gunga
gunga
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
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November 2nd, 2010 at 5:59:05 AM permalink
Was wondering if anyone can answer a probably question. The golf course that I go to runs numerous 100 square football pools.
Paying off on last number of scores each qtr. i.e. 23 to 19 winner has 3 on top and 9 on the side.

A few of us have been discussing if the probably changes by the selection of squares on the pool.
We all agree that numbers 0, 3. 4, & 7 are the best for football.

Question is: If the numbers are randomly drawn, and entered left to right, then top to bottom, is it better to have the
1st square on the pool.

Argument is thatbt picking Sq. #1 you have a better chance to have a 0, 3, 4, or 7 drawn.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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November 2nd, 2010 at 6:46:37 AM permalink
The Wizard made a table confirming that 0,3,4 and 7 are the best spots to get here:

http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/sports.html

But, if they are randomly drawn, you have no advantage knowing this. Taking the first square does NOT increase your chance of drawing a 0,3,4 or 7 over any other numbers. Is there something that came up in your discussion that made you think this?
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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November 2nd, 2010 at 1:03:35 PM permalink
Quote: gunga

Was wondering if anyone can answer a probably question. The golf course that I go to runs numerous 100 square football pools.
Paying off on last number of scores each qtr. i.e. 23 to 19 winner has 3 on top and 9 on the side.

A few of us have been discussing if the probably changes by the selection of squares on the pool.
We all agree that numbers 0, 3. 4, & 7 are the best for football.

Question is: If the numbers are randomly drawn, and entered left to right, then top to bottom, is it better to have the
1st square on the pool.

Argument is thatbt picking Sq. #1 you have a better chance to have a 0, 3, 4, or 7 drawn.



No. If the squares are randomly assigned, then each has the same chance of getting a "good" number.

For example, if you don't get Square #1, but then Square #1 doesn't draw one of the "good" numbers, Square #2 has a BETTER chance (4 out of 9) to get a good number than #1 had (4 out of 10). So the advantage of getting first crack at the good numbers is offset by having the worst chance of getting one of those numbers.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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November 2nd, 2010 at 5:33:02 PM permalink
There may be some advantage to buying squares on the same row or column. If you happen to get 7, 0, or 4, it could be golden if the teams have strong defenses, and don't score much.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
gunga
gunga
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
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November 7th, 2010 at 5:49:42 AM permalink
OK, I left something out, trying to not make the question more confusing the 1st time.

First: They run five 100/sq pools a week. The kicker being that each player picks his/her square before the start of the season. This means that if you pick sq. 1 (upper left), you have sq. 1 all season.

Each week they draw one number to select the sq. where they will be
starting the numbering. Then they re-scuffle the deck and randomly select the 10 numbers, writing the 1st number in the previously selected box. They do this on both the top and side.

Their belief is the this evens out the chance that the 1st few squares have a better chance of getting the good numbers 0, 3, 4, or 7.

I say it doesn’t make a different.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 7th, 2010 at 6:45:45 AM permalink
You're right.

It doesn't make a difference.

However, don't start an argument about it. You should just let them do it if it makes them happy.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
gunga
gunga
Joined: Nov 2, 2010
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November 11th, 2010 at 9:32:12 AM permalink
I've got a dinner bet on it
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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November 11th, 2010 at 9:59:21 AM permalink
Quote: gunga

I've got a dinner bet on it



Bon appetite, you win.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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