PeterJF
PeterJF
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April 1st, 2018 at 6:32:45 PM permalink
I have been searching on the internet for an answer to my question about the probabilities of a certain number of cards being deal in a heads up situation with one player and the dealer.
I am interested in if any one can use a Blackjack calculator to do this. The data must be there in these calculators but the one I have access to does not bring this out.
The probabilities I am after is what I the probability of 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. 10. 11,12,13,14 and say 15 cards or more being dealt in the various combinations between the dealer and the player. In reality the cut off point may be much lower than 15 of course as it is very unlikely there would be so many cards. But I put it there as a maximum, even though maximum may be less than that and we can then see what it is.
From study of some answers on another forum, I noted that the probabilities can depend on the count. So lets say the average with a neutral 10's count and then +/- 10 of that assuming say 6-deck 75 percent penetration or whatever other details you think are appropriate to assign to show any degree of significant variation in the average.
I hope that is not too difficult a question to ask the Wizard of Odds!
gordonm888
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gordonm888
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April 1st, 2018 at 6:50:51 PM permalink
Edit: deleted wrong answer

2nd edit: Everything you are requesting is on this site here cards per round as a function of count
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Apr 1, 2018
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ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 1st, 2018 at 6:52:42 PM permalink
Too many variables to give any simple answers.
How many decks?
Does the dealer hit or stand on Soft 17?
Can you resplit? If so, how many times? Does this include Aces?
Can you double after splitting?
michael99000
michael99000
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April 1st, 2018 at 9:40:33 PM permalink
I believe the most number of cards the dealer can take in a S17 game is 12, as follows ...

A A A A A A 6 A A A A A
PeterJF
PeterJF
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April 2nd, 2018 at 8:05:15 PM permalink
Thanks for your reply but that is the information I did find from general google search... on the face of it seems to answer my question. However it really doesn't... I guess what I am looking for is more rightly called a frequency distribution. That is expressed in a percentage for each number of cards on the table (joint cards), not just the average figure of approx. 2.7 (although to get that figure then the frequency distribution will have been calculated... or a least the data to be able to do that will have been generated, even if not used. But the make-up data is not there in that book or on that site for me unfortunately, I was hopeful it would be when I first saw it. I ordered the books on Amazon anyway, as they seem to give a lot of data, but not what I am looking for.

As an example to clarify I would expect something as per follows (although this is just made up data):

4 cards (2 dealer and 2 player): 20%
5 cards (2 dealer and 3 player, or 3 dealer and 2 player): 30%
6 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 25%
7 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 8%
8 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 5%
9 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 4%
10 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 3%
11 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 2%
12 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 1%
13 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 0.75%
14 cards (various dealer player combinations etc): 0.5%
15 cards + (various dealer player combinations etc): 0.75%

I hope the example above clarifies the request.

Thanks to those replying for their interest in answering this question.
PeterJF
PeterJF
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April 2nd, 2018 at 8:07:36 PM permalink
OK thanks Michael, so there can in fact be more than 15 cards between dealer and player, so a calculation up to 15 cards is reasonable then. I elaborate more on my actual question in a reply just sent out. Hope the question is then more clear.
PeterJF
PeterJF
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April 2nd, 2018 at 8:11:38 PM permalink
Hi Don, to narrow it down then I would say typical 6 decks with Las Vegas rules: Double any two cards, double after split allowed, re-split allowed (say twice), split aces only once. no surrender, hit soft 17.
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