6s makes it less likely for the banker to win. How would I calculate the effects of removing each card on this bet?
My other question is about the effects of removing cards for the pair bet. I tried removing various cards in a spreadsheet and I noticed that the house edge goes away faster and faster as I remove more of the same card; this is probably because the odds of getting the other cards get higher but is there a way to calculate this without using an excel spreadsheet?
Here is how I made my spreadsheet to calculate the pair bet's house edge: A1 to A13 all have the total number of cards we start with (32 for an 8 decks shoe), B1 to B13 keeps track of the cards dealt and C1 to C13 is just B-A. The 14th row in each column is the sum of the column. For each card I used (C1/C$14*(C1-1)/(C$14-1)) to calculate the probability of getting that specific pair and at the end I used 11*D14-(1-D14) to calculate the EV. Under these conditions, the pair bet's EV would turn positive whenever the total chance of getting a pair is over 1/12. How often would that happen?
My other question is about the effects of removing cards for the pair bet. I tried removing various cards in a spreadsheet and I noticed that the house edge goes away faster and faster as I remove more of the same card; this is probably because the odds of getting the other cards get higher but is there a way to calculate this without using an excel spreadsheet?
Here is how I made my spreadsheet to calculate the pair bet's house edge: A1 to A13 all have the total number of cards we start with (32 for an 8 decks shoe), B1 to B13 keeps track of the cards dealt and C1 to C13 is just B-A. The 14th row in each column is the sum of the column. For each card I used (C1/C$14*(C1-1)/(C$14-1)) to calculate the probability of getting that specific pair and at the end I used 11*D14-(1-D14) to calculate the EV. Under these conditions, the pair bet's EV would turn positive whenever the total chance of getting a pair is over 1/12. How often would that happen?
