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Well, I read the title as 'We see it in stages'. But then 'wooosh' it flew straight over my head. Seems the OP is constructing some sort of probability chart and looking for something, zod knows what, in what it reveals.Quote: FleaStiffI've just logged in and read this. Maybe I'm drunk. I don't know. I'll be back much later and try to make sense of these fragments.
It amazes me how such complexity is woven around the analysis of the game of roulette. Almost swirls around like smoke and mirrors.
I do note that the OP asks..." Roulette is a one-step game or can you use information about previous games?
Perhaps there is choice?"
Well, if that means what I think it means, I'd like to reassure him that he cannot use information about previous games.
I also suggest that he weaves some of that minty green zero magic into his tapestry of analysis. So far he seems to think that the outcomes of the 'even money bets' are a binary choice. They are not, as anyone who ever landed a green would point out.
Quote: evsDear OnceDear
Probability theory is a mathematical science that studies the regularities of mass random phenomena (events). Probability theory deals with events that have a mass character. This means that this set of conditions can be reproduced an unlimited number of times. Each such realization of a given set of conditions is called a test (or experience). Experience has shown that the frequency of a random event is stable in repeated tests.The property of frequency stability is a common property of mass random events, namely, there is always a number to which the frequency of occurrence of this event approaches, little different from it with a large number of tests.The link between an abstract measure and the probability that expresses the degree of possibility of an event is the frequency of its observation.
Events are independent and random! The frequency of events is not random in certain test areas!
If each test is considered as the only one then the probability theory does not work!
You can't beat roulette with a fair wheel and game. End of observation and theory.
Seems like you might be able to count cards pretty well. You might want to change games.
ZCore13
Dear EVS,Quote: evsDear OnceDear
Probability theory is a mathematical science that studies the regularities of mass random phenomena (events). Probability theory deals with events that have a mass character. This means that this set of conditions can be reproduced an unlimited number of times. Each such realization of a given set of conditions is called a test (or experience). Experience has shown that the frequency of a random event is stable in repeated tests.The property of frequency stability is a common property of mass random events, namely, there is always a number to which the frequency of occurrence of this event approaches, little different from it with a large number of tests.The link between an abstract measure and the probability that expresses the degree of possibility of an event is the frequency of its observation.
Events are independent and random! The frequency of events is not random in certain test areas!
If each test is considered as the only one then the probability theory does not work!
I do have some knowledge of probability theory. You strongly imply that 'probability theory' only applies to the smooth distributions that are encountered when you observe large numbers of events. Indeed your distribution curves are nice and smooth when you have ever increasing sample size. That is the branch known as 'Continuous Probability Theory'. You are right that Continuous probability Theory does not apply to a finite number of discrete events ( or one ). But there is the branch called 'Discrete Probability Theory' that absolutely does apply to individual or finite numbers of events.
With your last sentence. With one event, one coin toss for example, you observe probability at its most discrete or granular. No smooth distribution with one binary event. It doesn't mean that 'probability theory' doesn't work. It just means that it is inappropriate to expect a non-quantised smoothed out 'continuous' distribution.
Anyway, Where are you trying to go with this? Are you just trying to answer some homework question or are you trying to develop some analytical process for beating a real world game like roulette?
Erm.... What is this? You smoothly rose? What your stack of chips?Quote: evsDear Zcore13
I played 54 hours without interruption and all the time smoothly rose. the dealer threw the ball at me 3 times, and hit me on the head once when I was alone at the table very quickly, almost without interruption,spinning roulette told me the theory of probability, almost every one of them asked me how I play. I think about what I'm doing.
Spinning roulette told you a theory? All it ever tells me is that I need to go back to the ATM.
Thinking about what you are doing at roulette is meaningless.
I think the binary part is 'win' or 'lose',Quote: OnceDearI also suggest that he weaves some of that minty green zero magic into his tapestry of analysis. So far he seems to think that the outcomes of the 'even money bets' are a binary choice. They are not, as anyone who ever landed a green would point out.
Quote: evs1) If the conditions do not change and information about previous games can not be used to correct strategies, the game is reduced to a one-step game.
On the work with the process:
A)"Classic" - the process is divided into fragments of a given length. The calculation for the next fragment is performed without using information about past fragments. There is a frequency of events.All events are equally probable.The sum of equally distributed random variables with a large number of steps is close to the Gaussian distribution.
B)" Flow"- the process is not split, it continues with the same starting point. The sum of equally distributed random variables with a large number of steps is close to the Gaussian distribution. There is a frequency of events.Certain events have different probabilities:in each period, half of the series (of the same characters) must have a length one.("1"; "0"), one quarter should have a length of two ("11"; "00"), one-eighth should have a length three ("111"; "000") and so on.
