2 x steel wheels

I am currently running a promotion in our cardroom, the actually promotion has now finished but there was an excess amount of £44k. No one is now required to pay in to the promotion but the qualifying hands to win the £44k are 2 steel wheels (one of each color - red and black) using 2 cards from your hand. I know the odds are huge, but as I said it is a bonus and will continue until the prize is won.
The bonus round started 2 weeks ago and I have 1 person already hit a red SF to 5.
I estimated approx 2 years to hit (just off the top of my head we have approx 4 games 7 days a week for an average of 10 hours a day, so going off 30 hands an hour)

1. What are the odds of hitting both?
2. Odds of hitting the other color once 1 has been hit?
3. Approx Time it will take to achieve?

Many Thanks to all you wizards in advance!

I assume the bonus is won by the first person to get a red and a black "steel wheel" (i.e. an A2345 straight flush) at any time - that is, the second one can come any number of hands after the first one. I also assume this is Hold'Em.

In order for a particular player to get a steel wheel using both dealt cards,
(a) Both dealt cards must be the same suit, and two of A,2,3,4,5; of the (52)C(2) = 1326 possible pairs of cards, 40 (A2, A3, A4, A5, 23, 24, 25, 34, 35, 45 of each suit) qualify.
(b) Three of the five cards on the board must be the cards that complete the A-5 straight flush; of the (50)C(5) = 2,118,760 sets of board cards not including the player's two dealt cards (the cards dealt to the other players - in fact, the number of other players - is irrelevant here), there are (47)C(2) = 1081 that include the three necessary cards.
The probability of getting a steel wheel that includes both hole cards = 40 / 1326 x 1081 / 2,118,760 = 1 / 64,974.
Note that this includes the board also having a 6 (and possibly a 7 as well) of the same suit - does it still qualify if the player has an A2345 straight flush but also a 23456 one?
30 hands an hour = 300 hands a day = 2100 hands a week, so there should be one every 31 weeks or so.

Now, getting a second one, of the other color, is harder, as instead of 40 pairs of hole cards that qualify, only 20 do, so the probability of getting a steel wheel of a particular color is 1 / 129,948. A player who has a steel wheel has about a 1/130 chance of winning the jackpot at some point in their next 1000 hands.

How long it will take depends on a number of things, including how often a player who gets a steel wheel will continue to play - how many days a week, and how many hands a day.

If a player hits a red steel wheel in December and then hits a black steel wheel in a different session two years later, does that qualify as a win? Or do players necessarily need to hit both colored steel wheels in a single session?

Quote: gordonm888

If a player hits a red steel wheel in December and then hits a black steel wheel in a different session two years later, does that qualify as a win? Or do players necessarily need to hit both colored steel wheels in a single session?

Separate :D I know it's hard but I'm not that cruel

First, I think some of you are reading too much into this.

As I see it, the first person to get any steel wheel, wins the first prize. Then, anyone who gets a steel wheel in the other color, wins the second prize.

The same person does not have to get two steel wheels to win either prize. (That would take forever!)


Personally, I think that they will be hit in a matter of days.

Consider the following rules to a similar promo going on at Golden Nugget in LV. These screen shots are from the Bravo app. The (3) indicates that there are 3 tables running. Also note that the time on the screen shot is where I am, in NJ. It’s about 9am in Vegas.


Based on personal observation, they each advance about $40-$60 per day.

Also, once hit, it resets immediately, so a second hit the same day gets the $50 or $200 reset value.

Therefore, as can be deduced by the rules and current amounts, each of the lower straight flushes, and the royal in spades, has hit within the last few days.


That’s why I give your promo only a few days, a month at most, to be hit. Probably not long enough to get any value out of advertising.

Instead, make it £1,000 for any of the next 44 steel wheels - or something along those lines - and you have something you can promote.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

First, I think some of you are reading too much into this.

As I see it, the first person to get any steel wheel, wins the first prize. Then, anyone who gets a steel wheel in the other color, wins the second prize.

The same person does not have to get two steel wheels to win either prize. (That would take forever!)

Except that the person running the promotion is the original poster, and has noted that someone has already hit a steel wheel, but didn't say that the person won the jackpot.

Another factor is that most players fold before the flop with hands like 52s, 53s, 43s, 42s and 32s. A large jackpot might change that behavior a little bit but in general, the odds of getting a steel wheel in practice are longer than what the math says.

We are already on to our next promotion, this is just a bonus round (as no monies will be deducted for this), in our local area there are 5 cardrooms, the idea is to tie everyone that hits one in to only playing at our venue. So from my point of view the longer the better :D

The guy that has already hit one, was 1 seat out of winning the whole thing after 3 weeks. He changed seats and the guy in his original seat folded his black steel wheel draw on the flop, not realizing about the promotion. .... and would have hit.