Do I Come Out On Top With This Casino Promotion?
Buyin for $300 cash and you get $300 in promo chips (not cashable) and $40 additional free play chips. The free play chips are one and done meaning whether our bet wins or loses they take it away.
Playing baccarat and betting on banker only with a house edge of 1.06%, I would like an answer, preferably from the wizard on whether or not I actually come out on top after playing all of my $300 promo chips.
Thank you!
Let's not talk about variance and all that. We know there will be swings on any given day. This question is assuming I take advantage of this promotion over the long haul.
I.E. you buy in for $300... get $300 in promo chips... say you go place a $300 bet and win... If they just replace the promo chips then you just exposed your money AND won the $300 bet, but you still only have $300 you can cash out. Basically you bet $300 and if you lose, you lose $300... if you win, you get 0 even because your prize is converting the promo to real chips.
Ah, so you get to KEEP the $300 promo chips and you get paid with real chips? Then that's not too bad.Quote: DonnieeYes. If you win the bet you are paid $300 real chips but are stuck with your initial $300 promo chips.
Rounding, its a total of $312 in value .- tipQuote: DonnieeExactly. You play them until you lose them. The house edge for banker bets are only 1.06% so I think the extra $40 free play is enough to overcome it. My question is...how much?
So in playing your $300 (required) and your $40 FP you can expect to lose about $3.50 total in negative expectation... but you're getting $40 extra, so you'd stand to make like $36.50 on your $300 investment... 12.2% edge. If the FP chips get replaced then that will drive the value down to about $16.50.
p.s. there may be other better ways to play this, just throwing out some easy numbers =P.
I would like to move onto the topic of better ways to play these chips if possible.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjW16rWhOTUAhUM7IMKHWQqBVcQFghKMAg&usg=AFQjCNEpbBbsO_mDOP1N7CL8BarWMx4CVA
The promo chips are worth about $19
= $312
Assuming you can do it multiple times, I wouldn't just go in and bet your $300 NN and the $40 in promo chips at once and then walk out. They may not like what you are doing and get rid of you or just end it.
I would bring some friends, make a deal, you put up all the money and take all the risk, and pay them a % of whenever they win.
I cant imagine if this is the good daily/weekly it will last too long.
Quote: DonnieeThank you for your detailed explanation Romes. However, as mentioned in my initial post the $40 free play chips are one and done. They take it whether you win or lose the bet. If you win the $40 bet, you get paid $40 but they take the free play chips so we are left with $40. The bets can also be placed in increments of $5. Please go ahead and calculate my edge accordingly.
I would like to move onto the topic of better ways to play these chips if possible.
Single zero roulette is your best bet for the free play chip. Blackjack is best for the $300 in promo chips. Refer to page 6 of the link I provided.
I have one other concern. I do not gamble $300 on a single wager. In fact, I do just the opposite and grind out my money with some negative progresssion bets. Does it matter how we play our promo chips? Are there better or worse ways to play it?
Quote: DonnieeAre you suggesting a flat bet of $5 table minimum on a continuous shuffler machine?
If you can get that with decent rules (no 6:5), yes. Here's the link again.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjW16rWhOTUAhUM7IMKHWQqBVcQFghKMAg&usg=AFQjCNEpbBbsO_mDOP1N7CL8BarWMx4CVA
Not if I understand what you are saying. It's obvious I don't. I was assuming you got $300 extra in NN and $40 in promo chips.Quote: DonnieeSo a profit of $12 every buy in would be the answer to my question. Thank you!
I have one other concern. I do not gamble $300 on a single wager. In fact, I do just the opposite and grind out my money with some negative progresssion bets. Does it matter how we play our promo chips? Are there better or worse ways to play it?
$12 in value sounds good.
Quote: AxelWolfNot if I understand what you are saying. It's obvious I don't. I was assuming you got $300 extra in NN and $40 in promo chips.
He gets $300 in NN (play till lost, keep on win) and $40 in free bets (taken on win or loss).
Quote: IbeatyouracesHe gets $300 in NN (play till lost, keep on win) and $40 in free bets (taken on win or loss).
Wishful thinking on my part. So then on Bac he should be losing $7 on the NN and gaining $19 on the promo with a value of $12
Quote: IbeatyouracesThe promo chips should be broken down to the smallest value you can make them and grind them at blackjack.
