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Dalex64
Dalex64
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February 10th, 2019 at 5:49:43 PM permalink
Ok maybe a different explanation on my original approach


Buy it from the seller for one cent less than he is asking, or, offer as much as you can if you are in the unfortunate ppsition of making the first offer.

This will maximize your chances of attracting another "fish" to buy from you, as there will still be a lot of room in price for your customer to sell to someone else, until the drop dead point of 2 cents.

So, a logician should want to buy it from you for one cent less than you paid for it, which would make the net cost to me only one cent still, but at that point I have also gotten a wish out of it.

Still, the more pennies above 2 cents that are available, the better the chance you have of selling it and not going to hell.

So, my answer is - pay as much as you can, and sell it for one cent less than that, which using my strategy, the next logician should be happy to pay that much.


Hopefully that was a little more specific, and not just a rehash of my first answer in the thread.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 10th, 2019 at 8:34:29 PM permalink
Let me ask this, what would happen if you bought the bottle for two cents?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
unJon
unJon 
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Thanks for this post from:
RS
February 10th, 2019 at 8:44:43 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Let me ask this, what would happen if you bought the bottle for two cents?

You’d make a wish, not find anyone to sell it to and then go to hell. Just like RS said in his first post in this thread. And so on all the way to any amount of cents for the bottle by backwards induction.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
RS
RS
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February 10th, 2019 at 10:45:53 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

You’d make a wish, not find anyone to sell it to and then go to hell. Just like RS said in his first post in this thread. And so on all the way to any amount of cents for the bottle by backwards induction.


Wizard probably has me blocked I bet. :-)

And since when do genies live in bottles? They live in lamps!
нет сговор. нет непроходимость. полный освобождение от ответственности.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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February 11th, 2019 at 3:07:10 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888


My answer is $273,750. The explanation follows.

Assume that all logicians will sell the bottle for 1 penny less than what they bought it for, and realize that all other logicians will do that.

Now a logician will be willing to buy the bottle if they feel that there will be enough owners (at one penny less on each sale) such that there is a very high chance that at least one of the owners will either drop dead or be in a fatal accident prior to being able to sell it.

Actuarial tables report that a 20 year old has a chance of 1 in 365,000 (approximately) of dieing on any given day between his 20th and 21st birthday. People older than 20 have a higher chance than that, so 1 in 365,000 is a conservative number. If there are 25 times 365,000 owners, then there will be (approximately) a 5-sigma probability that one of the 9,125,000 owners will die within one day of buying the bottle - and before they can re-sell the bottle.

So, logicians realize that if the number of possible owners is >9,125,000 then a logician will feel comfortable in buying the bottle.

I think there needs to 3 x 9,125,000 so that 9,125,000 logicians can buy the bottle without feeling that logicians might avoid purchasing the bottle, so that one unlucky logician of the 9,125,000 will die suddenly from a heart attack, stroke, card accident, fall, mugging, etc before reaching a price point at which logicians start to feel wary about the ability to resell the bottle. So 3 x 9,125,000 x $0.01 = $273,750 might be a plausible lowest price for buying the bottle.

I realize the exact values of the numbers are a little bit hokey, but they serve to illustrate the logic. With the prospect of more than 27 million re-sales of the bottle being possible, no one needs to worry about a market reluctance to buy and re-sell the bottle because everyone realizes that one unlucky owner will die suddenly before he can resell well before it reaches the point where prospective buyers become concerned about whether other logicians will be concerned about their ability to re-sell.

The risk exposure of any logician is simply that he will die from accidental or medical causes almost immediately after buying the bottle and thus go to Hell for no good reason. That risk is really < 1 in 1,000,000 for most age groups and thus would be a gamble that any logical person would take.



The above was a serious attempt to solve the problem -or at least to advance towards a solution. I was hoping for a comment, so this is a shameless bump.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 11th, 2019 at 4:11:24 PM permalink
Okay, I think RS gets credit for being the first with the correct answer. I think his correct answer got lost with all the others who nit-picked the wording of the question.

