rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 10th, 2019 at 5:14:33 PM permalink
few years ago, i have been posted some online live casino in my country giving 0.7% turnover as commision for us. now, i am getting more. I receive weekly LOSS REFUND 5% from the recap lose from monday-sunday
so if this week i loss 1000 unit, i will get refund of 50 unit
if i win on this particular week, the counting get restart on the next week

assuming i play baccarat with 1.2% house edge
i get 0.7% refund every time i bet (win or lose), so i think, the house edge is go down to 0.5%

if i get 5% loss refund on the losing week, can i assume i have 2.5% edge of expected return?

which way is safer to use this promotion? for now, i am betting fibonnaci progression using two account (both side banker + player)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 10th, 2019 at 7:16:53 PM permalink
Check the bonus terms and conditions and if you are allowed to, then I would do one of the following:

For the options below, I am assuming you have $1,000 per week to use for gambling.

One option: Play blackjack or something with a low house edge.

for blackjack bet half your CURRENT bank-roll per game until you double your INITIAL bank-roll or bust (then wait til the next week and repeat).

NB: I haven't worked out the EV per week for the above.

Another option: Play video poker with a high standard deviation***

standard deviation***: Joker Poker (kings)" or higher.

If you choose Joker Poker (kings), I am going to assume a Standard Deviation of 5.18 and a house edge of 1.4%(house edge before the 0.7% commission on turnover).

Best way: If you can bet your entire bank-roll ,then I would bet $1000 per bet until I reached about $10,000 (or bust), this is worth an EV of $40 per week.

Alternative way: If you can only bet in $50 units, then I would bet $50 per bet until my balance was about $2,200 (or bust), this is worth an EV of about $15 per week.

"Baccarat" way: If you only bet on the player bet for baccarat, then it is worth about $11.7^^^ EV per week

^^^: If you bet your entire bank-roll of $1000, and your goal was to reach $2,000 or bust, and the EV will be less if you can't bet your full bank-roll on one bet.

Note: the above EVs don't include the value of the "turnover commission".

Update:

Below is a link that you may find interesting:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/cashback.htm
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2019
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 10th, 2019 at 8:38:02 PM permalink
Thanks for your information
Do you think its better to use a larger bet or i can bet small size to reduce variance effect?
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 10th, 2019 at 10:31:45 PM permalink
Use as large*** a bet as possible in general, because "variance is your friend^^^" when betting with a cash-back bonus.

***: In my previous reply I forgot to mention, one major drawback of betting big, is that the casino may stop offering the bonus or label you a bonus abuser and not pay out (so check the bonus rules at the casino).

^^^: At least when your main goal is to maximize your weekly EV.

Also, you want a game with a high variance (standard deviation) and a low house edge.

In case, I didn't mention it before, the link below will give you an idea of what types of games fit this criteria (look for games with high standard deviation combined with low house edge) .

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

----------------------
Things I forgot to mention in my previous post:

Bank-roll:
My guess at bank-roll requirements, if I wanted to bet $1,000 on this per week, would be:

a) Up to $450,000 in reserve (if I didn't have a job)
or
b) Put aside up to $1,000 every week (after tax, and other living expenses)

Note: this is just a guess, someone else may tell you "better" bank roll recommendations.

-----------------
Blackjack (house edge)

Almost all standard games of Blackjack have a house edge of less than 0.7%, so go and see what "turnover commission" you can get for that (if any) as that could be a better bet^*^.

^*^: It is worth having a look, because about 2 years ago I managed to find a reputable casino that was offering 0.3% "turnover commission" on a game with a player edge of about 0.36% after the commission.
The game was standard blackjack, but they offered early surrender (they should have had late surrender, instead).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 10, 2019
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 1:24:18 AM permalink
thanks dude, but, how we get 0.36% player edge when we only get 0.3% turnover commission?
OnceDear
OnceDear
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February 11th, 2019 at 2:26:09 AM permalink
You are almost right. It gives you an edge, but only if the week over which they consider the rebate covers 1 bet, If within the week, you place a number of wagers, then each of those wagers is exposed to the true house edge multiple times. A session where you expose your bankroll multiple times has an effective hold percentage many times the house edge.
I have a similar situation with one casino, and it's not lucrative. Sorry to burst your bubble.
Also, of course, establish trust with them. check by actual testig, that you can reliably withdraw any funds.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 2:56:54 AM permalink
i think i just cannot simply bet all my bankroll every week, because they have terms and condition for bonus hunter

i think i have a wrong point of view.
lets say on a 0.5% HE of blackjack
in my opinion, if i can use my bankroll to get 5-10x turnover each bankroll using any progression betting (negative or positive i still dont know what is the best), theoretically, my bankroll can producing minimum of 3x TO that gives me 3x0.7% instead of 1x0.7% if i bet my entire bankroll.

if i always can have more than 3x bankroll TO, and yet not busting my account (sometimes win,sometime loss), am i getting more edge?



***
i just bust my 100 units bankroll betting on baccarat (bet selection follow last result)
using modified d'alembert step:
1 2 3 4 5
2 4 6 8 10
3 6 9 12 15
4 8 12 16 20
5 10 15 20 25
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:07:34 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

thanks dude, but, how we get 0.36% player edge when we only get 0.3% turnover commission?


The game was, 8 decks, early surrender, hit on soft 17, double after split, blackjack pays 3/2, can't remember the rest, but player edge was about 0.06% before the turnover commission (so add 0.3% to 0.06%).