Why is this? My intuition is that this would force you to expose yourself to the house edge twice as much. If you bet it all on the don't pass, that would mean a loss of ~$4.23 (assuming it just stays out there on a 12). But if you made 60 $5 bets on it, you would lose that ~$4.23 and still have to keep making more bets against a house edge. Now if you can use them on odds at the craps table that would be the best
Quote: TomGWhy is this? My intuition is that this would force you to expose yourself to the house edge twice as much. If you bet it all on the don't pass, that would mean a loss of ~$4.23 (assuming it just stays out there on a 12). But if you made 60 $5 bets on it, you would lose that ~$4.23 and still have to keep making more bets against a house edge. Now if you can use them on odds at the craps table that would be the best
Math wise I don't think it matters. Making one large bet will just create a ton of variance. Making min bets lowers that variance. I'd rather make 60 $5 bets as opposed to one $300 bet.
Apply this to video poker. Would you run $100 free play on a 25 cent 9/6 JoB game or a $20 9/6 JoB game?
Quote: DonnieeExcellent. That is what I wanted to hear. I would much rather play out my money slowly and actually enjoy my time at the casino instead of going in and out with a max bet.
Same here.
Quote: IbeatyouracesMath wise I don't think it matters.
The math I come up with says it matters by about 0.6%. If that were a video poker game, a lot of people here would say that matters. I would fall on the side that says the ~$1.80 doesn't matter much at all. But I would also fall on the side that says the variance shouldn't matter either.
I do agree that if he can't get good bj rules, DP on craps is the next best option.
Quote: IbeatyouracesUsing Grosjean's link and the best option (bj with expectation of 99.32%), making one $300 bet is worth $297.96 ($300 x 99.32%). Making $5 bets, those are worth $4.966. $4.966 x 60 = $297.96. I get the same value no matter which way you go. The latter has less variance. He's only grinding the promo chips, not the cashable chips he gets on wins.
I do agree that of he can't get good bj rules, DP on craps is the next best option.
Blackjack isn't really my game. It would be pretty boring sitting there flat betting and playing basic strategy for 60+ bets.
If I use a negative progressive betting style on banker bet, it does absolutely nothing am i right? In the end, I am still expected to make $12 per $300 buy in?
Quote: DonnieeBlackjack isn't really my game. It would be pretty boring sitting there flat betting and playing basic strategy for 60+ bets.
If I use a negative progressive betting style on banker bet, it does absolutely nothing am i right? In the end, I am still expected to make $12 per $300 buy in?
Going back to the chart, banker is worth 97.63% for an expected loss of $7.11 on that. So just subtract that amount from your +EV on the free bet chips and you'll have your answer.
This casino offers EZ Bac. If I were to place $200 on banker and $200 on player and let's say $5 on dragon, I will instantly convert $200 promo chips into real money for the price of $5. In the rare case that dragon hits, I will make $200, lose the player bet and push the banker bet but will tip the dealer $5 essentially losing $5.
If I bought in 3 times for a total of $900 in promo chips and $120 in free play, will playing this way be better than actually playing my money in baccarat?
My question is...when should I expect the statistics to kick in so that I will be in the positive relatively close to what we discusssed in this thread?
Quote: DonnieeFirst trip to the casino today since this post. I bought in twice for a total of $600 with an additional $80 in free play. I played a negative progressive betting style of $20,30,40 on banker bets. My results after playing the $600 chips were -$250. I totally understand that I can lose another $200 on my next trip and possibly another $200 the trip aftter that.
My question is...when should I expect the statistics to kick in so that I will be in the positive relatively close to what we discusssed in this thread?
Wow, you can keep buying with the same deal like that?
The only +EV discussion I saw was a slight advantage due to the chip purchase thing, and it looks like you chose baccarat and played banker. You do know it is a negative expectation game?
You should not have lost this much money due to bad variance alone. It really sounds like you simply continued to play longer than you should have. For the first type of chip, you just use them till gone, and you do not use the real chips you collect on wins . The extra $80 in the other chips you couldn't screw up, I don't think. But you could again be using your normal chips you won instead of saving them.
