Instant 18
Thanks!
https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
Add up the expectations for each hand, and it looks like a good positive bet.
Quote: Instanto18There is a new casino game seen at Santa Fe Station. The name of the game is 'Instant 18'. This is a bet where the player effectively buys the blackjack hand of 18, and never receives cards, just automatically receives the hand of 18. The way it is set up at Santa Fe, you must play blackjack as well, so that if you play $5 on BJ, and $5 on instant 18, you now have two hands. One is played out as normal, and the other, you do not receive cards for it, but already have 18. I was wondering your thoughts on this, and if you could work out the math? While I was playing there, the dealers were remarking, "this game they may have screwed up on! Ill be bringing my whole family down for this one!" I am sure that there is not a mathematical error, but what is the house advantage? PS. Love the site, been using it forever, and is the best on gambling out there.
Thanks!
Exactly what are the rules and payoffs for the side bet?
Quote: teddysHow funny! We were just having a discussion on this site about how much the hand of 18 is worth. I think we determined that it is a net loser overall, when you cannot double or split it. But I'd imagine the house edge is very small for a side bet. MathExtremist, are you getting ideas from your games from threads here?
I sure hope not. :)
Actually, the table of statistics I was looking for just the other day would answer this question directly. However, you can short-cut the problem by looking at dealer final-hand totals, e.g.
https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2b.html
I just called over to Santa Fe Station and asked the pit about the game. He said it was exactly like getting a blackjack hand of 18, just with no cards and you automatically stand. So you win if the dealer gets 17 or busts, push if the dealer has 18, and lose if the dealer has 19-21. Based on that, and using the tables at the URL above, the bet has a small edge (it varies by # decks and H17/S17). 6 decks, H17 gives an edge of 2.04%. 6 decks, S17 has an edge of 0.64%.
| Decks | S17 | H17 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | -0.003106 | -0.016454 |
| 2 | -0.005091 | -0.018799 |
| 3 | -0.005752 | -0.019578 |
| 4 | -0.006080 | -0.019968 |
| 5 | -0.006278 | -0.020201 |
| 6 | -0.006410 | -0.020358 |
| 7 | -0.006503 | -0.020468 |
| 8 | -0.006573 | -0.020552 |
1. Holy crap, this has to be TERRIBLE for the player.
1A. If it wasn't at least LOUSY for the player, the casino would never offer it.
2. Only the completely brain-dead will want to play this game. It's right down there with Casino War.
Quote: mkl654321My first two reactions were:
1. Holy crap, this has to be TERRIBLE for the player.
1A. If it wasn't at least LOUSY for the player, the casino would never offer it.
2. Only the completely brain-dead will want to play this game. It's right down there with Casino War.
There are much worse bets in the casino. Also remember the player has to play a regular blackjack bet too. I think you're being a bit harsh.
Quote: DJTeddyBearI guess the obvious question for the gullible folks who love a sucker bet: Does this mean you can take insurance on both bets?
I don't see why not. Insurance is a much worse bet than the Instant 18 bet by itself.
Quote: thecesspitThis would look to be 0.4739 :
https://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
Add up the expectations for each hand, and it looks like a good positive bet.
Okay how did I screw up? I summed the player expectations for standing on 18 from the numbers and got : 0.4379. I should of divided that by 13, for the per hand advantage, I guess, but that still makes 0.03365 for S17 an infinite decks. Is it the infinite deck piece?
Cheers....
Quote: thecesspitOkay how did I screw up? I summed the player expectations for standing on 18 from the numbers and got : 0.4379. I should of divided that by 13, for the per hand advantage, I guess, but that still makes 0.03365 for S17 an infinite decks. Is it the infinite deck piece?
Cheers....
I think, those expectations are conditional on dealer not having a blackjack. Factoring that in makes it 0.0137.