NB: The game is not available anymore. but I managed to make $70,000+ before they found out this games' EV was not in the casino's favour.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:10:22 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet


...assuming i play baccarat with 1.2% house edge
i get 0.7% refund every time i bet (win or lose), so i think, the house edge is go down to 0.5%


What are the rules for the blackjack game at this casino, and what (if any) % refund do you get when you play blackjack?
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:14:21 AM permalink
How long it takes you to make 70k?

I dont really interested in Online BJ because each round takes more than 3 minutes per game because we must wait until all the player on the entire casino server complete the move (hit stand etc)

Games available for me:
Blackjack (i think card counting is possible) but the deck is cut half
Baccarat
Dragon tiger
Sicvo
Roulette
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:15:33 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

What are the rules for the blackjack game at this casino, and what (if any) % refund do you get when you play blackjack?



Refund is fix 0.7% all live casino games

FYI, there are some agent offering 1-1.1% turnover commission but they dont have loss refund offer
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:29:22 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

How long it takes you to make 70k?

I dont really interested in Online BJ because each round takes more than 3 minutes per game because we must wait until all the player on the entire casino server complete the move (hit stand etc)

Games available for me:
Blackjack (i think card counting is possible) but the deck is cut half
Baccarat
Dragon tiger
Sicvo
Roulette



Can't remember exactly (but it took less than a day), I was betting $2000 per hand @ 600+ hand per hour (table max was $10,000).

It seems like they are all live dealer games to me, right?
If you have a few friends with separate internet connections, then I would consider card counting for blackjack or Dragon tiger***

***: I don't know the card counting system for dragon tiger game, but the link below says that some of the side bets are "highly countable"

https://wizardofodds.com/games/dragon-tiger/
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:34:19 AM permalink
Some of my casino has a multitable feature so you can bet on multiple live table
I still dont know if card counting online worth the time invested in
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:34:22 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

Refund is fix 0.7% all live casino games

FYI, there are some agent offering 1-1.1% turnover commission but they dont have loss refund offer



If this is true, please tell me the rules for the BJ game.
I suspect it could be beatable for the basic strategy player @ 0.7% commission and almost definitely beatable for the 1-1.1% commission offer.

Also, please PM me the name of the casino, so I can have a look myself.

Thanks
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 6:23:29 AM permalink
okay.
i will pm you my casino list
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 11th, 2019 at 8:54:01 PM permalink
For now, i have found two agent that have the best offers for me
1. 0.7% TO commision + 10% weekly loss refund (3x loss TO wager), if our TO is not achieving 3x total weekly loss, we only get 7% loss refund

2. Straight 1.2% turnover commision
(0.7% direct rebates, 0.5% weekly)
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 12th, 2019 at 5:01:12 AM permalink
Why do I feel the end of this thread will be one of two things...

1. I couldn't get my money from them
2. The games were gaffed.



3. (Extremely unlikely). I found an advantage, played it for months, made money consistently, withdrew the money easily.
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 12th, 2019 at 7:50:05 AM permalink
1. This happen not often. One thing for sure, if i exploit for a long time, the agent will reduce the turnover commision
2. For now, i play RNG blackjack. I play the rng because i see the license is from isle of man.
I am down 50 unit after running about 500 hands, it this still normal distribution?
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 12th, 2019 at 9:38:34 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

1. This happen not often. One thing for sure, if i exploit for a long time, the agent will reduce the turnover commision
2. For now, i play RNG blackjack. I play the rng because i see the license is from isle of man.
I am down 50 unit after running about 500 hands, it this still normal distribution?



It is likely just bad luck. And not bad enough to prove it is a rigged game. But you will need to lose a lot of ‘units’ before you can be certain they are cheating. Is that your goal? Lose a boatload of money so you can affirmatively State they are a rogue casino?
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 12th, 2019 at 8:56:29 PM permalink
Currently losing 68 unit flat betting 740hands
I check the SD is 3.8 which is very unlikely
I am stop playing RNG casino’s while thinking for another method
Live BJ is about 30 hands /hr. Very consuming tine
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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February 13th, 2019 at 6:03:07 AM permalink
Quote: rajarolet

Currently losing 68 unit flat betting 740hands
I check the SD is 3.8 which is very unlikely
I am stop playing RNG casino’s while thinking for another method
Live BJ is about 30 hands /hr. Very consuming tine



Go back a few posts. Looks like my answer "2" is the winner!
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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February 13th, 2019 at 7:53:52 AM permalink
I don't know if the math and reasoning are correct , but if its good deal go for it; if its a great deal, the casino will be finding loopholes and hurdles.
rajarolet
rajarolet
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February 19th, 2019 at 3:53:30 AM permalink
currently i found one agent that have Microgaming table games in the website and giving me 1.3% cashback turnover

there is two best blackjack game in microgaming.
1. single deck classic blackjack 0.13% HE, single hand, no autoplay
2. 2 deck bonus blackjack 0.38%HE, multiple hand + autoplay expert feature

Now i am playing the 2nd option because i dont need to spend hours of playing and i can lower my bet unit (it run all day long, the speed is about 350 hands/hr)
i will get my first cashback tomorrow. been running about 3-4k hands, very small bet (about $0.5-$1 per unit)

I dont know how long i will taking advantage of this situation, but 0.7-1% turnover cashback is a normal promotion offer from agent.

I call them agent because gambling is illegal in my country, they dont host the game. I just deposit to get credit and play (microgaming, playtech live, sbobet, maxbet, etc)
then if i win, i can withdraw from my account. So i called them "agent" because they are not the owner of the game / sportbook website
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