If you decided to keep playing at that point with the won chips, that's up to you, but then you have a -EV situation competing with the initial +EV situation.
If you know you went through the chips correctly, then you had astonishingly bad luck. Or something is rotten in Denmark.
PS: the more I think about it, the more suspicious I get about being allowed to keep buying the chips. Casinos do that when they know they have the edge. Are you sure you described these chips right? Study the subject and use the correct terms.
Quote: odiousgambitWow, you can keep buying with the same deal like that?
The only +EV discussion I saw was a slight advantage due to the chip purchase thing, and it looks like you chose baccarat and played banker. You do know it is a negative expectation game?
You should not have lost this much money due to bad variance alone. It really sounds like you simply continued to play longer than you should have. For the first type of chip, you just use them till gone, and you do not use the real chips you collect on wins . The extra $80 in the other chips you couldn't screw up, I don't think. But you could again be using your normal chips you won instead of saving them.
If you decided to keep playing at that point with the won chips, that's up to you, but then you have a -EV situation competing with the initial +EV situation.
If you know you went through the chips correctly, then you had astonishingly bad luck. Or something is rotten in Denmark.
PS: the more I think about it, the more suspicious I get about being allowed to keep buying the chips. Casinos do that when they know they have the edge. Are you sure you described these chips right? Study the subject and use the correct terms.
Yes I am sure. We discussed the chips for a long time.
I did not play any of my own chips. May I ask you why the variance alone can't be that bad? I'm placing $20,30, and $40 bets which isn't that small. I ran through $600 worth of chips relatively quickly. Overall, i probably placed less than 60 bets.
Quote: IbeatyouracesThis is why I suggested the best games you can get from the chart I provided and minimum betting it.
In a nutshell, the bigger your bets, the more variance and vice versa. That's what it seeems. Confirm if I am correct.
Nevertheless, I am still +EV as long as I never bet anything more than my promo chips. Correct?
Quote: DonnieeIn a nutshell, the bigger your bets, the more variance and vice versa. That's what it seeems. Confirm if I am correct.
Nevertheless, I am still +EV as long as I never bet anything more than my promo chips. Correct?
True. If your goal is for profit, like an AP, you want to minimize variance though.
Quote: IbeatyouracesTrue. If your goal is for profit, like an AP, you want to minimize variance though.
That makes perfect sense. But the reason I bet higher is to play through the chips faster. Do you know how long I will have to stay to play $5 minimum for $600?
I am not concerned with the money I lose now or tomorrow or the next weeek. As long as I know I'm +ev
Quote: DonnieeThat makes perfect sense. But the reason I bet higher is to play through the chips faster. Do you know how long I will have to stay to play $5 minimum for $600?
I am not concerned with the money I lose now or tomorrow or the next weeek. As long as I know I'm +ev
Do you have to play all of the promo chips first before they give you the free bet chips?
Quote: IbeatyouracesDo you have to play all of the promo chips first before they give you the free bet chips?
No we get them at the same time.
Quote: DonnieeNo we get them at the same time.
That's good. Just take your time.
The AP in me would try to resell the promo chips and get my $300 in cash back. 😎
Quote: DonnieeYes I am sure. We discussed the chips for a long time.
I did not play any of my own chips. May I ask you why the variance alone can't be that bad? I'm placing $20,30, and $40 bets which isn't that small. I ran through $600 worth of chips relatively quickly. Overall, i probably placed less than 60 bets.
I'll use Wizard's terminology, see link. Well, I guess I haven't investigated what to expect with the variance on Non-negotiables, or Promotional chips either for that matter. I only have experience with the latter, and Match-Play coupons, myself. I haven't seen what to expect spelled out, but the nature of a Non-neg might lend itself to high variance by the fact that they get replayed possibly over and over [but those times are on wins, so you'd think ...]
I'm still suspicious. Since the casino knows it is +EV to the player, typically* the rules would be that you can only buy the deal once in some period of time, often a whole month. Especially if the offer is available to anyone. Is that the case?
*unless I am very much mistaken. Any input from others on this?
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/
Quote: DonnieeIt's nice to know that if I have some time to kill, the best way would be to grind out $5 bets on a blackjack game.
IF you can get good rules. If not, DP on craps.