Now, THIS, must be the infinite deck piece :)
Quote: teddysInteresting. I'd have to disagree that this bet is horrible for the player. Most side bets are *much* worse. The better question is how will this bet fare at Santa Fe and other places. Most people seem to loooove the hand of 18 from my experience. (Witness people standing on A-7 against a 9 or 10, and not splitting 9s). But won't the house edge make itself very apparent over time on an even-money side bet? Plus, it seems very boring. I don't give it much chance of success. I predict it gone from the Santa Fe within a month or two if this is a trial run.
Well, sure, compared to side bets in other games, it's better--but at least all of those other side bets bring some chance of a high payout. And compared to the basic blackjack bet, this side bet stinks, in terms of house PC. Usually what you get in return for the house edge is either some kind of interest or excitement, and/or the possibility of a high payout. This side bet has neither.
It's just another example of how the casinos would rather just lift the money out of your pocket and be done with it, without the hassle of having to deal cards or spin a wheel or use electricity or anything like that. You just get dealt an automatically losing hand (mathematically), then watch and hope. Whee!
(Apropos of the above, this side bet also seems very Stationesque---boring AND unwinnable.)
And most side bets are only $1.Quote: teddysMost side bets are *much* worse.
There's only one reason most side bets are $1: To make it cheap enough so that people will play it even though it's a terrible bet.
If thE Instant 18 bet is optional, but must be the same as the regular bet, there'd be only one reason: It doesn't make the casino enough money to be offered at a discount.
Based on that logic alone, I'd assume that this is not a bad bet.
Of course, I'd also know that there is no way that a casino will offer a bet, for ANY price, that had a smaller edge than the regular game on that table.
So I wouldn't play it.
Quote: Instanto18There is a new casino game seen at Santa Fe Station. The name of the game is 'Instant 18'. This is a bet where the player effectively buys the blackjack hand of 18, and never receives cards, just automatically receives the hand of 18. The way it is set up at Santa Fe, you must play blackjack as well, so that if you play $5 on BJ, and $5 on instant 18, you now have two hands. One is played out as normal, and the other, you do not receive cards for it, but already have 18. I was wondering your thoughts on this, and if you could work out the math? While I was playing there, the dealers were remarking, "this game they may have screwed up on! Ill be bringing my whole family down for this one!" I am sure that there is not a mathematical error, but what is the house advantage? PS. Love the site, been using it forever, and is the best on gambling out there.
Thanks!
Is "Instant 18" an optional side bet? That is, may the player make only the regular blackjack bet?
Quote: ChesterDogIs "Instant 18" an optional side bet? That is, may the player make only the regular blackjack bet?
The original poster said, "The way it is set up at Santa Fe, you must play blackjack as well, so that if you play $5 on BJ, and $5 on instant 18, you now have two hands." I can't confirm or deny that. I almost never go to the Santa Fe.
What's funny is I practically start to cheer when I am dealt 18 in BJ. intuition fails again!
Quote: odiousgambit
What's funny is I practically start to cheer when I am dealt 18 in BJ. intuition fails again!
You should, unless the dealer has 9,10 or A.
Except...
The second sentence in the first paragraph is either incomplete or has a grammar error:
Quote:I think a lot of players would say, thinking that 18 is good enough.
Quote: odiousgambitit doesn't have the allure of the side bets you see in, say, Pai Gow Poker, where you stand to win a lot of money if you hit. That makes it a bit odd to me.
What's funny is I practically start to cheer when I am dealt 18 in BJ. intuition fails again!
What is happening is that while 18 is an above average hand, you can't double down on it or split it (in this game), so it's worth less than an 18 would be in regular blackjack, where sometimes it would be in the form of a splittable 99 or a double down-able A7.
Quote: mkl654321What is happening is that while 18 is an above average hand, you can't double down on it or split it (in this game), so it's worth less than an 18 would be in regular blackjack, where sometimes it would be in the form of a splittable 99 or a double down-able A7.
If you don't count hands where the dealer busts, or has blackjack, his average points will be 18.84, when the dealer stands on soft 17. Basically, an 18 is not that good. That is also worth remembering when you have a soft 18 against a dealer 9, 10, or ace.
