Football Pool Probably ?
November 5th, 2010 at 6:56:10 AM
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Was wondering if anyone can answer a probably question. The golf course that I go to runs numerous 100 square football pools.
Paying off on last number of scores each qtr. i.e. 23 to 19 winner has 3 on top and 9 on the side.
A few of us have been discussing if the probably changes by the selection of squares on the pool. We all agree that numbers
0, 3. 4, & 7 are the best for football.
Question is: If the numbers are randomly drawn, and entered left to right, then top to bottom, is it better to have the 1st square
on the pool. Argument is the with Sq. #1 you have a better chance to have a 0, 3, 4, or 7 drawn.
Paying off on last number of scores each qtr. i.e. 23 to 19 winner has 3 on top and 9 on the side.
A few of us have been discussing if the probably changes by the selection of squares on the pool. We all agree that numbers
0, 3. 4, & 7 are the best for football.
Question is: If the numbers are randomly drawn, and entered left to right, then top to bottom, is it better to have the 1st square
on the pool. Argument is the with Sq. #1 you have a better chance to have a 0, 3, 4, or 7 drawn.
November 5th, 2010 at 7:15:38 AM
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It's the same.
The first row / column has a 40% chance of getting one of the good numbers.
The second row / column has a 40% chance of having only three good numbers left. That means the chance of getting a good number is .4 * ( 3 / 9 ) = 13.33%.
But it ALSO has a 60% chance of having four good numbers left. The chance of picking one is .6 * ( 4 / 9 ) = 26.67%
13.33 + 26.67 = 40%
You could continue for each row / column, but the math gets horendously complex. Bottom line: Every row / column has an equal chance of getting the good numbers.
The first row / column has a 40% chance of getting one of the good numbers.
The second row / column has a 40% chance of having only three good numbers left. That means the chance of getting a good number is .4 * ( 3 / 9 ) = 13.33%.
But it ALSO has a 60% chance of having four good numbers left. The chance of picking one is .6 * ( 4 / 9 ) = 26.67%
13.33 + 26.67 = 40%
You could continue for each row / column, but the math gets horendously complex. Bottom line: Every row / column has an equal chance of getting the good numbers.
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http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
November 5th, 2010 at 8:02:45 AM
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Why not just take a look at the responses that were provided the first time you asked this question? That thread is located here.Quote: gungaWas wondering if anyone can answer a probably question. The golf course that I go to runs numerous 100 square football pools.
Paying off on last number of scores each qtr. i.e. 23 to 19 winner has 3 on top and 9 on the side.
A few of us have been discussing if the probably changes by the selection of squares on the pool. We all agree that numbers
0, 3. 4, & 7 are the best for football.
Question is: If the numbers are randomly drawn, and entered left to right, then top to bottom, is it better to have the 1st square
on the pool. Argument is the with Sq. #1 you have a better chance to have a 0, 3, 4, or 7 drawn.