As to Gordon's wacky answer, I think we can quit hiding it and discuss openly. That was a pretty good idea. I would simplify it to make a Ponzi scheme out of it. As long as new logicians keep being born, there will always be one to sell to. However, if the price kept going down, eventually you'd have a problem of the price dropping to a penny and somebody going to hell.

If we start it at $100,000, we could have 10 millions wishes granted. Assuming it changes hands every day, it could go 27,397 years before reaching zero.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 11th, 2019 at 6:19:05 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Quote: gordonm888


My answer is $273,750. The explanation follows.

Assume that all logicians will sell the bottle for 1 penny less than what they bought it for, and realize that all other logicians will do that.

Now a logician will be willing to buy the bottle if they feel that there will be enough owners (at one penny less on each sale) such that there is a very high chance that at least one of the owners will either drop dead or be in a fatal accident prior to being able to sell it.

Actuarial tables report that a 20 year old has a chance of 1 in 365,000 (approximately) of dieing on any given day between his 20th and 21st birthday. People older than 20 have a higher chance than that, so 1 in 365,000 is a conservative number. If there are 25 times 365,000 owners, then there will be (approximately) a 5-sigma probability that one of the 9,125,000 owners will die within one day of buying the bottle - and before they can re-sell the bottle.

So, logicians realize that if the number of possible owners is >9,125,000 then a logician will feel comfortable in buying the bottle.

I think there needs to 3 x 9,125,000 so that 9,125,000 logicians can buy the bottle without feeling that logicians might avoid purchasing the bottle, so that one unlucky logician of the 9,125,000 will die suddenly from a heart attack, stroke, card accident, fall, mugging, etc before reaching a price point at which logicians start to feel wary about the ability to resell the bottle. So 3 x 9,125,000 x $0.01 = $273,750 might be a plausible lowest price for buying the bottle.

I realize the exact values of the numbers are a little bit hokey, but they serve to illustrate the logic. With the prospect of more than 27 million re-sales of the bottle being possible, no one needs to worry about a market reluctance to buy and re-sell the bottle because everyone realizes that one unlucky owner will die suddenly before he can resell well before it reaches the point where prospective buyers become concerned about whether other logicians will be concerned about their ability to re-sell.

The risk exposure of any logician is simply that he will die from accidental or medical causes almost immediately after buying the bottle and thus go to Hell for no good reason. That risk is really < 1 in 1,000,000 for most age groups and thus would be a gamble that any logical person would take.



The above was a serious attempt to solve the problem -or at least to advance towards a solution. I was hoping for a comment, so this is a shameless bump.



I like gordons answer more than RS. Eventually, someone will die with the genie.

Couldn’t you sell it to someone who was terminally ill?
unJon
unJon 
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February 11th, 2019 at 6:27:06 PM permalink
So it turns out this is the basis for a novel by Robert Louis Stevenson called the Bottle Imp. Anyone read?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bottle_Imp
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
RS
RS
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February 11th, 2019 at 6:35:16 PM permalink
The problem is about heaven vs hell, not dying vs not dying. Okay I worded that wonkily, it should be read as "The problem is about heaven vs hell, not dying vs not-dying." Everyone is going to die eventually, regardless. I don't think going to hell sounds that much more appealing if you're gonna go in 1 week versus 100 years.

Unless of course, the logic is, "I only have a 0.00000x% chance of dying, so I can probably pawn this sucker off on some sucker who's gonna drop dead randomly, so I'll be chilling. RIP forever to that guy though, pce." ?

But then again -- counter argument -- is it with a 0.000x% or whatever chance of dropping dead randomly and going to hell for all of eternity, just to get a wish? I would say no, it's not.
нет сговор. нет непроходимость. полный освобождение от ответственности.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 11th, 2019 at 6:51:15 PM permalink
Ok, I may have misinterpreted the problem.

If you die before you have sold and before a year, you still go to hell?

Then RS is correct.

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