Keno variation

Hi, i found casino that pays 15 for 2of2 balls and 1 for 1of 2 but still can't capitalize my advantage. Over 300 bets with no 2of2 - i wonder if the soft is manipulated or just bad variation. Other day i bet over 3000 bets at 50cents , but just 10$ win?
Do you think the soft is manipulated?

Quote: justreg76

Hi, i found casino that pays 15 for 2of2 balls and 1 for 1of 2 but still can't capitalize my advantage. Over 300 bets with no 2of2 - i wonder if the soft is manipulated or just bad variation. Other day i bet over 3000 bets at 50cents , but just 10$ win?
Do you think the soft is manipulated?

According to:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/

The probability of getting 2/2 on any one play is 0.060126582278481, so we will round that to .06013, making the probability of not hitting that .93987.

We can go here:

http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html

And run a Binomial Distribution on that bad boy:

The probability of 300 bets without a hit is: 8.324e-9

That's scientific notation for, "Shouldn't happen." Can you get a play log? Are you sure of 300 plays?

Doing it this way:

(.93987)^300 = 8.32407976e-9

Same result.

That paytable, if fair, would also return 128.16%, so if it looks too good to be true...

I think you would not be wrong to post the name of the casino if you are comfortable doing that.

If it is a land-based casino and not an online one, it's probably just a Class II machine.

It is online casino with a bad reputation . I saw that they have wrong paytable and gave them a try with small amount of cash just for fun. After first deposit - the math was ok and the winings too. I have made cashout (lucky me) and then the RNG decided to switch on his own weird life.
Several days I was break even, and the end was from 100$ to 0$ at 30cents with no 2/2

Online casinos with bad reputations usually get them for a reason. It is up to you whether or not you want to say which one, but doing so would certainly make that casino's reputation worse. Although, if you think they could identify you because of your play (or maybe you used the same handle) then I could see why you wouldn't want to do that.

When you want to post that casino's information, if you ever do, then it will be a benefit to players who play online. In the meantime, you could always visit our other site:

https://latestcasinobonuses.com/

And leave that casino a bad review with a different handle than you used at the casino if it is listed there. If nothing else, that will at least reduce their average score. Also, there might be a page for that casino with a casino rep, and then you could make your accusations directly in that thread.

Anyway, nothing mathematically is impossible...but 300 plays without a 2/2 on Keno is about as close to impossible as you are going to get if it happened naturally.

Your edge is also 28.16%. If you ran 3,000 plays at $0.50, your expectation would be:

1500 * .2816 = +$422.40.

I'll run a simulation at beating bonuses, give me a minute, it'll be my next post.

I can tell you the casino name in private message. Just want to see if I can win against the software with perfect odds before the game become public.

Okay, so I went to Beating Bonuses:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm

They do not have a pre-program for Keno on that simulator, so what I did was I clicked, "Other," and then put in the paytable rounding the probability that I got from our Odds site:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/

To the fifth decimal place. It returned a Player Advantage of over 28%, which is correct.

If you want to do it yourself, then make sure to click:

Quote:

Payouts +1 (VP)

Because clicking that transfers pays to a, "For one," basis, which is how machines operate. Alternatively, you could not click that and just change the pays to -1, 0 and 14, respectively.

It gave me an advantage of 28.17%, but that's rounding, and close enough for these purposes.

You did 3,000 plays, so I put the following information:

Deposit: 3000 (It really doesn't matter what you put, you just don't want to put a small enough number that busting out is possible)
Bonus: 0
Wagering: 3000 (Total Bets)
Bet Size: 1 (One Unit)
Simulations: 10,000 (Default)

RESULTS:

Average Return: 843.99 Units (About $422 based on $0.50 bets)
Minimum Return: +159.00 Units (About $79.50)
Maximum Return: 1616 Units ($808)

Probability of Gain-100%
Probability of Bust-0% (Partially because I did 3,000 Units)

---I ran it a few more times, but the results are similar enough that it's not worth typing.

If I change the Deposit to 200 ($100 at $0.50 bets) and go 3,000 plays for 10,000 simulations:

Average Return: 846.25 Units (About $423)
Minimum Return: +170 Units (About $85)
Maximum Return: 1527 Units (Maximum Return in 10,000 trials is going to vary pretty wildly)

Probability of Gain-100%

I ran simulations of 100,000 five different times and here are the worst results:

1. +9 Units, Probability of Gain-100%
2. -200 Units, Probability of BUST .002%. As a decimal, that is .00002, which means two out of one-hundred thousand.
3. -200 Units, Probability of BUST .001%. One of our one hundred thousand busted.
4. -200 Units, Probability of BUST .001%. One of one hundred thousand.
5. -200 Units, Probability of BUST .001%. One of one hundred thousand.

Overall, we ran 500,000 simulations the second set and five people, 1 in 100,000, busted.

That in itself means your results are theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. Combined with missing 300 2/2 in a row, it's just ridiculous.

Not impossible, but darn close. Can you get play logs? Feel free to link anyone at that casino to this analysis if you want to.

Quote: justreg76

I can tell you the casino name in private message. Just want to see if I can win against the software with perfect odds before the game become public.

There is no point in doing that because I cannot share information from a private message.

200 units basically should put you very close to invincibility on that game. Your results were almost impossible.

thanks

The game is x keno at or 1xbet - the same platform.
I think it is manipulated - 10 days 8 hours per day with an auto clicking bot and break even results. I have no time to waste anymore