Violation of the integrity of the binary sequence by dividing into fragments leads to loss of its properties, loss of proportions.
Roulette is a one-step game or can you use information about previous games?
Perhaps there is choice?
What seems to have happened here is...
evs copied and pasted from some Roulette system that is gibberish. He's trying to sort it out. I think the only part he wrote is what I bolded above, and that's his question.
I could be wrong.
(Edit: looks like it's the translator evs is using that made gibberish out of this. Regardless...)
evs.
Roulette is a "one-step" game. You bet. The ball lands. Each result is independent of the last one.
A person's brain wants to see patterns and trends. People selling Roulette systems encourage this, make claims they can be identified, and the next spin predicted to give you an edge.
It's a lie. They can make it look simple, or baffle you with stuff like you quoted to make it look complicated, but there are only a few ways to do this, and they all involve cheating or mechanical error on a particular wheel.
On a fair wheel, operating (and operated) properly, there is no system that will give you an edge. Anyone telling you different is trying to con you into buying something worthless.
CAN you use previous results? Sure, you can track them if you find it entertaining. Will it help you win? No.
I use math and not a game system! Roulette is a "one-step" game. You bet. The ball lands. Each result is independent of the last one. I say also. Read the following carefully! But the frequency is kept within three times the standard deviation.
You CAN use maths to increase your probability of leaving the casino with a profit. But always with the risk of losing an awful loss.Quote: evsDear beachbumbabs
I use math and not a game system! Roulette is a "one-step" game. You bet. The ball lands. Each result is independent of the last one. I say also. Read the following carefully! But the frequency is kept within three times the standard deviation.
If you want to be almost certain of massive profit you can engineer your bet quite simply. Just table max / 36 on 35 of the 38 numbers. Simple. You have 92% probability of winning. Whoop Whoop. If you lose that spin, just pop down 36 times as much. What could possibly go wrong.
Your 'using math' is bunk.
Quote: evsDear beachbumbabs
I use math and not a game system! Roulette is a "one-step" game. You bet. The ball lands. Each result is independent of the last one. I say also. Read the following carefully! But the frequency is kept within three times the standard deviation.
Math will not help you. 5.26% HE on all but one bet (the basket). Frequency will not help you with independent results. You lose over time because any lost bets are lost 100%, but when you win, they pay you less than true odds.
Quote: evsEnough! I only see the monologue! you don't have to teach me math. I have two degrees. there is no understanding. possible translation problems.
You're right. I'm not seeing your point, sorry.
Are you applying Bayes theorem here? Given that the historical distribution is at 2.5 standard deviations, what is the probability that it will get to 3 standard deviations? Etc.Quote: evsDear beachbumbabs
I use math and not a game system! Roulette is a "one-step" game. You bet. The ball lands. Each result is independent of the last one. I say also. Read the following carefully! But the frequency is kept within three times the standard deviation.
Quote: unJonAre you applying Bayes theorem here? Given that the historical distribution is at 2.5 standard deviations, what is the probability that it will get to 3 standard deviations? Etc.
what dont you people understand about this. well im going to tell you what you dont understand.
there are two types of casino games. skill and chance. casinos are having a hard time promoting games of skill but from what ive read about in another thread people are warming up to them.
ROULETTE IS A GAME OF CHANCE.
there is nothing YOU can do to influence the ball. That would be UNFAIR. You haveing a skill that allows you to tip the game in your favor is not FAIR to everyone else around you, so they might make you think you are in control by winning, but that is the GAMBLERS FALLACY.
I say play for a year and come back to us. then report on how great you did.
Quote: evsEnough! I only see the monologue! you don't have to teach me math. I have two degrees. there is no understanding. possible translation problems.
Wow congratulations I didnt know having 2 degrees makes you smart. Why do people think they are better than others if they have a degree?
Reread my post. We aren’t disagreeing. Or maybe you don’t know what Bayes thereom is?Quote: heatmapwhat dont you people understand about this. well im going to tell you what you dont understand.
there are two types of casino games. skill and chance. casinos are having a hard time promoting games of skill but from what ive read about in another thread people are warming up to them.
ROULETTE IS A GAME OF CHANCE.
there is nothing YOU can do to influence the ball. That would be UNFAIR. You haveing a skill that allows you to tip the game in your favor is not FAIR to everyone else around you, so they might make you think you are in control by winning, but that is the GAMBLERS FALLACY.
I say play for a year and come back to us. then report on how great you did.
ETA: I’ll give you a hint, if the historical distribution of the wheel is 2.5 std, the probability of getting to 3 std is 0.5 std
